753
FNUS75 KREV 231626
FWSREV

Spot Forecast for Rancho Fire...BLM
National Weather Service Reno NV
926 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 PDT on August 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service in Reno.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

* Increasing monsoon moisture will provide scattered showers and
  thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and flash flooding.

* Expect daily chances for thunderstorms each afternoon through at
  least the middle of next week.

* Temperatures will remain seasonably hot this afternoon before a
  cooling trend arrives late weekend into next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. 15-20% chance of
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms, increasing to 65%
                    chance of showers and a 35% chance of thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Max 88.
RH..................Min 20%.
20-Foot Winds.......Winds variable 3-6 mph, then becoming southwest
                    4-9 mph after 1pm local. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms with outflow gusts up to 45 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain....0% increasing to 55% in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...15 increasing to 35% after 3pm.
Mixing Height.......10500-11000ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Light winds becoming southwest 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Ventilation.........Fair to excellent.

TIME (PDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........21     53     53     71
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHC
CWR.............0      30     30     48
Chc of thdr (%).0      10     15     35
Temp............75     82     87     86
RH..............29     24     22     28
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 6    SW 9
20 ft wind gust.10     15     15     15
Eye level wind..S 4    S 4    S 4    S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.6      9      9      9
Mx ht msl (kft).4.1    10     11     11
Transport wind..SW 5   SW 10  SW 10  S 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25     94     94     113
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. 30% chance of thunderstorms early in
                    the evening decreasing to a 10-15% chance
                    of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 49%.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 7-10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chc Wetting Rain....15-20% overnight.
Chance of thunder...25%.
Mixing Height.......2800-3000 ft agl early in the evening.
Transport Winds.....South 10-15 mph shifting to the east after 3
                    am.
Ventilation.........Fair to poor.

TIME (PDT)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........84     84     95     94     94     86
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC         S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     20     20     20
Chc of thdr (%).30     30     15     15     10     10
Temp............80     75     72     71     69     66
RH..............34     38     44     44     49     49
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 8
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     10
Eye level wind..S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.9      9      9      9      9      6
Mx ht msl (kft).2.9    2.9    0.3    0.2    0.2    0.2
Transport wind..S 15   S 15   SW 15  S 10   S 10   E 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35     35     3      2      2      2
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers late in
                    the morning. Showers likely and a chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall
                    and areas of flash flooding possible.
Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 37%.
20-Foot Winds.......Upslope 3-7 mph becoming northwest around 7 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain....5% increasing to 40% in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...30%.
Mixing Height.......200-500 ft agl then 2500-3500 ft agl in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport Winds.....Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    northwest late in the afternoon.
Ventilation.........Poor to fair.

TIME (PDT)      5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........60     60     63     75     75     75
Weather cov.....              S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     10     40     40     40
Chc of thdr (%).10     10     10     30     30     30
Temp............65     65     70     74     76     77
RH..............49     49     49     44     41     40
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    SW 6   NE 6   NE 6   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     15
Eye level wind..S 4    S 4    SW 4   NE 4   NE 4   NW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.6      6      6      6      6      9
Mx ht msl (kft).0.2    0.2    1.0    3.7    3.7    2.5
Transport wind..SW 5   SW 5   S 5    SW 10  SW 10  NW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      1      6      26     26     17
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   MRGL

$$

Forecaster...Fuentes
Requested by...Rancho Fire IC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2520510.0/REV
.DELDT 08/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vtartaglia@blm.gov