424
FXUS62 KRAH 241042
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the
Carolinas today, while a weak area of low pressure will develop
and track off the coast. A cold front will approach from the west
and move east through the area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

Remaining mainly dry and a bit warmer today.

Central NC will be in between rain producing systems today. One will
be along the coast where a weak low pressure will track NE along the
coast then offshore later today. The other chance of showers will be
in the mountains and foothills this afternoon as the pre-frontal
trough and cold front approach. There is a small chance of showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm generally between 4-8 PM late
this afternoon and evening in the NW and N Piedmont. There
is a slim chance that some of the showers may make it into
the central Piedmont and Triangle Area toward 8-9 PM. However,
the latest CAMS suggest that this activity will dissipate over
central NC by late evening. We will keep an eye on this potential.

Highs today should be in the mid 80s as there will be increasing
sunshine from the western Piedmont into the rest of the region by
late morning and afternoon. Expect partly cloudy skies tonight as
the front passes through the region. Lows will still be in the 60s
to near 70 SE with delayed cool air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Drier air and increasing sunshine Monday, cooler Monday night.

Drier air will advect into the region with a NW-N breeze on Monday
behind the cold front. Skies are expected to become mostly sunny.
Highs will still be warm, mostly in the mid to upper 80s as the cool
advection will initially be offset by downslope type warming of the
increasingly drying air mass. Finally, the cooler conditions will be
noticed Monday night as the skies will be mainly clear, Dry dew
points in the 50s and light winds will allow for lows to dip into
the mid 50s north to lower 60s SE. These readings will be about 10
degrees below normal for late August.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

* Unseasonably cool and predominantly dry conditions.

* Virga and some very light rain possible Wed morning and again
  Thurs night into Fri.

Model guidance remains in very good agreement of the overall
longwave pattern through the forecast period. Persistent troughing
will largely remain in place over the eastern CONUS as several
shortwave troughs pivot across the Great Lake and eastern CONUS. For
the most part, the forecast remains dry of measurable precipitation
as anomalously dry thermodynamic profile (PWAT values at-or-below
the 10th percentile) will be in place through at least Thurs night.
The only minor exception being a chance for mid/upper-level
generated precipitation from moderate synoptic forcing shifting
across the area early Wed morning and again Thurs night into Fri.
Overall the QPF amounts, if any, are expected to be very light (a
trace to less than 0.1") both days. The most likely way this affects
the forecast will be the increased cloud cover and resultant lower
high temperatures within the already cooler/drier Canadian airmass
already in place over the area at this time.

Otherwise, expect a long-duration period of below normal
temperatures and noticeably drier airmass through the work week into
the weekend. The coolest morning may be Thurs morning, dependent on
cloud cover, as the center of the surface high will be closest and
the pressure gradient is weakest within the newly deposited airmass.
Statistical guidance suggest some of the cool spots of the NC
Piedmont may reach into the mid/upper 40s. Elsewhere, lows are
expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 most mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM Sunday...

A mid and upper-level disturbance, and preceding multi-layered VFR
ceilings, virga, and patchy light rain/sprinkles at the surface,
will move northeast across NC early this morning. Its approach
will contribute to the development of weak coastal low pressure that
will track off the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture transport and
lift around the coastal low will result in the development of an
area of IFR-MVFR ceilings roughly along and east of I-95, including
into FAY and RWI early today. A few showers and/or patchy light rain
will also be possible at those sites. Scattered showers/storms will
develop over the NC Mountains and Foothills and spread east across
the  NW Piedmont this afternoon, where a PROB30 for a shower or
storm has been included.

Outlook: A lingering shower/storm may drift into the vicinity of RDU
this evening, before dissipating through around midnight. Generally
VFR otherwise. A strong mid-level wave will bring a chance of a
shower Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett/CBL
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS