009
FXUS65 KREV 120949
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
249 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Following a chilly morning, the region expects to see dry
  conditions and below average temperatures today.

* A more potent storm arrives later tomorrow with better chances of
  rain and impactful mountain snow.

* Below average temperatures continue through this week with drier
  weather later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

For today, high pressure looks to reside in the region at the
surface allowing for clear skies and lighter winds. Following the
near freezing to below freezing early morning temperatures across
the region, daytime heating looks to warm afternoon temperatures
of the CWA to slightly above those experienced yesterday with
forecast highs in the 50s and 60s. Dry conditions are expected
through the day with clouds starting to move in from the north
later this evening and going through the night. This cloud cover
will allow for overnight temperatures to be a bit warmer tonight
compared to those from the previous night. Western NV valleys have
lows forecast in the middle 30s to lower 40s while Sierra
communities will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s range.

As for the beginning of the work week, a potent winter-like storm
still looks to be on its way that will bring some low elevation
rain and high elevation snow chances to the region Monday through
Wednesday. Forecast guidance is still projecting a PacNW low
moving down the Pacific coast on Monday before cutting over across
central CA on Tuesday and then moving through NV late Tuesday
going into Wednesday. While the timing looks to be in better
agreement, there is still some uncertainty between models on the
exact track of this low, which will determine precipitation
amounts. Anticipating that this important element of the upcoming
system will become more clear when the future hi-res model runs
pick up more on the system as it is just entering into the picture
towards the end of the recent runs.

Prior to the main wave of beginning of the week winter system, the
latest forecast guidance does show 40-60% chances for some low
elevation rain and high elevation snow showers north of I-80 as well
as around the Tahoe Basin beginning Monday morning. Not currently
anticipating much precipitation accumulation with this pre-event
shower chances with the potential for rain shadowing and QPF values
around a tenth of an inch or less.

But beyond this initial round of precipitation chances, the
Winter Storm Watch currently is in effect within the CWA for the
the Tahoe Basin down to through Mono County beginning late Monday
afternoon and lasting through Wednesday morning. Please see the
Winter Storm Watch product for more information. Snow levels start
off around 6.5-7 kft late Monday, but they do drop to around
5.5-6 kft on Tuesday morning which may bring wintry precipitation
types to more locations within the CWA. When looking at the latest
Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) for Tuesday, it highlights
moderate impacts in the Sierra with major impacts possible at the
Sierra crest. There are even a few areas highlighted at the
Sierra Pass level in Mono County that may see extreme impacts. For
more information on the WSSI and what the different impact levels
mean as well as the latest forecast snowfall totals for this
upcoming system, please visit weather.gov/rev/winter.

The consensus of the ensemble guidance continues to show that the
precipitation chances wind down during the day on Wednesday,
although some scenarios keep some showers lingering through
Wednesday night mainly in West-Central NV. Then for later this
week, a drier weather pattern returns with temperatures slowly
warming to near mid-October averages by next weekend. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today with the exception of patchy FZFG
around KTRK producing LIFR conditions this morning through around
12/15Z. Winds will be lighter today compared to the past few days
with some typical afternoon breezes.

For the beginning of the work week, an early winter-like storm will
bring increased chances for rain and mountain snow at times from
late Monday through Wednesday. Most of the heavier snow will likely
remain above the elevations of the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals, but
minor snow accumulations could occur especially in the
overnight/early morning hours. -078/MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning CAZ072-073.

&&

$$