022
FXUS62 KRAH 091103
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
602 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will build across the region today. The high
will settle across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low
pressure system that swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low
will move across NC Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

* Sub-freezing temperatures will allow any snow or moisture on area
  roads and sidewalks to freeze, producing hazardous travel through
  mid to late morning.

* Cold today with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal

In the wake of exiting shortwave trough, a migratory Arctic high
pressure will weaken while building over the area today before
shifting offshore tonight.

Light snow/flurries have ended across the area, leaving behind
widespread low clouds early this morning. However, dry low-level air
advection from the north, combined with increasing subsidence aloft,
should lead to NE to SW clearing/partial clearing through mid to
late morning.

Across the area that received 1-2 inches of snow across the northern
Piedmont and northern coastal plain, morning lows in the lower to
mid 20s will support slick spots and patchy black ice, especially on
shaded secondary roads, bridges and overpasses. Temperatures rising
above freezing by late morning, combined with increasing solar
radiation, will reduce the risk of slippery conditions.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cold for early December, with
highs ranging from mid/upper 30s north to lower 40s south --about 15
to 20 degrees below normal. After the low stratus scatters out,
expect periods of broken/overcast cirrus and cirrostratus, some of
which may become orographically-enhanced, through tonight. Lows
tonight will fall into the 20s area-wide.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

* Windy conditions will develop ahead of a dry cold front.

The large-scale mid/upper trough over the central and eastern US
will be reinforced by several digging shortwave troughs, including a
clipper-type perturbation and it`s accompanying dry cold front that
will sweep through the mid-Atlantic states late Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

The primary weather impact will be the development of windy
conditions within the pre-frontal regime. SWLY winds will increase
after daybreak and peak during the afternoon/max heat, with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and frequent gusts between 25 to 35
mph, occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph at times. Residents should
secure outside items and holiday decorations.

Expect considerable cloud cover, consisting of mid and high level
clouds, ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will moderate closer
to normal for early December, with highs ranging from near 50 north
to mid 50s south.

Following the dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night, CAA will
ensue. Skies will clear and gusts will diminish. Overnight lows will
fall into the lower 30s north to mid 30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Behind Wednesday`s cold front, the wind should ease off through the
rest of the forecast. While a weak boundary should move through on
Saturday, a lack of moisture will keep the weather dry. The only
chance for precipitation, which is minimal at best, will be late
Saturday night into Sunday morning with another cold front moving
through the region.

However, the bigger impact with the frontal passage will be a change
in temperatures. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday and
Friday before moderating to near normal on Saturday, but once
Sunday`s cold front moves through, much colder air will arrive for
the beginning of next week. Sunday night`s lows will range from the
mid teens to the mid 20s, and most locations on Monday will not
manage to reach 40 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Dry low-level air advection from the north and increasing subsidence
aloft should support a return to VFR condition from NE to SW through
mid to late morning(still some uncertainty on the exact timing).
Thereafter, expect periods of broken/overcast cirrus clouds,
especially across the northern terminals.

Light northerly winds this morning will shift to SWLY into the
afternoon. A 45-50 kt LLJ will result in a period of LLWS
late tonight into early Wednesday.

Outlook: A 45-50 kt LLJ will result in a period of LLWS early
Wednesday, followed by turbulent conditions Wednesday with frequent
SWLY gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Otherwise, predominately VFR is expected
through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CBL