911
FXUS62 KRAH 050600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushing southward through the region will settle just
to our south overnight, as Arctic high pressure noses in from the
north. Low pressure will track northeastward along the front across
the Southeast states and Carolinas tonight through Friday, before
moving offshore Friday night. Weak high pressure will settle over
the region through the weekend. A mostly dry Arctic cold front will
move through on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 308 PM Thursday...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through
  midnight Saturday for portions of the northern Piedmont and
  northern Coastal Plain of central NC. Up to an inch of snow
  accumulation and a glaze of ice accumulation are expected.

* Snow, and sleet (likely mixed with rain) are possible south of the
  advisory area between midnight and 10 AM Friday, however no
  accumulation is expected.

Our long-wave trough and associated moisture plume stemming from
western Texas east across the southeast is clearly evident on water
vapor imagery this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds continue to
stream over central NC this afternoon, while weak mid-level
vorticity continues to generate light to moderate rain over the Gulf
States and portions of GA and southern SC.

Further west, a more pronounced vort signature was evident rounding
the base of the upper trough over north Texas/central OK.  This
feature will swing east through the TN valley later tonight
coinciding with a strengthening upper jet and associated divergence
over the mid-Altantic/southeast.

At the sfc, latest obs centered the Arctic high over eastern Iowa.
This high is still expected to translate east over the Mid-Atlantic,
and be placed favorably for initial light wintry precipitation
(mostly in the climatologically favored north of I-85 area) before
weakening and progressing offshore Friday.

Lift associated with increasing WAA in the mid-levels will generate
a precipitation shield across the TN Valley that will quickly expand
northeast along the southern Appalachians/Foothills/Piedmont through
early Friday morning. Latest high-res guidance has trended a bit
further north wrt to areas with the best chance for light snow
accumulations.  Thickness and point soundings along the NC/VA border
are still supportive of good saturation in the dendritic growth zone
and favorable sub-freezing thermal profiles for a few hours just
before and after sunrise.  However, further south (including the
Triad area) latest RAP/NAM/HRRR soundings have trended away from
saturation in the dendritic growth zone and towards wavering thermal
profiles with perhaps some above freezing temperatures at various
layers/temporal periods.  As such, could easily see sleet pellets
and/or non-impactful spotty freezing rain during the optimal wintry
precipitation period (effectively cutting into snowfall accumulation
potential). The thermal profiles become even less supportive of
wintry precipitation with southward extent. As such, decided to not
expand the Winter Advisory south at this time. The best chances for
a 1 inch or greater snowfall appears to be in the northern areas of
Person/Granville/Vance/Warren (latest HREF/REFS concur)

Those in the Triangle may see some wintry hydrometers mix in with
cold rain during the morning commute, but the ground temps more
likely than not will remain above freezing. As such, do not expect
any wintry travel concerns in the Triangle.

The models continue to speed up the cessation of both the wintry
precip (which should arch northward into VA by ~13 to 14Z) and in
general cold rain across northern to central areas through ~16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Friday...

* Rain chances in the far SE, mainly Sat afternoon, and continued
  chilly.

The frontal zone will hold SE of the area Sat, with weak high
pressure sitting over the Carolinas. As we`ll stay within a fast WSW
mid level flow, the potential remains that subtle and hard-to-time
perturbations will ride within this flow over SC and SE NC Sat/Sat
night. There remains some model agreement on the right entrance
region of the upper jet scraping across NC Sat afternoon, yielding
associated enhanced upper divergence and resulting in a brief
northwestward bump in the NW edge of the precip shield Sat
afternoon. But the overall forcing for ascent appears to be modest
and fleeting and focused on the far SE CWA, with the bulk of the
moisture restricted to the mid and upper levels, as the opportunity
for moisture return in the low levels is lacking. As such, expect
the chance for any rain to be largely confined to areas well SE of
the Triangle, with light amounts overall, and pops tapering down and
out toward midnight. Clouds should be largely overcast, especially
over the S and E sections, and this low insolation will result in
chilly highs in the mid 40s to around 50, followed by lows in the
mid 20s to mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM Friday...

* Chilly, below-normal temperatures to persist next week.

* Precip chances decreasing late Sunday into Monday.

A central to eastern U.S. mean upper trough(with 500 MB heights ~2
S.D. below normal) and broad cyclonic flow will dominate this period-
-supporting persistent chilly, below-normal temperatures over
central NC.

The reinforcing cold air behind a cold frontal passage Monday will
make Monday and Tuesday the coldest day of the stretch.
Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, while overnight
lows Monday night could dip down into the lower to mid 20s, with
some of the colder, more sheltered locales perhaps reaching upper
teens. Wednesday may see only gradual moderation, but temperatures
should still remain below normal through mid week.

Sunday should begin mostly dry across the area, with steadier rain
and better precipitation chances suppressed to the south along a
stalled frontal zone lingering across the SE US. However, weak
cyclogenesis along the stalled boundary late Sunday-developing in
response to a northern stream shortwave trough and approaching
strong cold front--may allow a slight northward buckling of deeper
moisture and light precip back into the area Sunday evening and into
the day on Monday.  That said, models indicate less phasing between
these systems resulting in a drier trend across central NC during
this period, with primary precip-type expected to be rain.

Dry conditions are expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday with a
moisture-starved clipper trough brushing the area late Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1140 PM Thursday...

Precipitation has spread across the terminals, most notable at the
northern sites of GSO, INT, RDU, and RWI. Thermal profiles and
ground truth observations suggest that with the lighter radar
returns, a mixture of sleet and rain is expected, with the exception
of FAY, which will be all rain for the event. A mixture of snow and
sleet is favored to develop over GSO, INT, and possibly briefly at
RDU, between roughly 08z and 14z, most favored over the Triad
terminals. Thereafter, forecast soundings indicate that thermal
profiles favor rain and drizzle. Rain should taper off between 18
and 21z, latest at FAY. Aviation specific, flight conditions will
deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with the onset of precipitation, with a good
likelihood of LIFR after precipitation tapers off. IFR visibilities
are most favored at GSO/INT in potential light snow early Fri. There
is the potential for fog, mainly across the northern terminals late
Fri night, especially at GSO/INT, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR conditions may persist into Sat with some
improvement possible in the afternoon Sat. Dependent on the degree
of clearing, a redevelopment of sub-VFR fog and stratus will be
possible Sat night into Sun morning ahead of our next weather system
Sun into early Mon. A strong Arctic front will scour out the
lingering sub-VFR conditions and may bring gusty northerly winds Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday
night for NCZ007>011-021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...AK