113
FXUS62 KRAH 161816
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build overhead tonight. This high will push
slowly offshore Thursday into Friday, bringing a warming trend
through the weekend into early next week. A frontal system will
approach from the west Monday, then linger over the region through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

A Frost Advisory is in effect for the northern/central Piedmont for
tonight.

It will remain breezy through 600 PM or so, then winds will diminish
quickly by sunset. Clear skies and light winds overnight can be
expected as the high pressure to the west slowly builds overhead.
Lows of 35-40 are expected over the Piedmont, with upper 30s and
lower 40s elsewhere. There is chance of scattered, light frost in
the rural areas of the northern and central Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

After a chilly start early Thursday morning for portions of the
Piedmont, temperatures will moderate a few degrees warmer than
today. As the surface high moves across NC Thursday mostly clear
skies will start off the day before mid an high clouds move into the
region late afternoon/evening. Winds will be light and variable for
most of the day and as the high shifts more east southerly wind will
be dominant. High temps Thursday will be in mid/upper 60s north to
low 70s south. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...

Warm temperatures are expected through this period, with dry weather
continuing through at least Easter Sunday. Uncertain but likely non-
zero precip chances will follow for early next work week.

Fri-Sun: As the low level anticyclone settles and strengthens just
offshore, deep mid level ridging will build close on its heels over
the Southeast, with a slow eastward drift to the coast through the
weekend. Despite the stout low level S and SW flow around the
anticyclone into the region Fri through Sun, the deep above-normal
heights aloft just off the Carolinas and Southeast will ensure
warm/dry mid levels over the CWA, with the stream of above-normal
PWs holding to our W and NW as a mid level low/trough dives into the
Four Corners then tracks NE through the Plains. A polar low moving
over the Canadian Maritimes and its trailing trough will likely
nudge a backdoor front southward toward NE NC Sun evening/night,
however its impact appears limited to a wind shift and perhaps a few
clouds in our extreme NE. Low level thicknesses will be near normal
Fri morning but warm up quickly during the day, reaching values ~25-
30 m above normal Sat and ~30-35 m above normal Sun, so expect warm
highs in the upper 70s/low 80s Fri and well into the 80s everywhere
Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Mon-Tue: Model solutions become increasingly varied with the
longwave pattern, specifically with the mid level low to our NW and
the degree to which it breaks down the Southeast ridge. The low is
likely to remain potent as it tracks ENE through the Great Lakes
region Sun night and into far SE Canada Mon/Tue, suppressing the
ridge further SE, to E of the Bahamas, and bringing flat or gently
cyclonic flow into NC as a surface frontal zone shifts into the
area. But the details remain murky with this low tracking so far to
our N, and model differences remain fairly significant in terms of
our sensible weather. Figuring the models may be tamping down this
ridge too quickly, as is often the case, will favor a more durable
ridge off FL, which will keep Mon/Tue mild with isolated/scattered
precip chances both days. Expect highs in the low-mid 80s Mon and
upper 70s-low 80s Tue with partly to mostly cloudy skies. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period.
Winds at 10-25kt this afternoon will diminish quickly after sunset.
Light winds are expected Thursday.

Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions through the end of the work
week, with breezy conditions possible again Fri and Sat. The next
best chance for sub-VFR conditions/rain will be Sunday night or
Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>009-021>025-
038>040-074>076.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett