415
FXUS65 KRIW 071051
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
351 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend, with dry weather, through this weekend.

- Next weather system begins to move in Monday, with gusty winds
  and a quick shot for rain/snow. The best snow chances are
  over the western mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

Quiet weather through the next few days. A cut off low remains to
the south, over the Four Corners area, allowing some slight ridging
to occur over Wyoming. As a result, today remains dry, with high
temperatures peaking 2 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Light
winds will result in an overall pleasant fall day, even with
temperatures a bit below normal. There are some early indications of
fog Thursday night into Friday morning, so have added a little fog
into the forecast, though confidence is low at this time. Friday
remains much the same as today, with temperatures trending up once
again.

Temperatures continue to trend up for Saturday, with near
normal highs in the 40s and 50s. That closed low to our south
finally begins to move northeast. Its main impacts stay away
from the area. However, some light rain/snow is possible over
far eastern Sweetwater County, up through Natrona County, and
into southeastern Johnson County. Models are still unsure with
the low`s exact track, so confidence remains low in if, and
where, these precipitation chances will occur. Currently have
10% to 30% chances in the forecast Saturday morning and
afternoon for the aforementioned locations. Overall, liquid
amounts remain under 0.10 inches, if anything does fall. Highest
totals would be over Casper Mountain, where there is about 10%
chance for higher than 0.10 inches of liquid equivalent
precipitation. A breezy afternoon, with gusts 15 to 20 mph also
occurs for the Wind Corridor Saturday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens.

Sunday warms further. A little moisture ahead of the next weather
system may be enough to produce some snow showers over the western
Wyoming mountains starting Sunday morning. These chances (15% to
40%) continue into Monday. Any showers from this would likely result
in little, to no, meaningful precipitation. Afternoon winds across
the Wind Corridor will be stronger than Saturday.

The next bigger weather system moves in starting Monday.
Precipitation chances increase across western Wyoming late morning
and afternoon Monday. These chances will spread across the area
Monday night and into Tuesday morning as a cold front sweeps
through. Highs Monday will likely be the warmest over the next week,
ahead of the cold front, with colder temperatures returning
Tuesday, post-front. It`s too early for confidence in details
with this system. Currently, models are keeping it an open
trough, with quick progression through the area - bad news for
snow lovers. The western mountains (mainly the Tetons into
southwest Yellowstone) look to be the favored locations for snow
amounts with this quick system. Precipitation chances decrease
into Wednesday, with a chance (30%) of lingering light snow over
the western mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

SKC skies will continue across the forecast area through the TAF
period. Fog is not expected to impact any terminals this morning
or later tonight. There is a small chance (10%) of fog possibly
impacting KJAC from the north off Jenny Lake this morning. Wind
will generally be light at terminals, though with an exception
at KCPR, which will see gusts to around 25 knots between 16Z and
20Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...LaVoie/Myers