499
FXUS62 KRAH 060022
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
820 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in from the north and northeast
through Sunday. A strong cold front will cross the region Monday,
allowing a cool and dry air mass to build into the region through
the rest of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 820 PM Saturday...

The radar currently shows some isolated showers in Sampson County as
well as to the east of the forecast area near Greenville. Think the
showers could linger another hour or two, then should fade out
overnight. Some drier air has made its way into western counties,
with dewpoints in the Triad in the upper 50s and lower 60s while
locations along I-95 have dewpoints around 70. Although there is the
potential for fog or low clouds anywhere tonight, the higher
dewpoints to the east favor those locations to have any dense fog
develop. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in the north to
the mid 60s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

A vigorous shortwave will pivot through the Great Lakes and New
England around the base of a closed mid/upper low over southern
Ontario on Sunday and Sunday night. Weak mid/upper ridging will
extend east from the Desert Southwest into the Deep South. Central
NC will be under the influence of NW flow aloft as it is sandwiched
between these two features, promoting dry conditions and mostly
sunny skies after the early morning fog quickly burns off. At the
surface, ridging extending from New England into the Mid-Atlantic
will weaken and push east on Sunday, switching the flow from
northeasterly to southerly. High temperatures will be similar to
today`s, in the upper-70s to lower-80s. Unlike today, dew points
should mix out and be fairly comfortable across the whole area, in
the upper-50s to lower-60s.

A strong cold front will cross the Appalachians on Sunday night.
High-res guidance depicts the associated line of showers dissipating
as it goes over the mountains. There is less of a signal for fog on
the HREF and statistical guidance compared to tonight, but it will
still be possible. Lows should again be in the upper-50s to lower-
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 PM Saturday...

Upper level shortwave will move across the region Monday with
limited moisture after moving across the Appalachian mtns. By
Tuesday a large upper level low over eastern Canada will shift east
with troughing over the Mid-Atlantic region through mid week. By
late week, upper level ridging that was building across the Central
Plains begins to shift over eastern CONUS over the weekend.

At the surface, A cold front will move across the region Monday
afternoon and usher in cool drier air from the NW. Some low level
moisture lingering ahead of the front may interact with the front as
it moves over the Coastal Plain in the afternoon, resulting in some
light isolated showers across the region. Thus, have the low end
slight chance PoP along and east of I95 Monday afternoon. High
pressure will then dominate the region through the rest of the
period with dry cool weather.

Temperatures will be above average Monday with highs generally in
the upper 70s to low 80s. After the front moves through in the
afternoon Monday, expect refreshing fall like temps with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s Tues-Fri. By Saturday expect a warm up
Saturday with temps ranging from low 70s north to upper 70s south.
Low temperatures will begin to drop Monday night with the front
moving through with overnight temps falling into the low 50s north
to low 60s south. Radiational cooling will be strong each night with
high pressure in place with overnight lows in the low 40s to low
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 705 PM Saturday...

TAF period: There should be little more than some passing mid level
clouds through the evening at eastern sites. However, all sites are
expected to have restrictions late tonight into Sunday morning.
Prevailing MVFR conditions are forecast at all terminals, with IFR
fog/LIFR stratus in TEMPO groups and the highest confidence in
restrictions at FAY/RWI. It should take most of the morning for
sites to return to VFR conditions, with light winds expected in the
afternoon after calm conditions through the first half of the TAF.

Outlook: Another round of fog will be possible late Sunday night
into Morning morning, with the greatest potential at FAY. An
isolated shower will be possible at FAY/RWI late Monday as a cold
front moves through. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the
rest of the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green