761
FXUS65 KREV 132018
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
118 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An early season storm will bring impactful Sierra snow today
  through early Wednesday with periods of rain for lower
  elevations.

* Below average temperatures continue through this week with drier
  weather later in the week.

* Another chance for valley rain and mountain snow may arrive by
  late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snowflakes were seen flying across the Sierra in the Tahoe Basin
already today, per road cams! Sierra snow showers and valley rain
showers will be on and off through much of today. The low pressure
system that is bringing these shower chances today is expected to
track inland tonight; as such, we can expect more intense periods
of snow along the Sierra late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Snow ranging up to 2 feet can be expected along the
Sierra crest of the Tahoe Basin and Mono county. To go along with
this, a Winter Weather Advisory and a Winter Storm Warning are in
effect for the Tahoe Basin and Mono county, respectively, through
early Wednesday morning. Please see the products for more details.

This "transition season" that we`re currently in has resulted in
model uncertainty on the track of the aforementioned low pressure
system. If the low dips farther south than projected, we could
see less snow in the Tahoe Basin Tuesday (up to 12" along the
crest in the Tahoe Basin). On the flip side, if it stays more
north, we could even see some snow up in NE CA (1-3" in the
northern Sierra with upwards of 18" above 7000 ft in the Tahoe
Basin), though confidence remains low. The more northerly track
could even see some snow in and around the Quad Counties area,
especially Virginia City. We`ll continue tracking the low system
and update the forecast accordingly; come back here to stay up to
date!

Rain chances will be more widespread Tuesday with the best
chances after noon (>80% chance rain in Reno). Current forecasted
precipitation totals show up to a three quarters of an inch in
Reno and across much of the Basin and Range with higher amounts
localized along the higher terrain. NE CA communities will see
less, with locally up to 0.2-0.4" possible.

Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will continue to be 15-20
degrees below normal with overnight lows below freezing through
at least Thursday morning. After Wednesday afternoon, drier
conditions will return as the low pressure moves out of the area.
Daytime highs will come back up to near mid-October normals by
this weekend. Long-range guidance shows another low pressure
system dropping down from British Columbia as early as Sunday,
bringing chances for valley rain, mountain snow, cooler
temperatures, and gusty winds. Stay tuned for more details as we
get closer.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

Spotty showers (-SHRA for Sierra Front terminals, KTRK/KTVL, -SHSN
for KMMH) today, bringing occasional CIG/VIS drops below VFR
conditions. After 06Z this evening, precip will switch to -SHRASN
for KTRK/KTVL, which will continue through at least 14/16Z. KMMH
will see -SHSN in the same time period. Sierra Front terminals can
expect greater -RA chances early Tuesday after 10Z, continuing
through much of Tuesday.

Localized LLWS will be possible for KMMH today between
14/02Z-14/12Z. Light snow accumulations will be possible for
Sierra terminals, mainly overnight tonight.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ073.

&&

$$