669
FXUS65 KREV 222103
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
103 PM PST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Mild days and cool nights continue through Friday, with dry
  conditions, light winds, and valley inversions each morning.

* A cold weather system will bring below average temperatures,
  brisk winds and snow shower chances Friday night through this
  weekend.

* Gusty east to northeast ridge winds may continue into early next
  week, otherwise dry and cool conditions are expected followed by
  slow warming by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* High pressure ridge remains in control near the CA coast through
  late Thursday, then this ridge will retreat to the south on
  Friday. This will continue the dry pattern with mainly light
  winds and valley inversions for the next two mornings, although
  winds will start to increase in higher elevations and areas near
  the OR border by Friday afternoon. Cool mornings with valley
  inversions will give way to mild afternoons with highs mainly
  from the upper 40s-mid 50s through Friday.

* From Friday night through this weekend, a trough dropping in
  from the northeast is projected to pinch off as a closed low
  with ensemble scenarios ranging this low`s location from the
  central CA coast to central NV. If the low digs into CA west of
  the Sierra, it would increase the chance for snow across the
  eastern Sierra and western NV (shown on about 60% of the latest
  ensemble cluster guidance). However, the snow potential would be
  more limited if the low remains in central NV (about 40% of the
  cluster guidance). Therefore we are still in a lower confidence
  situation, with only a slight lean toward the snow scenario.
  Snow amounts are still projected to be on the light side
  overall, although for western NV valleys it wouldn`t take much
  snow to produce areas of hazardous slick/icy road conditions
  from Saturday morning through early Sunday. In general terms if
  the favorable snow scenario occurs, the eastern Sierra from
  Tahoe southward to Mono County, and western NV south of US-50
  have the best chance for 1-4" of snow, with a few locations
  potentially receiving around 6", if/where a deformation zone
  sets up and produces a more persistent period of enhanced
  snowfall. North of US-50, most areas are projected to receive 2"
  or less, although some enhancement off Pyramid Lake could
  produce narrow bands of heavier snow from parts of Reno-Sparks
  eastward to Fernley.

* As the low pressure and associated cold front drop southward
  Friday night, winds will shift to the north and northeast and
  become brisk on Saturday with gusts 20-35 mph. The higher end of
  this gust range is most likely in areas from I-80 northward.
  Stronger northeast to east Sierra ridge gusts will develop
  Saturday night and could continue through Monday, with gusts 50+
  mph at times. High elevation backcountry wind chills will become
  harsh especially early Sunday and Monday mornings, dipping to
  between -10 and -20 F. Chilly temperatures will prevail this
  weekend with highs only in the 30s for lower elevations and mid-
  upper 20s for Sierra communities, and lows mainly in the single
  digits and teens. For valley areas receiving fresh snow cover,
  lows could dip to near zero.

* Then from next Monday-Wednesday as the medium range guidance
  favors a ridge rebuilding near the west coast, dry conditions
  with lighter winds and valley inversions return. A gradual
  warmup is projected with highs rebounding to the 40s-near 50 by
  the middle of next week. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through Friday with generally light winds.
Valley inversions will produce areas of haze with minor reductions
in slantwise visibility each day mainly from 15-21Z around KRNO.

The next period of weather impacts to aviation will arrive
Saturday morning with increasing NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Snow
showers may reduce CIGS/VIS to MVFR or brief IFR at the main
terminals during the day Saturday, and possibly lingering into
Saturday night-Sunday AM, especially for terminals south of
US-50. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$