533
FXUS65 KREV 051946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1246 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

* Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend into the
  middle of next week with low chances of showers and thunderstorms
  along the eastern Sierra through the weekend.

* A cooling trend will bring near October averages once again. Late
  next week, an approaching trough may produce increased winds with
  lower forecast confidence for rain potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure returns across the West with lighter winds and a trend
up in temperatures after the slight cooldown yesterday. Wind gusts
in the afternoon will be in the 15-25 mph range. Daytime highs will
be quite warm again with lower elevations in the mid 80s to near 90
and near the 80s in the Sierra communities over the weekend. Smoke
from the Peak fire may filer into the eastern Sierra near Walker
and Bridgeport this afternoon and evening.

Overall, dry conditions will be the dominant feature this weekend
but there will be slight chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. HREF guidance shows mostly
cumulus buildups along the Sierra for the afternoon, but we can`t
rule out a virga shower or two for areas south of Highway 50. By
Sunday and Monday, there are slightly higher chances (5-15%) for a
few showers and thunderstorms to pop off along the Eastern Sierra
Sunday and then along the OR border and Eastern Sierra for Monday.

By mid to late next week, simulations are hinting at some potential
for cooler, more breezy, and possibly wetter conditions as a trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. Ensemble clusters are in
decent agreement through Wednesday, but deviations arise by
Thursday, particularly with the depth of the trough. There are also
some decent timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF with regard to
any precipitation potential. For now, the blended guidance
highlights some breezes by late week, a cooldown, and some low
chances for precipitation. Latest blended continues to limit the
probability for measurable rain (at least 0.10") to far northeast CA-
northwest NV next Friday to (8-10% chances).

Following the trough passage, a strong signal for high pressure
across the West returns in the ensemble clusters. The high pressure
signal continues into mid-October with a heavy lean toward warm and
dry conditions.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, light winds and VFR conditions prevail through at least the
middle of next week. Winds will stay around 20 kt or less each
afternoon at the main terminals.

There will be some afternoon cumulus clouds over the weekend and
into Monday. There will be a low chance (5-15%) of showers and
thunderstorms for the eastern Sierra Sunday and Monday.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$