Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
292 FXUS65 KREV 070833 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1233 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * One more cold morning today, before a gradual warming trend brings temperatures back to normal Friday into the weekend. * Inversions strengthen under light winds, resulting in hazy skies today into Saturday. * Active weather returns this weekend as two storms bring varying impacts such as gusty winds, valley rain, and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... After some of the coldest temperatures of the season this morning, high pressure returning over the western US brings a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Highs nudge upwards today, but remain slightly below normal, topping out in the 50s for most locations. Near-average temperatures return Friday, continuing through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure also brings continued dry conditions in addition to light winds, promoting strengthening valley inversions that will result in hazy skies mainly for our urban areas today through Saturday. Overall, a quiescent, seasonable end to our week! A more active pattern is expected to return on Saturday, though the first of two storms in the queue continues to trend much drier as it barely skirts to our north. Shower potential has dropped to less than 10% for areas near the Oregon border. Blended guidance indicates even the high end scenario (10% chance of occurring) would bring only a few hundredths of an inch of precip to the Surprise Valley. Even in terms of wind, this system doesn`t look overly impressive for our region. We can still expect a shift in winds out of the SW on Saturday, with only a slight uptick in the afternoon. Similar to previous forecast thinking, this storm still appears stronger and colder than the first. We`re still on track to see increased SW wind gusts with this system beginning late Sunday into Monday. Winds peak early Monday afternoon as a cold front traverses through the region, with likely chances (>80%) for most locations across the Sierra and western Nevada to see gusts over 30 mph. There is even a 10-30% chance for damaging wind gusts greater than 55 mph, mainly for the Sierra Front. Definitely something to keep an eye on this week, especially with the ECMWF EFI continuing to highlight much of NE CA and western NV for strong winds on Monday. The main change in latest guidance is that this system has trended much faster, with precipitation arriving early Monday and wrapping up by the end of the day. Still looking like a low-to-moderate end storm for the Sierra, with a 30-40% chance for 4+ inches of snow above 7500 feet and a 10-15% chance for lake level. Whitlam && .AVIATION... Easterly FL100 winds remain slightly elevated this morning around 20- 30 kts, but are expected to taper off significantly past 18z today. Can`t rule out some light-moderate turbulence along and west of the Sierra through late morning. Otherwise, generally light north to east winds expected for all regional terminals through Friday. With lighter winds this morning through Friday, air stagnation will lead to strengthening valley inversions and subsequent hazy skies, resulting in deteriorating slantwise visibility. Otherwise, clear skies allow VFR conditions to prevail through Friday for all regional terminals. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$