514
FXUS65 KREV 141021
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
321 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An early season storm will bring impactful Sierra snow today
  through early Wednesday with periods of rain for lower
  elevations.

* Below average temperatures continue through this week with drier
  weather later in the week.

* Another chance for valley rain and mountain snow may arrive by
  late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Near-Term: Today-Wed AM

* Current radar imagery is showing a round of moderate
  precipitation moving into Mono and Alpine counties. Local camera
  networks and snow level profilers are showing current snow
  levels around 6,500-7,000`. Snow levels will remain steady
  around 6,500` this morning. For the rest of today into
  Wednesday, the CAMs and HREF output are in better agreement
  showing the upper level low moving into the central CA coast by
  the early afternoon. The low then tracks into Mineral and
  Esmeralda counties by the late evening, and into northeast NV by
  Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will
  continue to be 15-20 degrees below normal with overnight lows
  below freezing through at least Thursday morning.

* For the Sierra, most of the precipitation this morning will be
  south of US-50. By the late morning, precipitation becomes
  likely in the Tahoe Basin/southern Lassen County where it
  continues through early Wednesday morning around 3-6 AM.
  Precipitation becomes more showery in nature by the afternoon
  for Mono County, ending around 8-11 PM. For today`s snowfall
  amounts, the HREF/NBM have a likely (>70%) chance for at least
  12 inches of snow above 7,000` throughout the eastern Sierra.
  For locations closer to 6,000`(Truckee, Verdi, etc.) the NBM
  shows a low (<10%) chance for at least 6", reflecting the still
  high uncertainty in snow levels.

* For western NV, precipitation moves into Mineral, Douglas, Lyon
  counties by 7-9 AM, and the greater Reno Metro area/I-80 by
  around 11 AM to 1 PM. Precipitation continues through 3-5 AM
  Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty to exactly how far
  north band this precipitation band sets up. So far, ensembles
  point to roughly I-80, Pyramid Lake. As for snow in western NV,
  blended guidance and the HREF show a high probability of
  precipitation becoming all snow above ~6,000` by 7-9 PM with a
  50% chance for at least 4" of snow in the Virginia Range and a
  likely (>80%) chance for 4" of snow in the higher elevations in
  Mineral, Douglas, Lyon, and Washoe counties. For that reason, a
  Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of western
  NV above 6,000` for tonight. -McKellar


Longer-Term: Wednesday PM-Tuesday

After Wednesday afternoon, drier conditions will return as the
low pressure moves out of the area. Daytime highs will come back
up to near mid-October normals by this weekend. Long-range
guidance shows another low pressure system dropping down from
British Columbia as early as Sunday, bringing chances for valley
rain, mountain snow, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds.

-Giralte


&&

.AVIATION...

* -SHRA for Sierra Front terminals likely today from around 18-20z
  through 09-12z Wed. This will bring MVFR/IFR in showers and low
  ceilings.

* For KTRK/KTVL: -SHRA likely in the morning. This will then
  become -SHRASN by around 22z and all -SN after 00z. This will
  produce MVFR/IFR in ceilings and visibilities as well as
  mountain obscurations. Precipitation continues through 10-14z
  Wed. There is a 20% chance for at least 1" of accumulations.
  KMMH will see -SN to at times +SN through 06-10z. Localized
  LLWS will be possible for KMMH today until 18z. -McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT
     Wednesday NVZ001-003.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ073.

&&

$$