167
FXUS65 KRIW 101009
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
409 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures persist across the state today with an
  unsettled and active weekend ahead.

- Showers will be possible throughout the day today but fairly scattered
  in nature.

- An influx of moisture arrives Saturday which will lead to more widespread
  precipitation and a nearing cold front may produce scattered
  thunderstorms during the afternoon.

- Mountain snowfall will occur Saturday night into Sunday with
  the potential for wet accumulating snow along western valleys
  Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Another day of warm above normal temperatures across the Cowboy
State. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s west of the Divide
and low to mid 70s east of the Divide. The period of dry and quiet
weather we saw for the first half of the week looks to come to an
end today. Tropical moisture begins to funnel across the region
today, leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day. The first round of precipitation will move across the state
this morning with showers developing across southwestern WY around
0700 MDT. The best chances (30-60%) for precipitation is expected to
be across southern and western WY with lesser chances (20-40%) over
central and northern WY. A second round of precipitation but this
time more convectively driven will be possible during the afternoon
with southwestern WY having the best chances (20-40%) for seeing any
showers or storms. Overall, CAMs have lowered precipitation across
the state for today with the bulk of the moisture not arriving until
later in the day on Saturday.

As mentioned earlier, the main event looks to start Saturday
with the bulk of tropical moisture entering the region at this
time. The trough that is currently digging across the PACNW will
also begin to enter the area Saturday. This will begin to
introduce stronger southwesterly/westerly flow, which should
enhance dynamics across favorable locations such as western WY.
Showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
Saturday morning. However, a cold front will begin to near the
state by the afternoon. Ahead of the front, storm initiation is
likely to begin as it moves west to east through the afternoon
and evening. Western WY will have the best chances (20-40%) for
seeing storms develop with the main limiting factor being the
amount of daytime heating that can occur. Either way the
stronger storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds,
hail, and heavy downpours. These showers and storms will
continue to spread east into central portions of the state
through the afternoon and evening. A potent upper-level jet is
expected to move over the region along with the frontal passage.
700mb winds may be quite strong in some locations, with models
currently highlighting the Wind Corridor from Rock Springs to
Casper forecasted to range from 50 to 60 knots, leading to some
strong gusts of 35 to 45 mph at the surface. The timing for
these winds look to be late Saturday into the early morning
hours Sunday.

Focusing back over western WY, the frontal passage will be the
start of a period of moderate to heavy precipitation. Favorable
westerly/southwesterly flow will crank up during the evening
Saturday and morning hours Sunday. Upsloping will occur across
the western mountain ranges such as the Tetons, Salt/Wyoming
Ranges, Gros Ventres, the higher elevations of YNP such as
Pitchstone Plateau and the western slopes of the Wind River and
Absaroka Mountains. Initially, temperatures look to be too warm
for snow but as colder air fills in behind the frontal passage
a transition over to snow is expected by Saturday evening. Cold
700mb temperatures of minus 6C to minus 8C move into western WY
and gradually spread east throughout Sunday. Snow levels will
quickly drop over western WY Saturday night into early Sunday
morning going from 10,000 feet to less than 6,000 feet in a
matter of hours. This surge of cold air may lead to a transition
over from cold rain to wet snow in locations such as the Star
and Jackson Valleys Sunday morning. Snow accumulation will be
possible for western valleys, but due to warm ground
temperatures it may be limited. Currently, there looks to be a
20-40% chance for 1 inch of snow accumulation along western
valleys. As for higher elevations, snowfall amounts look to be
nearing Advisory amounts with northern ranges such as the
Tetons, Gros Ventre, and portions of the higher elevations in
YNP having around a (40-60%) chance of seeing 6 or more inches
of snow. So at this time no highlights will be issued, but they
may need to be issued during the day Friday or Saturday night.

A brief lull in activity looks to occur Monday into Tuesday. Cold
temperatures may be possible as the trough moves out the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. There are early indications of widespread
sub freezing morning lows possible for Monday. Western WY may see
temperatures in the low 20s and possibly upper teens with lows
around the upper 20s east of the Divide. Still being a few days out
this may be subject to change. It is worth keeping an eye on
especially with some areas still not seeing a hard freeze yet.
Chilly temperatures will persist across the region with highs likely
in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday. The upcoming week is looking
messing and active with the potential for another disturbance moving
in from Canada for the middle of next week. Timing and impacts are
still very uncertain at this point and a better idea of what to
expect wont happen for another few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

BKN-OVC FL100 continues to spread northward this morning. Have
left TEMPO in the forecast for terminals west of the Divide
through 18Z. This area of rain will have a lot of trouble
getting east of the Divide, so no rain mention here, except for
a low possibility for KLND. Once this wave moves through early
afternoon, remainder of the day remains mostly cloudy with
ragged clouds at all levels. additional precipitation will be
isolated west of the Divide after 06Z and confidence remains too
low to include in any forecast at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...LaVoie