318
FXUS65 KREV 111027
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
327 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler temperatures are forecast today with low chances for light
  rain/mountain snow showers closer to the Oregon border this
  afternoon.

* Near freezing to below freezing temperatures expected across
  the region Sunday morning.

* Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold
  temperatures, but with better chances of rain and impactful
  mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

For today, models show an upper low moving eastward through the
Northwestern CONUS passing by the CWA to the north. With this
pattern aloft, cooler temperatures are on tap for the region
following an overnight/early morning cold front passage. Daytime
highs for western NV range between the upper 50s and the middle 60s
while Northeastern CA and the Sierra communities see highs in the
40s and 50s today. Following some lingering showers this morning, a
good portion of the CWA looks to stay mostly on the dry side.
Lassen, Plumas, and Northern Washoe Counties have a ~15-30% chance
for light showers during the afternoon. With forecast snow levels
between 6-6.5 kft today, higher elevations should see snow with
these precipitation chances. However, the latest NBM probabilities
show generally less than 10% chance for 24-hr snowfall amounts of 1
inch or greater by 11 PM tonight. Forecast area winds for the area
expect to come down a bit compared to those experienced yesterday
though still be a bit breezy with afternoon gusts up to around 20-30
mph while ridges see up to around 45-50 mph possible.

For tonight into Sunday morning, near freezing to below freezing
temperatures are to be expected across the region as clear skies
overnight will allow for temperatures to drop. Low temperatures for
tonight are forecast to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s range in
the western NV portions of the CWA while CA portions generally look
to be in the upper teens to upper 20s range. You may want to
consider checking the condition of your heating systems sometime
today if you have not already before this cold arrives.

Going into the work week, models are continuing to show a PacNW
upper low traveling down the Pacific coast of the CONUS on Monday
and Tuesday which appears to bring back good chances for rain and
mountain snow for the region through at least midweek. Ensemble
guidance still shows some good uncertainty with the timing and track
of this low which will determine how impactful this system will be
on the area. When looking at the latest 48-hr NBM probabilities for
2 ft of snow or greater, portions of the Sierra crest south of Lake
Tahoe look to have around a 50-60% chance of hitting this criteria
by Wednesday morning. Models are also showing an uptick in ridge
winds (possibly gusting up to around 60 mph) on Monday with this
system. There still are a lot of unknowns with this system at this
time, but one thing to plan on will be travel impacts across the
Sierra Passes in Alpine and Mono Counties early next week. Please
continue to watch for forecast updates (and potential winter
products) for this upcoming system as they become available
especially if you have plans to travel across the Sierra. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VCSH continues this morning for KSVE-KTRK-KTVL following a cold
front passage with the Sierra terminals seeing LLWS going into
the afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast through today with
westerly winds gusting up to around 20-25 kts between
11/17Z-12/02Z. While a good portion of the region stays dry:
Lassen, Plumas, and Northern Washoe Counties have a ~15-25% chance
for light showers between 11/21Z-24Z. Following a brief break on
Sunday, models show an impactful weather system bringing back better
chances for rain and mountain snow to start the work week. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$