893
FXUS65 KREV 101105
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Today will be warmer, but a cold front arriving this weekend will
  usher in stronger breezes and cooler conditions.

* A few showers are possible near the Oregon border today, with a
  very low end chance of snow showers elsewhere tonight bringing
  little to no accumulation. Mainly dry conditions are expected
  through next week.

* Significant winter storms or substantial snowfall are unlikely
  to occur through at least mid-month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A brief warm-up is on tap today as weakening east winds give way to
west-southwest breezes, allowing temperatures to rise above seasonal
norms. However, this warming will be short-lived as a cold front
moves in tonight, ushering in cooler temperatures for the weekend.

Today and Weekend:

* While this cold front is expected to be mostly dry, there is a
  very slight chance (<10%) of light snow showers as it moves
  south across western Nevada and the Sierra Front tonight. Most
  areas will see little to no accumulation, though a few heavier
  showers could produce up to a half inch of snow in localized
  spots.

* Today will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs in
  the upper 40s to mid-50s across lower elevations. However, a cold
  front arriving this evening will bring temperatures back to near
  mid-January averages for the weekend, with highs in the 40s for
  most areas of western NV and 30s for Sierra valleys. Nights will
  feel particularly chilly, with lows dropping into the teens and
  20s in western NV valleys, and cold-prone Sierra valley locales
  like Truckee and Bridgeport could see near to sub-zero readings.

* In addition to the cooling trend, northeast-to-east winds will
  strengthen over Sierra ridges late Saturday into Sunday. Gusts
  along the crest could reach as high as 80-100 mph, creating
  hazardous conditions for high-elevation recreation. Valleys may
  experience occasional gusts of 20-30 mph, particularly in parts of
  Mineral and southern Mono counties.

Next Week:

* A continued cooling trend is expected early next week, with Monday
  and Tuesday being the coldest days. Highs will struggle to exceed
  the low 40s in most areas, and Tuesday morning lows could dip into
  the low teens and even single digits.

* The weather will remain predominantly dry next week, aside from
  low-end (~10%) chances of light showers near the Oregon border and
  along the Sierra crest early Monday. Winds will remain gusty on
  Sierra ridges into midweek before subsiding by Wednesday, allowing
  valley inversions to strengthen and temperatures to slowly rebound
  through the latter half of the week.

Looking Ahead:

* Ensemble guidance strongly favors dry conditions through at
  least the middle of the month, with no significant winter storms
  or meaningful snowfall expected. There is a slight signal for a
  more active weather pattern to develop later in January, but
  confidence remains low at this time.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary concern will be LLWS and mountain wave turbulence
developing this afternoon and persisting into the weekend. Winds at
FL100 will strengthen to 35-45 kts out of the west by late this
afternoon (after 21Z) before diminishing and shifting to a north-
northwest direction after 03Z Saturday.

Near the surface, a cold front will move through the regional
terminals between 06Z and 12Z Saturday, bringing a very slight
chance of isolated snow showers with little to no accumulation
expected, although a few heavier bursts could produce up to half
an inch. This period will also create an additional window for
LLWS.

Beyond these impacts, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the weekend.

-Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$