986
FXUS65 KRIW 102029
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
129 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming and dry trend through Thursday, with temperatures 10
  to 15 degrees above normal and breezy winds in the afternoon
  hours. Isolated showers very minimal for Bighorn Basin and
  Mtns (<10%).

- Increasing precipitation chances Friday and into the weekend.

- More active pattern beyond the weekend with seasonable
  temperatures and wetter conditions to be had for the longer
  term.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Dense mid to high level cloud cover continues to envelop a large
portion of central WY this afternoon, and it holding down temps
across the Wind River and Bighorn Basins. Some breaks will be
noted in these areas late this afternoon, so a brief warmup will
still occur just before sunset. Remainder of the short-term
forecast is on track, with mild temperatures today through
Thursday before the next winter system for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

WV imagery shows the broad high centered over the southwestern
portions of the country pushing ridging in over the upper
Rockies. IR depicts the high cirrus spilling over said ridge
keeping a bit of cloud cover overnight into Monday. Northwest
and mainly dry flow through Thursday but with a couple very
minor subtle shortwaves that has some isolated (<10%) chances
for showers over the Bighorn Basin and Mountains Monday
afternoon and evening, possibly Tuesday as well. Nothing of
note with this if it even comes to fruition. Regardless, above
average temperatures, breezy winds, and mainly clear skies to be
had through Thursday.

A GOA low will begin to push near the Pacific Northwest
coastline come Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring a more
westerly upper level flow to the CWA. Increasing divergence
aloft will allow for the L/W trough to deepen as it pushes
slowly east into the longer term forecast. Increasing moisture
come Friday morning with a more southwesterly flow through the
weekend. Increasing precipitation chances as a result, mountain
snow and valley rain west of the Divide to mainly dry conditions
to the east. Longer term model solutions suggest a bit of
disparity from model to model and run to run, so details are of
low confidence at this time for timing and accumulations. This
will have to be a wait and see approach updating forecasts in
the coming days closer to the event.

Regardless, cooler temperatures back to seasonable for this time
of year in mid-November as the upper level pattern becomes more
active even beyond Sunday with a multitude of trough-ridge
couplets. A wetter and more average temperature trend looks to
be had mid to end of the month IAW CPC guidance as the main
finger of the PFJ looks to stay more south as it has been
propagating through the upper third of the country. In the end,
enjoy the warmer than average and dry conditions through
Thursday as the long term looks to become more like November
should be year to year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 933 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR Conditions continue to prevail through the next 24 hours. BKN
cirrus decks continue through much of the period as a shortwave
slides southward tonight. There could be occasional high mountain
obscurations above FL080 across the northern WY mountain ranges as a
result of this, but there are no precipitation chances expected near
any terminals. Winds remain mostly light through the period, with
the exception being KCPR, where southwest winds gusting to around 25
to 30kts will be persistent through the rest of the day and
overnight. Gusts finally decrease towards sunrise Tuesday morning.
KRKS and KCOD will also see some west winds 10 to 12kts with gusts
up to around 20kts this afternoon and overnight, but gusts will not
be as persistent as at KCPR.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Straub
DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Hensley