941
FXUS65 KREV 112042
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chilly tonight into Sunday morning with lows near freezing in
  lower elevations and well below freezing for Sierra valleys.

* A more potent storm arrives early next week with better chances of
  rain and impactful mountain snow.

* Below average temperatures continue through next week with drier
  weather later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This weekend we`ll be in between storm systems as a low pressure
trough exits eastward across the Great Basin tonight. Other than a
few light showers through early evening in northeast CA-far
northwest NV, dry conditions prevail through Sunday night. With
clearing skies and decreasing winds, lows late tonight into early
Sunday morning will dip to near freezing for western NV valleys,
with sub-freezing temperatures for typically colder rural sites
across northeast CA and western NV. For Sierra communities, lows
will plunge into the upper teens-lower 20s. While we`re near the
typical end of the growing season, those with sensitive vegetation
outdoors should take action to prevent it from freezing tonight.
Also consider checking the condition of your heating systems before
this cold air arrives tonight. Highs on Sunday recover to the upper
50s-mid 60s, about 5-10 degrees below average, with lighter winds
compared to today.

The next storm will be the primary weather headline for the upcoming
week as it digs southward along the west coast early next week. By
Monday, light showers on the leading edge of this storm will develop
mainly near the Sierra and spread into northeast CA-western NV,
accompanied by increasing S-SW winds especially in higher elevations.

The bulk of this storm`s potential impacts are projected for Monday
night-Tuesday as the main low`s center nears the SF Bay area and
then tracks inland across central CA. Increasing Pacific moisture
will spread across the Sierra and into western NV. The main wild
card is the eventual track of the main low--if it digs farther
offshore the heavier precip would remain west of the Sierra crest
but if it makes a closer approach, a swath of heavier mountain snow
would push across the Sierra mainly above 6500-7000 feet, with rain
spreading across lower elevations.

Despite this range of scenarios, the overall confidence has edged
upward enough to include the eastern Sierra and Tahoe region in a
Winter Storm Watch running from Monday evening through Wednesday
morning. The highest snow potential is currently favoring Mono
County along the crest, where the probability of at least 1 foot of
snow is 75-85%, and even 2 or more feet of snow is showing a
respectable 30-60%. While these snow thresholds have a lower
probability for the passes around Tahoe, there is sufficient risk of
winter travel impacts for the first time this season especially
during the overnight and morning periods (Mon night-Tues AM and Tues
night- Wed AM) when snow is more likely to accumulate on roads. Now
is the time to have vehicles ready for snow and slick roads if
travel over the Sierra is necessary, or consider alternate travel
plans (complete the trip by Monday afternoon or wait until later in
the week).

The consensus of the ensemble guidance winds down the precip during
the day Wednesday, although some scenarios keep some showers
lingering through Wednesday night mainly in west central NV. Then
for late next week, a drier weather pattern returns with
temperatures slowly warming to near mid-October averages by next
weekend. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through this weekend, except for patchy FZFG
around KTRK producing LIFR conditions early Sunday morning mainly
between 10-15Z. Winds will be on the breezy side through 02-03Z this
evening with gusts near 25 kt at the main terminals, except 30-35 kt
at KMMH, followed by lighter winds overnight through Sunday.

For early next week, an early winter-like storm will bring increased
chances for rain and mountain snow at times from late Monday through
Wednesday. Most of the heavier snow will likely remain above the
elevations of the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals, but minor snow
accumulations could occur especially in the overnight/early morning
hours. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning CAZ072-073.

&&

$$