


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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141 FXUS62 KRAH 020634 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 234 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off the Middle Atlantic coast today. In warming and moistening southeasterly flow to its west, a warm front will lift north across the Carolinas today, then slow and become quasi-stationary over the NC Foothills and northwest Piedmont late this afternoon through Thursday morning. The front will dissipate later Thursday and give way to unseasonably strong and warm, sub- tropical high pressure that will extend across the South Atlantic states through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 908 PM Tuesday... No major changes with the evening update. An area of mid and low clouds are moving across the TN and OH valley and will stream across the area overnight and into early morning. Some low stratus is expected early morning especially across the northern Piedmont counties. Otherwise overnight will be quiet with lows in the mid/upper 40s north to low 50s south. As of 225 PM Tuesday...High pressure is currently centered over Ontario with ridging extending south-southeast into the Carolinas. The high is expected to slide to the southeast this afternoon and tonight, which will slowly turn the wind from the north to the east by midnight. Although this will not result in much of a difference with the surface dewpoint, the easterly flow will bring additional moisture into central North Carolina, and low clouds should increase in coverage. While locations to the east such as Roanoke Rapids, Rocky Mountain, and Clinton should remain partly cloudy overnight, expect mostly cloudy skies in Wadesboro and Winston-Salem by daybreak. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s in the northeast to the low 50s in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Tuesday... Strong and expansive mid level ridging will continue to build over and off the Southeast coast Wed, resulting in a closed anticyclone E of FL Wed night. At the surface, high pressure centered well to our N over Quebec will extend weakly into central and eastern NC early Wed, with slowly waning influence through Wed and Wed night as the high`s center tracks NE over E Canada away from NC. The moist upglide which ramps up quickly in the predawn hours over the Sandhills and W Piedmont at 285-300K will persist through Wed, focused along a sloped frontal zone lifting NNE through the region, resulting in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies in the NW and partly cloudy SE. Patchy light rain or drizzle remains possible, particularly focused along this frontal zone in areas W of Hwy 1. Hydrometeors will be small given the lack of saturation aloft, so any precip should be very light, which is supported by HREF measurable rain chances which are very low and confined to the far NW. The strengthening SSE/SE flow riding atop the low level stable pool deposited by the exiting high and resultant clouds and this light precip potential should help lock in the cooler stable air through much of the day over the NW Piedmont, with the in situ wedge regime reinforced through differential thermal advection in the vertical. As a result, while highs are likely to reach into the 70- 75 range from the Triangle S and E, the far NW Piedmont including the Triad should see highs in the 60-65 range with reduced insolation. The surface ridge will be rather transitory, propelled in part by a polar stream low tracking ENE over the Upper Midwest and S Ontario, so the lingering stable pool in the NW should eventually succumb to the elevated/deepening WAA late Wed. Widespread stratocu is likely to form areawide Wed night, with strong low level WAA leading to steady or slowly rising temps (the latter particularly in the NW) overnight. Lows, which may occur in the evening, will range from around 60 to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... A generally low-pop/QPF period with near-record warmth (see climate section below) is expected through Saturday night, with good rain chances Sun/Mon followed by dry and more seasonable weather Tue. Thu-Fri: Subtropical ridging will hold off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast through late week, with southerly low-level flow persisting over the Gulf states, Southeast, and Carolinas, and a surface frontal zone situated to our W and N around the periphery of the ridge. The warm and dry capping in our mid levels will stave off any deep convection, but shots of moist upglide and shallow convection will necessitate leaving a small chance of showers over the NW CWA Thu. Models still show a potent polar stream shortwave trough crossing SE Canada Thu night/Fri which will nudge the front southward toward the VA/NC border Fri/Fri night. While large scale forcing for ascent near this front will be small to absent, a ribbon of PW near 1.5" in its vicinity along with sufficient heating for a window of marginal to moderate MUCAPE should support a period of chance pops Fri aftn/night. Steady WAA will push thicknesses up to 40-50 m above normal, indicating highs in the 80s to around 90 both days, with mild lows in the 60s. Sat-Tue: The surface front will head back well to our N early Sat, keeping us in an anomalously warm regime. A strong and digging polar stream trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region and Northeast over the weekend, which along with the ejection of shortwave energy from the Desert Southwest low into the Southern Plains and Mid Miss Valley will gradually flatten our anticyclonic flow aloft, with increasing SW steering flow into the Carolinas. We may see a few light showers in the N/NW Sat/Sat night, but the best chance for prefrontal convection still looks to be late Sun afternoon through Sun night, and will continue focus the highest pops then, peaking at likely for now until timing and amounts come into better focus. Polar and southern stream phasing appear likely, culminating in positively tilted longwave troughing from Quebec to TX Mon, and having the steering flow likely to be roughly parallel to the cold front should result in a slow frontal movement through NC, and will leave in a chance of rain esp E Mon. Cool and dense high pressure building in from the Midwest should finally push the front to our SE by Tue, leading to clearing skies. Expect highs once again in the 80s to around 90 Sat/Sun, then back down to near normal Mon, in the mid 60s to lower 70s, then 60s areawide Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Esely flow will direct low-level moisture onshore and result in the continued development and expansion of an area of IFR to low MVFR ceilings that have blossomed in the past few hours from sern NC and nern SC nwwd into the NC Sandhills (including FAY). Those ceilings will likely reach INT/GSO around 08-09, where they will linger throughout the morning, and possibly throughout the entire TAF period at INT (and especially points wwd into the mountains). MVFR ceilings will be more likely at RDU later this morning, and possibly as far east as RWI by this afternoon. IFR ceilings are likely to become widespread tonight and be accompanied by periods of light rain and drizzle especially over the Piedmont. Outlook: IFR ceilings will be likely Thu night and Fri night, amid unseasonably moist/humid low-level flow. A strong cold front will be accompanied by a band of convection and flight restrictions, as it moves slowly east across cntl NC late Sun afternoon through Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 3: KRDU: 91/1967 KFAY: 90/1934 April 4: KGSO: 86/1934 KRDU: 88/1934 KFAY: 93/1910 April 5: KGSO: 87/1942 KRDU: 90/1942 KFAY: 91/1942 April 6: KGSO: 89/2010 KRDU: 93/1967 KFAY: 91/2010 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KGSO: 64/1946 KRDU: 62/2000 KFAY: 65/1977 April 4: KGSO: 62/1999 KRDU: 63/2017 KFAY: 63/2017 April 5: KGSO: 60/2023 KRDU: 64/1910 KFAY: 64/2008 April 6: KGSO: 65/2023 KRDU: 69/2023 KFAY: 69/2023 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green/CA SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH