Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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611 FXUS62 KRAH 300746 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track east across the region today, then move just offshore tonight. A moist NE flow will develop tonight and continue Tuesday. A cold front will finally push east across the region mid-week, bringing clearing skies and lower humidities. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM Monday... Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and early evening. The mid/upper low over eastern KY/WVA will slowly drift ENE today and tonight and gradually weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region tonight. At the surface, weak low pressure will be over south- central NC today, gradually shifting to the east to the coast tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially this afternoon into the evening, with numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms over the northern and eastern sections (north of the track of the weak wave). QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 can be expected, with locally up to 1 to 1.5 inches especially north and east of Raleigh. This is supported by the latest CAM`s solutions. Some mostly minor flooding will be possible, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Highs in the 70s northeast ranging into the 80s south today. The flow will become more NNE overnight as the low pressure shifts east of the region. Low stratus and fog are expected overnight in the continued very moist atmosphere. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Monday... Low overcast conditions expected Tuesday with a chance of light rain. The mid/upper low will become a weakening lingering trough across the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low pressure will be along the coast with a continued moist and more stable NNE flow into central NC. Low stratus and fog will likely persist well into the day Tuesday. There is a chance of some light rain and drizzle, but the threat of heavy rain will be along the coast. Highs should range from the lower 70s north into the lower 80s south. Expect cloudy skies Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 AM Monday... There continues to be good consensus that nwly flow aloft will spread across central NC Wednesday as anoamlous moisture slowly eases offshore through Thursday morning. At the sfc, a weak and dry cold front will pass through Wednesday night. Dry and near to slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s; lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s) will result Wednesday and Thursday. From Thursday onward, latest ensemble guidance does seem to be in a bit better agreement in potentially shunting deep moisture associated with another potential Gulf system to our south. However, some outliers do still bring a system up into our area late this weekend (albeit considerably weaker compared to Helene). For now, will go with consensus and maintain a dry forecast Thursday through Sunday, but will continue to monitor. Temperatures should remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s through Saturday, and perhaps a bit cooler on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... 24 hour TAF period: A period of IFR to LIFR cigs and possibly some LIFR fog appears likely at most sites between 09z and 12z. Otherwise, expect the cigs to lift to MVFR to VFR this afternoon. Scattered showers are expected, especially north and east of FAY. Outlook: Scattered showers may persist across the north Mon night, with additional showers/storms possible again through Tuesday aft/eve. Thereafter, the forecast should be dry through the rest of the extended period. Early morning fog/low stratus will be possible each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...Badgett/KC