343
FXUS65 KREV 092057
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
155 PM PDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Mild spring-like conditions will persist through Tuesday.

* A weak system passing to the south will bring periods of cloudy
  skies Tuesday, but overall it remains dry with breezes
  developing in the afternoon.

* A cold winter storm will bring widespread snow to the Sierra and
  strong gusty winds and snow showers to lower elevations
  Wednesday through Thursday. Additional storms are likely for
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* CHANGES/IMPACTS: The storm for midweek is on track with no
  notable adjustments to timing, snow amounts and wind impacts.
  Take the next couple of days to finish up travel across the
  Sierra as conditions will rapidly deteriorate Wednesday with
  snow and blowing snow impacting all passes from Yuba/Fredonyer
  to all Tahoe area passes and Highway 395 through the eastern
  Sierra to Mammoth Lakes. Strong gusty winds will be the biggest
  problem for air traffic, high-profiled vehicles and recreation
  down in the lower valleys Wednesday.

* A trough with strong jet/frontal forcing and plenty of cold air
  will bring increasing snowfall to the Sierra as early as the
  morning commute Wednesday in the Tahoe Basin and NE CA with
  snowfall spreading down into Mammoth Lakes by the afternoon.
  Snowfall rates will be lowest during most of the day (generally
  up to 1"/hr) with SLRs closer to 8-12:1. Biggest issue during
  the day will be the strong winds combining with the snow to
  result in whiteout conditions across passes, especially Tahoe
  area ones. The stronger forcing/lift as well as colder more
  unstable air arrive into Lassen County early Wednesday afternoon
  and then work south into Tahoe mid-late afternoon and finally
  into Mono County Wednesday evening. With snowfall rates of
  2-3"/hr and locally up to 4"/hr in convective bands along with
  SLRs increasing to 12-15:1, snowfall amounts will really stack
  up during this time. Snow showers, heavy at times will persist
  overnight into Thursday with more variable snowfall, but still
  dangerous driving conditions throughout the Sierra, including
  down into Sierra communities where a foot or more of snow is
  looking likely. Snowfall totals will approach 3 feet along the
  east side of the Sierra crest.

* For lower elevations of NE CA and W NV, the main issue will be
  strong winds Wednesday as southerly flow aloft limits spillover
  initially. Tight gradients and a mild airmass ahead of the front
  will promote deep mixing and a strong wind potential. Overall,
  blended guidance shows widespread wind gusts 40-55 mph from late
  morning through early evening, with windprone areas reaching 60+
  mph, including areas along Hwy 395/I-580 and Hwy 95 near Walker
  Lake. Shadowing will be common during the day Wednesday before
  spillover becomes more likely along the front Wednesday evening.
  While snow levels are expected to quickly fall to the valley
  floors, antecedent mild conditions and quick eastward frontal
  progression may limit accumulations. Right now the best
  estimates include 2-4" above 5000 feet with less than 2" below
  that level. Snow may impact the Thursday AM commute but a high
  sun angle should help clear roads during the late morning and
  afternoon although snow showers persist.

* Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average on the back
  side of this system both Thursday-Friday with brisk W-NW winds
  reminding us that winter is not over. Additional storms are
  lined up to impact the Sierra and W NV next weekend and into
  early next week. Prepare for additional travel headaches as we
  get more moderate to heavy mountain snow and periods of strong
  gusty winds.

This is my last discussion. After starting at the NWS office in
Galveston TX in 1990 and working my way through Austin and Ft
Worth TX, Memphis TN and Elko, I landed here in Reno for nearly a
quarter century. From tornadoes to floods to fires and big winter
storms, providing the communities around me with the necessary
weather information to make important and sometimes life-saving
decisions has been a most rewarding part of my life. Thank you for
letting me serve you, it has truly been a privilege and an honor.
Take care and goodbye, Wendell (Hohmann)

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions through Tuesday. Some haze will persist in lower
  valleys.

* FL100 winds 25-35 kts will bring light turbulence through this
  evening with locally breezy surface winds (gusts 15-20 kts)
  along the eastern Sierra through 02Z. Winds then back off
  Monday which should be a great day for flying.

* Winds begin to increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of our next
  winter storm which will bring strong gusty winds of 30-40 kts
  for all sites Wednesday. Cannot rule out a 2-4 hour period of
  gusts to 55 kts at KRNO-KMEV-KCXP-KMMH (60-70% chance). Heavy
  accumulating snow to one foot or more at Sierra terminals Wed-
  Thu. Some light accumulation is possible Wed night-Thu AM at
  lower elevation airports (20-25% chance of exceeding 1" at
  KMEV/KCXP, less than 5% chance for KRNO).

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening
     CAZ071>073.
&&

$$