764
FXUS65 KREV 072115
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
115 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Lingering snow showers and breezy winds taper off by this
  evening, otherwise dry and cool weather prevails through early
  next week.

* A weak weather system may bring light snow showers Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

* A more active storm pattern likely returns later next week from
  Wednesday night onward with gusty winds, possible heavy snow in
  the Sierra and a rain-snow mix for lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few bands of light snow showers lingering over the Sierra,
northeast CA and isolated portions of western NV will finally wind
down by early this evening, with minimal spotty accumulations
possible near main passes. Continue to travel with caution in the
Sierra, as even a light coating of snow on the roads can increase
delays in combination with busy weekend traffic.

This weekend through Monday will feature dry, albeit chilly,
weather as a series of weak shortwaves moves across the Pacific
NW. Highs will remain below average with mainly lower-mid 40s for
lower elevations and 30s for Sierra communities. However, areas
of far northeast CA-northwest NV north of Susanville-Gerlach will
struggle to get above freezing for the next 3 days, as these
waves brush through with shallow cold front passages. Lows through
Monday morning will remain wintry with mainly teens for most lower
elevations, and single digits to near zero for Sierra communities
and areas north of Susanville-Gerlach.

By Tuesday-Tuesday night, another shortwave dropping in from the
north will bring reinforcing cold air and brisk NW-N winds, again
most notable for northeast CA-northwest NV. While the moisture
remains limited, this may be more of a slider-type system and
produce isolated-scattered snow showers for parts of the Sierra
and western NV.

Then by later next week from Wednesday night through Friday, a
more robust Pacific system with a feed of atmospheric river
moisture is showing up on a solid majority of the ensemble
guidance scenarios. Winds associated with this storm would
increase on ridges Wednesday night and spread into lower
elevations on Thursday. If this outcome holds together,
significant snowfall (2 or more feet) would impact the Sierra
and higher elevations of northeast CA, with areas down to lake
Tahoe elevation having a good chance (50-60% probability) of
seeing their largest snow event so far this season. With plenty
of cold air in place as this storm arrives, lower elevations could
also be set up for a mainly snow event--especially in foothill
areas. It`s rather early to project snow amounts, but periods of
snow or a rain-snow mix are not out of the question even for
valleys, bringing potentially slick commutes and cold hearts into
Valentine`s Day. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering -SHSN may bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions to
KTRK-KTVL until around 00Z. Breezy mainly W wind gusts of 20-25
kt for the western NV terminals and around 30 kt for KMMH,
combined with lingering FL100/ridge top gusts to 40 kt will keep
areas of mountain wave turbulence going until around 02Z this
evening.

Otherwise from this weekend into Monday, VFR conditions with
mainly light winds will prevail. Winds may increase with Tuesday`s
potential slider system, with potentially more widespread wind
and snow impacts for all terminals from Wednesday night into
Friday. MJD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Pit River:

* Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Pit River and
  tributaries in northwest Lassen County through 12 Noon Monday.
  The Pit River near Canby gage is currently fluctuating between
  minor and moderate flood stage. Downstream about 30 miles near
  Bieber, flood levels continue to slowly recede, but prolonged
  flooding impacts to many rural roads and low lying structures
  will continue. Cold temperatures and ice in slow moving and
  ponded areas may exacerbate impacts and damage structures and/or
  block drainage areas.

Elsewhere, no flooding impacts are expected through early next
week.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$