681
FXUS65 KRIW 052336
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
536 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening.

-Gusty winds continue today, but will be gradually decreasing by
 this evening.

- Warm and dry conditions continue through most of the upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The cold front has moved across portions of the state this
morning, with varying effects ahead and behind it. Most of
northern WY remain in lighter northerly flow, with gustier
northwest winds farther east in Wyoming this afternoon. South
of the front, winds remain gusty from the west. Winds have
gusted 30 to 40 mph along I-80 this afternoon. These winds will
decrease finally this evening as the midlevel trough continues
east across the Canadian Prairies.

Cooling from the front will be short-lived across northern WY,
as H5 ridging builds right back across the central US starting
tomorrow. Hate to sound like a broken record, but there`s really
nothing around to dislodge this dominant pattern in the
foreseeable future. Temperatures will increase each afternoon
this week, reaching the 70s and lower 80s through Friday. Models
try to bring a new shortwave into southwest WY late Monday night
into Tuesday, which may bring some increased cloud cover and a
sprinkle or two, but that will do little more than taunt us. The
lack of systems passing nearby will also keep wind profiles
lower across the state for most of the upcoming week.

Longer term models to point out a deeper trough trying to dive
south out of Canada Friday or into next weekend. It`s a long
ways off, but something to keep our eyes on, trying to find some
relief for the heat and extended fire season...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Gusty winds will decrease quickly after sunset. Smoke is
another aviation weather concern, with KRIW and KLND dealing
with reduced visibility due to the Pack Trail fire to the west.
The sky remains clear of clouds over the next 24 hours, but
patches of thick wildfire smoke could act similar to cloud
layers at times. Satellite imagery currently shows the thickest
smoke over the Wind River Basin. Smoke layers AGL will likely
thin overnight, but could settle in valleys and basins, with
some reductions in surface visibility lingering at KRIW and
KLND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Red Flag Warnings remain in place through this evening for much of
the region. Very strong winds will continue through the rest of the
night and persist through the day Saturday. Gusts 60 to 70 mph have
been observed across the Absarokas and Bighorn Mountains, as well as
the southern Wind River Mountains consistently through the night. As
expected, RH recoveries overnight have been extremely poor with RHs
remaining around 15 to 20%.

A dry cold front will move through the region this morning. The
front should reach the MT/WY border around 0230-0300 then continue
to move southward through the rest of the morning. The front should
reach the Continental Divide between 0900 and 1000 where it will
stall and wash out. Behind the front, northerly winds with gusts 60+
mph have been observed across portions of MT. Though strongest
frontal winds should stay in MT, gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected
with the front. Gusty northerly winds with gusts 25 to 35 mph will
persist through the morning and into the afternoon across much of
the region east of the Divide.

Meanwhile, west of the Divide, westerly winds will persist. Again,
gusts of 60 to 70 mph have been observed across higher elevations
overnight. Wind speeds will generally decrease through the day, but
gusts 25 to 35 across lower elevations and 40 to 50 mph across the
higher elevations will remain common through much of the day. Winds
will decrease and become light, less than 10 to 15 mph after sunset
this evening.

Dry and warm weather will continue through next week, but winds will
remain light with gusts generally less than 20 mph. Wetting rain
chances will remain at 0% through the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ275>277-
280>283-285>287-300-414-415.

Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Monday for WYZ010-016>018.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ278-279-
288-289-416.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...VandenBoogart
FIRE WEATHER...Hensley