302
FXUS65 KREV 021914
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1214 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light snow showers possible through Thursday, mainly in the
  mountains.

* Cold temperatures with hard freezes widespread through Friday
  morning.

* Warming trend starting this weekend, with well above normal
  temperatures much of next week. A few showers possible Monday
  mainly north of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Isolated rain/snow showers will continue today with cold trough
  overhead coupled with embedded shortwaves. Most of the activity
  will be in the mountains per latest HREF. Light amounts with
  NBM probability of 0.1" snowfall at or under 40%. Trough axis
  slides east Thursday but enough cool air aloft could yield a
  couple mountain showers but probabilities are even lower, at or
  under 20%.

* Hard freezes remain widespread Thursday morning even in urban
  areas, with odds for sub-25 degrees ranging from 40% at RNO to
  60%+ in Minden, Fallon, Yerington areas. Friday AM is chilly but
  lower risk of hard freezes, 10% at RNO and 20-40% in W Nevada
  valleys.

* With recent moisture and clearing skies Thursday morning,
  freezing fog is likely (60%+) for normally prone valleys such as
  Truckee, Sierra Valley, and possibly (20-30%) for Tahoe basin
  and around Reno, N Valleys, Minden.

* Ridge builds in Friday-Sunday with winds shifting from cool
  E/NE Friday (breezy Sierra ridges) to warmer W/SW by Sunday. One
  caveat to a totally dry outlook and warming - models are
  showing a trough swinging through late Sunday into Monday.
  Depending on amplitude of this wave, scenarios range from mostly
  dry with a slight cooling Monday to rain/snow showers as far
  south as I-80 and a more notable cooling Monday. TBD on which
  one wins out. NBM showing 20-30% probability of 0.1" rainfall
  from Tahoe northward in the mountains, 5% at RNO.

* Looking into next week - pretty good confidence in an
  appreciable warmup with ridging over much of CA/NV along with
  mainly W/SW flow at ridgetop. Starting Wednesday NBM has 50-80%
  odds of highs 80+ in W Nevada cities, with decent odds of 70s
  Sunday & Tuesday. This will likely result in lower elevation
  snowpack melting with minor increases in streamflows.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* Isolated rain/snow showers will continue through sundown/3z
  today. Mainly MVFR showers, but a few IFR heavier snow showers
  possible in the mountains (MMH, TVL, TRK), 30% odds. A few
  showers possible again tomorrow afternoon but less coverage, 10%
  or less.

* Otherwise VFR-MVFR clouds across W Nevada including RNO with
  light winds. Clouds look to break up after sunset.

* With recent moisture and clearing skies, fog could be an issue
  Thursday morning after 9z. Especially for TRK (60%+ odds) but
  can`t rule it out around TVL (30%) and in vicinity of
  RNO/RTS/MEV (20%).

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$