061
FXUS65 KREV 300859
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
159 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Slight cooling today before temperatures rise well-above
  average through mid-week.

* Locally breezy northeasterly winds are expected into the early
  morning, mainly for areas near the Oregon border and the Basin
  and Range.

* A slow cooling trend and some afternoon breezes are expected
  late next week, but with continued above average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our calm weather pattern continues this upcoming week, with little
to no concerns weather-wise. Due to a passing front/trough on
Sunday, we`ll see around a 4 degree drop in today`s high
temperatures. As of this writing, winds are still breezy in
central and northern Washoe County, as well as in Pershing County.
Current gusts are still upwards of 30-40 mph from the north to
northeast. Winds today will remain from the east to northeast, but
will trend downward as the day progresses. Otherwise, it`s sunny
and dry.

An anomalously strong ridge is still poised to move into the
region today into Wednesday. Both low and high temperatures will
increase between 10-15 degrees above normal for the first week of
October. Blended guidance is still holding steady on a 10% chance
for Reno breaking Tuesday`s record high of 93 set in 2010, and a
80% chance for breaking Wednesday`s record high of 90 set back in
2012. We`ll also have mostly sunny skies, light winds, and
continued very dry conditions.

Ensembles are slowing coming into better agreement with the
evolution of the synoptic pattern through the end of the 7-day
forecast period. A zonal flow sets up on Wednesday into Thursday.
This is followed by long-wave ridging pattern across the western
US from Friday through the weekend. There are still differences
between the ensembles into the strength and position of the
aforementioned ridge. This all translates into the slow cooling
trend through the weekend, as well as continued above average
temperatures and no precipitation. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

Some enhanced north to northeast winds are expected through the
early morning, mainly for areas near the Oregon border and the
Basin & Range. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light east to
northeast winds up to 10 kts at all NV and CA terminals this
afternoon.

-McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$