Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
705 FXUS65 KREV 060935 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 235 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Other than low chances for showers and thunder today and Monday, warm and mainly dry conditions persist through midweek. * A cooling trend will bring near average October temperatures later in the week as an approaching trough brings increased winds with a low confidence rain potential. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure continues to influence our region from the Sierra Crest east into the Great Basin region. Through the upcoming week, little is going to change outside of the mostly continued dry conditions, lighter westerly winds, and unseasonably warm daytime temperatures. * Although the region will remain mostly dry, weak short wave troughs lifting into the ridge will force pockets of energy and modest mid-level moisture into northeast California and the Sierra today and Monday. Taking advantage of higher terrain favored areas, shower and thunder chances increase to 10-20% during the afternoon hours today. Dont be surprised if a couple claps of thunder are heard in the eastern Sierra and portions of Mono County. HREF guidance shows the best chances (10-20%) for isolated storms staying mostly across northeast CA/northern Washoe County Monday afternoon. * Outside the afternoon hours, winds will remain light and mostly diurnally driven less than 10 mph. During the afternoon look for those typical afternoon breezes to kick up with gusts 15-25 mph for most areas across western NV. Later in the week, a low pressure system lifting into the Pacific Northwest will drag an attendant cold front across northern CA into western NV as ensemble simulations project wind gusts to 25-35 mph on Friday, with higher Sierra ridges seeing gusts peaking close to 60 mph. * Daytime highs in lower valleys will be at least 5-10 degrees above seasonal average for this time in October. Look for highs to stay in the mid to upper 80s for western NV valleys with some Sierra locations seeing highs topping in the low 80s. A true Indian Summer so to speak! Higher locations across Mono County will see the coolest highs that are projected to stay in the lower 70s through mid-week. Although global ensemble simulations show increased shower chances moving into northeast CA, and the far northwest corner of Washoe County by late week, uncertainty remains high for any definitive rainfall and temperature projections at this time. Still, blended guidance shows a wide range of potential temperature outcomes with simulations trending towards more seasonal October temperatures by Friday accompanied with low precipitation chances. Therefore, these nicer days are a good time to finish up any last minute preparations for winter. Dont worry, Im not asserting that the upcoming winter season will be particularly harsh. Its always good to be prepared just in case. -Amanda && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through at least the first few days of the week with continued dry conditions and lighter westerly winds. Winds will stay light and mostly terrain driven except becoming breezy in the afternoon at the main terminals with gusts 20 kt or less. There will be some afternoon cumulus clouds today into Monday with a low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms for the eastern Sierra today and northeast CA on Monday. -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$