Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
075 FXUS65 KREV 162043 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 143 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * For today, near average temperatures, light breezes, and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorm in the eastern Sierra. * A weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada bringing an increased likelihood of cooler conditions, gusty winds, light rain and mountain snow showers. * Warmer and drier conditions return next week for the 7-10 day outlook. && .DISCUSSION... Today will be the warmest day over the next two days as we`ll have yet another cool weekend. We`ll have some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest this afternoon (15% chance). The SPC has the Sierra crest under general thunderstorms today, although from looking at the CAMs, I don`t see too much of a lightning threat today. SBCAPE is only around 300-400 J/kg and not much upper level support for these storms to really develop and mature. Winds this afternoon will be fairly light as well, only about 10 mph out of the west. Looking ahead to tomorrow and the reason why it`s going to cool down this weekend, is because of another spring low diving south just east of the Sierra over western NV. This trough will pack some upper level diffluence and slightly more CAPE (500-600 J/kg) to give a little more strength to the storms. Storm coverage will progress from NE CA (50-60% showers, 30% lightning), to western NV (60-70% showers, 20-30% lightning), down through northern Mineral Co (40% chance, 20% lightning). Less intense showers will pop up over the Sierra crest, so be aware that there`s still a 20% chance for showers and 10% chance for lightning Saturday afternoon up there. Winds will also be a nuisance tomorrow afternoon, gusting up to 30- 40 mph out of the NW, while Sierra ridges will be gusting to 70-80 mph. DCAPE looks to be around 600-900 J/kg, so expect outflow gusts around these storms to be up to 40 mph. Strong winds remain likely this weekend, with westerly gusts on Saturday shifting to northerly on Sunday. Saturday`s winds appear to be driven by stronger mid-level flow, with soundings continuing to hint at a mountaintop inversion that could enhance surface gusts. Expect widespread gusts of 35-45 mph, with 50+ mph possible in wind-prone areas, especially south of US-50 along US-395 and US-95. Choppy lake waters are likely, especially on Pyramid Lake, Saturday afternoon. The low then moves out on Sunday, leaving high temperatures the coolest they`ll be for the next 7 days. Lower valleys top out in the upper 60`s and Sierra valleys upper 50`s. Winds will increase Sunday as well, a stiff N-NW flow with gusts up to 30-35 mph in the afternoon across western NV. A warming trend will commence Monday and push high temperatures into the mid-80`s by Wednesday. Zonal flow will persist throughout this week, keeping us dry and high temperatures in the 80`s through Friday. -Justin && .AVIATION... There`s a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms near KTRK/KTVL/KMMH this afternoon. Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts up to 12 kts at all area terminals in the afternoon. Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds, light valley rain, and light mountain snow. There is an increased trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning. -Justin/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$