949
FXUS62 KRAH 052328
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
628 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will track northeastward across the
Southeast US and off the Carolina coast this evening. The low will
continue east over the Atlantic tonight, with weak high pressure
settling over the region through the weekend. A mostly dry Arctic
cold front will move through on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicted continued flux of
anomalous moisture from the deep south through the southeast. The
main vort lobe that triggered today`s precipitation continues to
move east over the Mid-Atlantic.  As this feature continues east and
weakens, expect any lingering light rain across eastern areas to end
this evening.  Given the persistent pool of anomalous low-level
moisture expected tonight, there is a good signal for areas of dense
fog especially across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Otherwise, overnight lows should dip into the upper 20s across the
north to mid 30s across the south. There could be some patchy black
ice along the NC/VA border, but these areas didn`t really accumulate
snow today so think it`ll be isolate if at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A weak short-wave will pass over the southeast on Saturday but we
should generally see wnwly flow aloft. As such, the higher PWAT
should generally remain to our south through the period.  Can`t rule
out light rain across the southeast Saturday afternoon, but again
think the chances should be fairly limited.  Daytime highs should
reach the upper 40s under generally cloudy skies.

We won`t see a change in airmass Saturday night, and as such
anomalous low-level moisture will linger over central NC. Aloft,
latest guidance also suggests we could clear out over a bunch of our
CWA behind the little weak short-wave. As such, dense fog may be
possible Saturday night/early Sunday morning across much of our
area. The HREF and REFS probabilities for less than a half mile
visibility is in the 60 to 70% range for much of our area.  We`ll
continue to monitor trends, but as of now there is a good signal in
the guidance that conceptually makes sense.

Overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday. . .

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Sun-Tues.
-Precip chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday.
-Dry weather expected Tuesday through late week.

High pressure will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday,
allowing a weak front to move across the region late Sunday night
into Monday. Moisture will be limited, but a few light showers are
possible. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as precip
arrives, a brief rain/snow mix is possible across the northern
Piedmont, potentially edging slightly farther south Monday morning
as colder, drier air begins to filter in behind the front.
Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, followed by a stronger
push of cool, dry air Monday night. Lows will fall into the upper
teens to lower 20s by early Tuesday. High pressure then dominates
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry conditions with highs in the low
to mid 40s and lows in the 20s Tuesday and mainly 30s Wednesday.
A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
exit off the New England coast Thursday. At this time, associated
precip is expected to remain north of central NC, keeping the area
dry through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 628 PM Friday...

A mixture of LIFR/IFR conditions are projected to start the TAF
period. These conditions are likely to persist through the night,
with LIFR expected at all terminals. Additionally, the potential for
fog is one of the main forecast challenges. The latest observational
and model trends would suggest the best potential for fog is at GSO,
INT, and RDU, with some mid/high level clouds partially clearing
out. The last several runs of the HRRR and statistical guidance
shows this as well, with the greatest potential at the Triad
terminals. As such, included prevailing fog at these sites, but was
not confident just yet to include prevailing fog at RDU. For now,
opted for a TEMPO group between 09 and 13z. Guidance suggests
conditions should slowly lift from LIFR to IFR then MVFR, with
potential VFR by late in the TAF period. There is, however, some
guidance, showing conditions remaining sub-VFR through the period.
For now, opted to show some optimistic conditions by late afternoon
Sat as WSW winds develop.

Outlook: Dense fog will again be possible Saturday night/Sunday
morning as anomalous low-level moisture lingers of central NC.  A
short-wave will induce light precipitation (likely mostly rain, but
perhaps a chance for some winter weather across the north) on
Monday. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to
middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Kren/Luchetti