380
FXUS65 KREV 040925
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
225 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages for Independence
  Day, with precipitation chances confined closest to the Oregon
  border.

* Breezy westerly winds and dry conditions will allow for elevated
  fire weather as well as recreational maritime concerns this
  afternoon.

* A gradual warming trend begins Saturday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current radar returns report lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms continuing out in northern Washoe County and in
eastern portions of Churchill, Pershing, and Mineral Counties while
the rest of the CWA is mostly dry during the early morning hours
of the Independence Day holiday. The latest CAM projections show
these shower chances tapering off around 3 AM PT. Forecast
guidance shows an upper air low that is currently just off the
coast of OR this morning moving slowly eastward through OR during
the day and staying north of the CWA. This will allow for cooler
temperatures to move into the region for the holiday along with
some shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (15-25%) this
afternoon and evening closer to the OR border (Surprise Valley and
northern Washoe County). While better chances stay north of the
OR state border, the rest of the CWA will be dry with little to
no cloud cover to interrupt any viewing of fireworks in the area
tonight. The forecast calls for western NV valleys to have highs
in the lower to upper 80s range today while Sierra communities
have highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s range. Overnight low
temperatures across the region range from the lower 40s in the
higher elevations of the Sierra to the middle 50s in the valleys
of western NV.

Breezy afternoon winds out of the west look to accompany this
cooldown today with area winds gusting up to 25-30 mph with ridge
winds up to around 50 mph. Area lakes particularly Donner Lake,
Frenchman Lake, and the Lahontan Reservoir could see gusts of 20-25
mph (just below advisory criteria) between 11 AM and 9 PM causing
wave heights of 1-2 feet, so please use caution if on the area lakes
to celebrate the holiday. These winds in conjunction with low
minimum relative humidity values may also allow for some elevated
fire conditions with a few hours of localized critical fire weather
possible today in western NV (See Fire Weather section for more
details).

For the holiday weekend, forecast guidance still has a high
pressure area developing over the Desert Southwest that will
contribute to dry conditions and a gradual warm up. The high
pressure area slowly retrogrades from the Four Corners back
towards the Las Vegas area next week. This will bring back well
above average afternoon temperatures for the second week of July.
The latest NBM probabilities show the lower valleys in the NV
Basin and Range having a 60-80% chance of reaching the century
mark on Friday while the middle to upper 90s appears to be a good
bet for the workweek days leading up to it. While conditions look
to stay mostly dry, afternoon diurnal showers cannot be
completely ruled out next week. Some longer range models also show
a weak upper air disturbance passing through the region on
Wednesday that could briefly interrupt the dry weather pattern.
Will continue to monitor this and provide details as they become
available. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today throughout the region. Northern
areas along the OR border have a 15-25% chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms between 04/18Z and 05/00Z while the
remainder of the region stays dry with little to no cloud cover.
Winds are forecast to increase a bit with gusts up to around 25
kts at area terminals around 04/15-18Z before becoming light again
around 05/03-05Z. Dry conditions are expected this weekend along
with temperatures starting another warming trend. -078

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

For Independence Day, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected again due to breezy westerly winds (gusts up
to 25-30 mph) and low minimum relative humidity values (~7-15%)
in the forecast during the afternoon hours. However, the duration
of elevated to critical conditions appears to be brief, and only
over isolated portions of northern Washoe, the southwestern
portions of the NV Basin and Range, and the southeastern Sierra
Front.

Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the
weekend at this time as lighter winds are forecast (afternoon gusts
up to around 20 mph possible) throughout the area. -078/HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$