064
FXUS62 KRAH 061341
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will extend northwest across the Southeastern
states through this afternoon. A slow-moving cold front and low
pressure will slowly move through the region Monday and Monday
night. Canadian high pressure will bring significantly colder air
into the region during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM Sunday...

*The end of the early April record breaking heat and dry weather
will be today.

*It will be windy with gusts to 25-35 mph peaking around early
afternoon.

*Main area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will drench the
western and northern Piedmont late today and tonight.

*There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms this this
afternoon/evening in the west

*Marginal risk of localized urban and poor-drainage flooding in the
west tonight

Only minor changes needed with the update this morning. As showers
continue to fall apart as they move off the higher terrain,
associated cloud cover may deter heating enough and keep wind gusts
weaker than previously advertised.

Previous discussion: The strong sub-tropical high pressure that is
responsible for all our record temperatures in the SE U.S. including
central NC will finally give way today. The mid/upper trough that
has produced all the severe weather and flooding over the MS and OH
valley regions will finally approach the mountains later today and
tonight. Timing of the significant rain including some severe
potential will be a challenge. The trough and front will continue to
be slow moving. Therefore, we can expect that most areas will have a
dry day again today with near record warmth again.

As of 630 AM this morning, there is a line of convection moving
through the NC mountains. Since the upper ridge and warm temps aloft
continue over the region and since we are at our lows for the day -
it appears this line will weaken as it moves over the mountains.
However, some of the CAMS suggest that there may be some
redevelopment over the western Piedmont by late morning or early
afternoon, tracking NE. However, if not the higher POPs for
significant rain remain will arrive later today and tonight in the
western Piedmont. SPC has placed areas of the Piedmont as far east
as the western Triangle in a Marginal (level 1) risk for the
potential of localized damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, expect a dry and windy day today. Winds should
peak late morning into the early afternoon at 20-30 mph with gusts
to 35 mph. Highs 85-90 in the east, with 80-85 west.

The cold front and trough will be slow to edge east tonight. It will
be held up by low pressure development along the front over the
western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
drench the western areas tonight, but the convection will likely
hold off from the Triangle south and east until very late tonight
and especially Monday. Lows tonight will be very warm again for
April in the east (where the rain will hold off) upper 60s to near
70. Lows in the 60-65 range west.

QPF through daybreak Monday is expected to range from around 1" over
the NW Piedmont to 0.10-0.20" over the Triangle, with little to no
rain east and south of the Triangle through late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

Marginal risk of local damaging wind gusts will shift to the SE
part of NC Monday.

A widespread soaking is expected Monday and Monday evening.
Continued Marginal risk of mostly urban and small stream flooding.

Showers will be widespread over western and central NC to start the
day Monday. The latest guidance suggests low pressure will move
over the region Monday and Monday night slowing the progression of
the cold front. It appears that it will be late Monday and Monday
night before the front totally moves through the region. This is
actually good for a significant and soaking rainfall given the
ongoing drought. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of a severe
wind gust or two in the SE counties per SPC during Monday. QPF -
expect several bands of showers/isolated thunderstorms to soak the
entire region Monday. Rain will gradually end in the west later
Monday, then in the east Monday night. Rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches
is expected with locally 2-2.5 where training occurs. Highs will be
held down by the rain and clouds, expect mostly upper 60s and 70s NW
to SE. Lows will really begin to cool in the north and west Monday
night as the wind shifts to the north. Expect readings around 40 in
the NW, ranging into the lower 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

-Frost/freeze conditions likely on Tuesday night.

-Unsettled weather returns Thursday through Saturday.

The cold front and associated precip will move out early Tuesday
morning as cool high pressure builds in from the Upper MS Valley.
Expect mainly sunny skies Tuesday and Tuesday night. After multiple
record breaking days of above normal temperatures, the cool high
pressure will usher in below normal temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 50s to low 60s. As the high pressure
becomes centered over NC/VA overnight lows Tuesday will be chilly
bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. A few colder spots could get
down into the upper 20s along the VA/NC border. Frost/freeze
products may be issued for this time period. Wednesday will be cool
and dry with highs in the upper 50s to low  60s. High pressure will
shift offshore late Wednesday ahead of the next weather disturbance.

Thursday temperatures begin to moderate as a high pressure shifts
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs expected to be in the mid 60s to
low 70s Thursday through Saturday. A cold front moving across the OH
and TN valley will move into our region with increasing PoPs
beginning late Thursday evening. Have slight chance to chance PoPs
Thursday night and most of Friday with higher PoPs Friday afternoon.
Models are a little widespread on timing for the exiting of the
frontal passage but generally suggests late Friday. Some long range
models are showing a few lingering showers Saturday but capped PoPs
around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected today with the exception of
the potential for showers/iso thunderstorms (MVFR) over the
Piedmont, mainly in the Triad. In addition low level wind shear this
morning in the Piedmont will give way to very windy SW winds today
(15-20kt with gusts to 30-35kt). A brief period of MVFR cigs this
morning in the east may reach KFAY.

Showers will become widespread tonight in the west and north with a
cold front, then sag SE across the region Monday. Therefore, MVFR to
VFR conditions will become widespread IFR late tonight and Monday
from west to east.

Outlook: The slow moving cold front will slowly push offshore Monday
night with rain expected to continue into Monday night behind the
front. Widespread IFR conditions will finally begin to clear and
become VFR Monday night.

The next chance for sub-VFR restrictions will arrive late Thursday
into Friday with the arrival of the next shortwave trough and
frontal system into the Eastern US.
&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 6:

KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 6:

KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett/CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH