502
FXUS65 KREV 022132
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will form again
  this afternoon into evening across much of the region.

* Temperatures will cool below seasonal averages for the holiday
  weekend, with diminishing precipitation chances.

* A gradual warming trend begins Saturday and continues through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Similar to yesterday, with visible satellite we`re seeing cumulus
buildups across the Sierra and into western Nevada. Another round of
storms are expected Thursday as well, with Friday being our driest
and coolest day of the week.

The storms this afternoon will still have some upper level support
from a broad area of divergence over our CWA due to a low centered
off the coast of SoCal. Convective initiation will occur around 1 PM
this afternoon and go through 8 PM. Chances range between 15-20% in
western NV and 25-35% in northeastern CA. DCAPE this afternoon for
the Sierra Front and northeastern CA will be around 1400-1700 J/kg,
which indicates thunderstorms could produce gusts up to 55 mph. The
main impacts from these thunderstorms today include gusty outflow
winds, hail less than 0.50" in diameter, and occasional lightning.
The environment today looks very similar to yesterday, so we can
expect similar thunderstorms to break out.

Breezy zephyr winds are expected Thursday and Friday with gusts up
to 25-30 mph. This will lead to possible recreation concerns on
local lakes, and what nudged us to issue Lake Wind Advisories. See
the Fire Weather section below for more details on fire weather
impacts.

The Fourth of July into early next week we start to dry out and
temperatures start to rebound back into the mid 90`s by Sunday.
Friday`s high temps only get into the mid 80`s in western NV and
70`s in the Sierra which is 5-10 degrees below average for this time
of year.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

* There`s a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms from 20z-03z
  for all eastern Sierra, northeast CA, and western NV terminals.
  Primary impacts from thunderstorms include gusty/erratic winds,
  small hail <0.50", and occasional lightning.

* Typical zephyr breeze from the west today with gusts 15-20 kt at
  all area terminals in the afternoon. However, thunderstorms could
  produce gusts up to 50 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. -
  McKellar/Justin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Shower and storm chances (15-35%) expand across much of the region
  today. Once again, storms may produce abundant lightning and
  strong, erratic outflow winds upwards of 50+ mph. Locally heavy
  rainfall is possible inside storm cores, and small hail.

* For Thursday, there is a 3-6 hour period of critical fire
  weather conditions for the Sierra Front as well as inner-basin
  and ranges due to a combination of gusts of 25-30 mph with
  humidities in low to mid teens. This continues on Friday, but
  with much less coverage. -McKellar/Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight PDT Thursday
     night NVZ420-421-423-429-458.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight PDT Thursday
     night CAZ278.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$