717
FXUS65 KREV 011943
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1243 PM PDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Continued moderate to heavy snow in the Sierra with travel
  disruptions through the evening. Snow showers into Western
  Nevada with light accumulations possible.

* Cold with more isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Hard
  freezes expected for Western Nevada valleys and urban areas.

* Warming and drying trend this weekend into next week with above
  normal temperatures favored. Possible increases in stream
  flows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Unstable airmass over CA yielding continued moderate to heavy
  snow showers into the Sierra. Latest HREF shows that potential
  continuing into mid-evening so current advisories/warnings look
  good. Snowfall rates at passes of 1-2" expected. Extensive
  travel disruptions will result. Snow rates like that will
  overcome warming from the higher April 1st sun angle.

* Snow showers will spillover into W Nevada through this evening.
  While not as heavy as yesterday`s squalls, there is about a
  20-40% probability of a light accumulation of 0.1 to 0.5". This
  could cause issues for the evening commute, especially after
  sunset, and residual slick spots for Wednesday morning.

* Cold trough remains overhead Wednesday but with more limited
  forcing, rain/snow showers should be more isolated in nature.
  Similar on Thursday. Overall a 20-30% probability of measurable
  snow, mainly for mountain and foothill areas.

* Well below normal temperatures projected through Friday
  morning. Main impact will be high risk of hard freezes for W
  Nevada valley and urban areas. Probabilities for sub-25 degrees
  range from 35% at Reno Airport to 60-85% at Yerington and
  Lovelock. Any early season vegetation and irrigation systems
  should be protected.

* Ridge builds over the CA/NV region starting this weekend into
  next week. This should deflect heavier precipitation systems to
  our north, but guidance is showing a little brush-by on Sunday-
  Monday that yields light showers north of Susanville.

* Otherwise the story will be warming Sunday onward as winds turn
  more W/SW. 30-50% odds for highs above 70 starting Sunday in W
  Nevada with similar numbers for 80+ starting next Wednesday.
  "Warm Spring" returns, at least for a little bit. Could see some
  minor rises on streams and rivers next week as lower reaches of
  snowpack start to melt.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* High probability for IFR/LIFR conditions through 6z/Wed in the
  Sierra (especially TRK and TVL) with convective snow showers
  persisting. Latest HREF 50th percentile showing snowfall rates
  of 0.5 to 1" per hour so runway accumulations likely especially
  after sunset. For MMH confidence in snow and flight conditions
  is lower as models are showing more shadowing that far south,
  but at least one period of IFR snow remains likely (60% odds).

* For W Nevada airfields, more isolated snow showers are
  projected through this evening. These will be more hit/miss and
  less intense than yesterday`s squalls, but a 30 minute period of
  IFR conditions is possible (40% odds). Odds for runway
  accumulations are low but not zero, showing about 20%
  probability of 0.1" at RNO mainly after sunset, for example.

* Precip generally winding down after midnight. Renewed showers,
  though more isolated, forecast for tomorrow afternoon and
  evening. Some brief MVFR/IFR periods possible. W/SW winds will
  also remain breezy through tonight, with LLWS and turbulence
  likely, especially for leeside sites like RNO and MMH.

-Chris


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

&&

$$