633
FXUS65 KREV 271937
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1237 PM PDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong southwest wind gusts continue into this evening, with
  blowing dust potential for the Basin and Range.

* Showers will move across the Sierra crest and northeast CA at
  times through late Friday night.

* A stronger storm may bring heavier Sierra snow and gusty winds
  late Sunday into Monday, with unsettled weather likely
  continuing through the first few days of April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The ongoing wind event has produced gusts of 60-70 mph for wind
prone sections of US-395 between Susanville and Carson City and
ridge top gusts over 100 mph at times. These winds will continue
into early this evening before subsiding, so continue to use
caution on area roads and be aware of any travel restrictions if
driving a high profile vehicle.

Snow and rain shower activity will continue near and west of the
Sierra crest and northward into western Lassen County at times
through Friday night. Snowfall in higher elevations will be spotty
with totals generally in the 2-6" range, although accumulation on
roads will be mainly limited to heavier shower activity occurring
overnight into the morning hours. As the main low pressure trough
axis passes through far northern CA and northern NV Friday night,
bands of rain and snow showers are expected to move across areas
north of Susanville and Gerlach, with light accumulations up to 1
inch in these areas. Elsewhere, little or no rainfall is expected
with this storm through Friday night as shallow moisture depth
will keep most of western NV southward to Mono County shadowed
out.

Saturday will feature a short break between storms with lighter
winds and temperatures near late March averages, allowing for
favorable travel conditions over the Sierra passes.

The next storm is projected to arrive during the Sunday-Monday
time frame. Initially, the onset of precip during the day Sunday
looks to be light and confined to the Sierra and northeast CA/far
northwest NV with limited travel impacts. However, the latest
ensemble guidance is favoring a push of heavier Sierra snow and
lower elevation rain from late Sunday night through much of
Monday. Early projections bring about a 60-70% chance of 12 or
more inches along the Sierra crest around Tahoe, dropping to
40-50% for Alpine/northern Mono counties and 10-20% for southern
Mono County, while down to lake level in the Tahoe basin the most
likely scenario currently produces 4-8" of new snow for Monday. A
period of stronger winds with gusts similar to today is also
possible on Monday, although the duration may be shorter due to
the more favorable conditions for precip spreading farther east
of the Sierra crest into portions of western NV.

Looking further into next week, additional storms remain in the
queue to reach the Sierra/western NV, accompanied by a decent
Pacific moisture feed. The main question is whether the Sierra
remains in the warm sector of a subtropical atmospheric river with
high snow levels leading to increased hydrologic concerns, or if
enough cold air filters in to lower the snow levels and limit
runoff but increase travel impacts around the Sierra-Tahoe
regions. The latest ensemble guidance has trended more toward the
cooler scenario, although there is still the potential for a
period of higher elevation rain before the colder air mass
arrives. The timing of this system is also varied with Wednesday
appearing to have the highest overall precip and wind chances, but
some scenarios also include Tuesday and/or Thursday. In any case,
April is looking to begin with plenty of active weather across
the eastern Sierra and western NV. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* Ridgetop gusts from the SW 60-70 kts along the Sierra crest
  will continue this evening. Look for periods of LLWS, and
  mountain wave turbulence bringing aviation impacts at all main
  terminals into the evening. FL100 winds from the SW at 20-30 kts
  through Friday are projected to decrease gradually to less than
  10-15 kts overnight Friday through Saturday morning.

* Showers forming over the Sierra overnight through Friday morning
  will produce lower VIS/CIGS and brief MVFR airfield conditions
  along with some terrain obscurations around Sierra terminals.
  Through Friday evening, Sierra terminals (KTRK-KTVL) have a
  20-40% chance for snow accumulations up to an inch on runways.
  -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>005.

CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ070>073.

&&

$$