586
FXUS65 KRIW 191050
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
450 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal and chilly temperatures across the Cowboy State
  this morning.

- A weak disturbance will bring the chance for showers mainly
  across western and northern WY on Sunday and then once again
  on Monday.

- The upcoming week will have multiple chances for light
  precipitation with temperatures gradually warming back to
  seasonable values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Clear skies and recent snowpack has created favorable conditions for
chilly temperatures to return to much of the Cowboy State this
morning. Forecasted temperatures this morning are well below normal
ranging from the low to upper teens, with some isolated locations
even nearing the single digits. Fortunately, temperatures begin to
rebound today with highs for most warming back up into the 40s and
the northern half of the CWA possibly seeing 50s. Lingering snowpack
will melt throughout the day as skies remain mostly clear with
plenty of warm April sunshine. Clouds do begin to move into western
WY by the evening and gradually spread east Saturday night. This is
apart of a weak disturbance that is expected to near the region by
Sunday with showers moving into the state early Sunday morning.
Showers look to start across western WY and gradually spread
eastward through the morning and afternoon. Precipitation is
expected to be mostly scattered in nature with the best chances (30-
60%) across western and northern WY. However, it should not be a
washout with little moisture being associated with this disturbance,
so any holiday plans will likely not be in jeopardy. Temperatures on
Sunday will return to seasonable values ranging in the low 50s for
most.

The start of next week will see active weather continue across the
region with multiple chances for precipitation. Starting Monday a
shortwave looks to move into the area bringing with it chances for
snow/rain showers. The bulk of the energy associated with this
system is currently forecast to remain north of the state. If this
were to occur impacts will be mainly limited to the western and
northern portions of the CWA. Overall, impacts are expected to be
minor with 1 to 3 inches of wet snow across western mountains and
portions of the Bighorns. Elsewhere, showers will be scattered in
nature with temperatures keeping things in the form of rain across
lower elevations on Monday.

The remainder of the week as mentioned earlier, will be active with
chances for light precipitation. Temperatures are forecast to
continue to gradually warm with highs returning to the upper 50s and
low 60s by Wednesday. As of Saturday morning there does not look to
be any large or impactful system on the horizon as we saw this past
Thursday/Friday. However, if this active jet pattern does continue
it will only be a matter of time before we may see another potent
disturbance develop.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions to start the period and through much of the next
24 hours. Possible fog at most locations to start the period
through mid morning around 16-17Z. However, confidence is ever
decreasing as it has not come to fruition as of yet, despite
the ingredients being there under clear skies, light winds, and
recent precipitation. VCFG will be carried at this time to show
the possibility (<15%). Otherwise, light winds for most under
mainly clear skies. Light gusts up to 18kts at BPI/PNA/CPR/RKS
between 19-02Z during peak heating. Increasing mid level clouds
after sunset around 02Z and especially after 06Z ahead of the
next weaker system. As such, increasing snow chances at JAC to
being towards the end of the period not expected to affect any
other sites west of the Divide until after 12Z Sunday for the
the next TAF cycle.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Lowe