878
FXUS65 KREV 030949
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
149 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds return today and Tuesday with light showers
  possible from northeast CA into far northwest NV.

* Strong winds are increasingly probable on Wednesday with
  significant impacts to travel and recreation.

* Rain and high elevation snow is expected Wednesday with
  lingering showers near the Oregon border through late week.
  Drier weather with some warming returns next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The high pressure ridge that gave us the warm and sunny weather
over the weekend will give way to a Pacific storm over the next
few days. The initial wave of energy will bring increased breezes
from late this morning through Tuesday, with Sierra ridge level
winds peaking tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds aren`t expected
to be unusually strong, but gusts of 25-35 mph will bring choppy
lake waters, more likely for Tahoe where a Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued. Light showers are also possible across NE California
into N Washoe County late tonight into Tuesday morning, but
minimal rainfall amounts are expected. High temperatures through
Tuesday will step back from the weekend`s warmth, but remain above
average (mainly mid 60s-lower 70s today, then down about 3-7
degrees north of US-50 on Tuesday).

The main storm pivots through the region on Wednesday, and will
bring periods of strong winds, wetting rain, and high elevation
snowfall. Our top concern with this storm will be strong winds
and associated impacts to travel and recreation late Tuesday night
through Wednesday. A belt of robust 50-70 kt 700 mb flow will
overspread the region, supporting a 50-80% chance of wind gusts
reaching or exceeding 45 mph regionwide. Damaging downslope wind
gusts (greater than 60 mph) are also attainable (20-50% odds)
especially along the US-395 corridor from far western NV into
Mono County, and around the Tahoe basin, so we will issue a High
Wind Watch for these areas. With the storm`s current timing, the
strongest winds would likely occur in the early-mid morning hours
on Wednesday from US-50 northward, then continue through the
afternoon south of US-50. Areas of blowing dust will also become a
concern for parts of northwest and west central NV, mainly
downwind of deserts and sinks.

The trajectory of Wednesday`s storm will keep the region in the
warmer air mass (although high temperatures will dip to the
50s-lower 60s across most areas west of US-95), translating to
higher snow levels throughout the storm`s duration. Therefore,
notable snowfall will likely be confined to elevations above
8000 feet where odds of 4" or more of total snowfall reaches up to
90%. While this storm isn`t expected to be a prolific snow
producer, there may be some travel disruptions through Carson,
Ebbetts, Tioga, and Sonora passes. Elsewhere, wetting rain is
likely west of US-395 with potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid
along the Sierra crest west of Tahoe northward to far western
Lassen County. Precip amounts drop off quickly going eastward with
possibly a short period of rain during the day Wednesday into the
Reno-Carson-Minden urban areas, with west central NV and eastern
Mono County staying mostly dry. Rain and snow tapers off Thursday
and Friday, although some lingering showers are possible near the
Oregon border and NE CA with a weaker secondary shortwave. High
pressure rebuilds across the western states, returning warmer and
mostly dry weather for next weekend. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds increase later today through Tuesday (SW surface gusts of
20-30 kts, with FL100 wind gusts peaking near 55 kt tonight into
early Tuesday), which will bring increased mountain wave
turbulence and LLWS impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at the main terminals through Tuesday.

More widespread wind impacts including significant mountain wave
activity/turbulence and longer periods of LLWS are likely for
Wednesday with potential for strong wind gusts of 40+ kt at the
main terminals and FL100 wind gusts of 80+ kt. Rain chances also
increase during the day Wednesday with MVFR CIGS/VIS most likely
for KTVL/KTRK, and terrain obscurations at all main terminals.
MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Tuesday
     NVZ002.

     High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night NVZ002-003.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Tuesday
     CAZ072.

     High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night CAZ072-073.

&&

$$