845
FXUS65 KRIW 191035
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
435 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet weather Thursday with a warming trend through
  Saturday.

- Cold front into Sunday with cooler temperatures and limited
  precipitation chances through Monday.

- Warming trend and dry weather expected beyond well into the
  long term forecast with warmer and dryer than average
  conditions probable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

IR currently depicted the main upper level low pushing northeast
across northeastern MT and northwestern ND into Canada with
lingering lower stratus across western Valleys and to the north.
Radar shows just a few lingering rain showers across the
northeast portions of the CWA that continue to dissipate and
push east. Induced ridging will give way to more tranquil
weather conditions behind this system with mainly clear skies
and relatively light winds for Thursday. However, some lingering
low stratus expected for western valleys, especially Jackson
Hole that will eventually burn off with daytime heating by late
morning.

In the meantime, an upper level low cut off across southern
California will continue to slowly push east staying well to the
south. This will allow for a warming trend through Saturday back
to above average for most locations, especially east of the
Divide. As this system moves a bit north of east, it becomes an
open and more progressive wave late Saturday giving way to some
limited precipitation chances across some of the CWA.
Currently, models depict more of the souther half of the CWA
with the best chances with much more limited coverage further
north. What can be had, is a weak cold front early Sunday
morning that will push temperatures back to just below average
to more seasonable for this time of year Sunday and Monday
reinforced by another weak wave early next week.

Beyond Monday, expected ridging to build back into the Rockies
that will see another warming and dry trend through the
remainder of next week into the following weekend. CPC data
depicts a warmer and dryer than average extended outlook for the
remainder of the month and even into early October not helping
in the drought department going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mainly VFR conditions for all TAF sites for the entirety of the
period. JAC is seeing some in and out fog and low stratus below
a mile visibility and 100 feet ceilings. This will burn off soon
after sunrise early in the period lifting to the mid levels with
daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Otherwise, light
winds for all locations less than 10kts with mainly clear skies
becoming clear and calm towards sunset overnight into Friday
morning. No other weather elements expected at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe