106
FXUS62 KRAH 130757
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of areas of low pressure will meander off the Middle and
South Atlantic coasts through early Tuesday, while high pressure
will build from the OH and TN Valleys to the southern Appalachians.
A dry, backdoor cold front will move south across the region
Wednesday evening, followed by Canadian high pressure that will
build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

A shortwave trough, including an elongated low and series of
vorticity maxima along and just offshore the South Atlantic coast in
GOES-E WV and 00Z-observed upr air data, will lift newd through the
wrn N. Atlantic through 12Z Tue. Through the same time, a separate
mid/upr-level low now over wrn NY will dig sewd and across and
offshore the srn Middle Atlantic. A sub-tropical high centered over
the srn Plains will otherwise become anomalously strong and yield
500 mb standardized height anomalies of 1-3 sigma across much of the
surrounding Plains and MS Valley by Tue.

At the surface, a ~1002-1003 mb low now centered about 25 miles
southeast of MYR will move generally ewd and away from the coast of
the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a separate, ~1003-1004 mb low now centered
about 75 miles east of WAL will drift nwwd to near the srn NJ coast
by this evening, then ssewd along and just offshore the srn Middle
Atlantic coast through early Tue. Nly flow will remain over cntl NC,
between those lows and an area of high pressure that will strengthen
across the OH and TN Valleys and srn Appalachians.

A low-level deformation cloud and patchy light precipitation band
now over cntl NC, related to the coastal low centered off the nrn SC
coast, will edge ewd as the low does. As a consequence, initially
overcast skies throughout cntl NC this morning will scatter and
brighten to partly sunny over the srn and wrn Piedmont, with
probable continued cloudy or mostly so conditions that will linger
in the Coastal Plain. High temperatures will follow a similar
distribution as the clouds and range from mid 70s in the srn and wrn
Piedmont to upr 60s to around 70 in the Coastal Plain.

Most of the forecast area will be rain-free after the light
precipitation band edges out of the area this morning. However, a
secondary deformation band in moist, nly flow around the coastal low
forecast to drift down the srn Middle Atlantic coast will overspread
the nrn and cntl Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont late tonight-Tue
morning. Related, renewed isentropic lift/moisture transport
centered in the 295-300 K layer (and 850 mb level) will probably
support adequate lift to generate patchy light rain there Tue
morning. Indeed, point forecast soundings at IXA and RWI depict a 4-
6 t thousand ft saturated layer centered around 850 mb, with 25-30
kts of flow that would be supportive of warm rain processes. A 20-30
percent chance of a hundredth or three have consequently been
introduced for the nrn and cntl Coastal Plain and adjacent far ne
Piedmont counties in the several hours around sunrise Tue. While
temperatures should decrease into the lwr-mid 50s for lows in most
areas tonight, some warming through the upr 50s to near 60 will be
possible with the arrival of the deformation cloud band prior to
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

The closed mid/upper low east of the southern Mid-Atlantic coast on
Tuesday morning will move farther east into the Atlantic through
Tuesday night, opening up into a wave as it does so. The surface low
will take a similar track, moving from east of the NC coast to just
north of Bermuda by Wednesday morning. A mid-level perturbation
rotating around the low will pass through eastern NC on Monday night
and Tuesday morning. When combined with continued saturation in the
low levels depicted on model soundings, some very light rain may
linger into Tuesday morning across our eastern zones. So have slight
chance POPs in the northern Coastal Plain on Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, Tuesday will be a dry day in the subsident regime on the
backside of the low, with just lingering low clouds in the east.
Northerly winds could gust to 15-20 mph at times. Temperatures
should be slightly warmer (by 2-3 degrees) compared to today but
with a similar spatial distribution owing to where the low clouds
stick around the longest. Forecast highs range from upper-60s to
lower-70s in the far NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain to upper-70s in
the far western Piedmont.

The low clouds will finally push east of central NC on Tuesday night
as drier air moves in and the mean flow turns more NW. Lows will be
in the lower-to-mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

Wednesday through Saturday will be dry and mostly sunny across
central NC under the influence of NW flow aloft between mid/upper
ridging to our west and troughing to our east. The ridge will
initially be centered over the Southern Plains before amplifying and
shifting east to the TN Valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
Friday. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will dive SE from the
Upper Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday through Friday.
This will push a dry backdoor cold front south through central NC on
Wednesday night. A closed mid/upper low will then move from south-
central Canada to the Upper Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in
deep troughing in the Eastern US and dragging a cold front to its
south that looks to pass through central NC on Sunday night. Some
showers are possible with the front, but with the best upper forcing
to our north and meager instability, rainfall amounts don`t look too
impressive with GFS/ECM ensemble mean QPF only in the tenth to
quarter inch range.

After one day of warmer-than-normal temperatures on Wednesday (highs
ranging from lower-70s NE to upper-70s west), it will turn much
cooler on Thursday and Friday with highs only ranging from mid-60s
NE to lower-70s SW. Dew points will only be in the 30s and 40s.
While Wednesday and Friday nights will have lows in the mid-40s to
lower-50s, Thursday night will be the coolest of the period. Owing
to good radiational cooling conditions near the center of the
surface high, lows will be in the upper-30s to lower-40s.
Temperatures will turn warmer on Saturday and Sunday with highs in
the mid-to-upper-70s and lows in the 50s as the surface high moves
off the coast of the Carolinas and we get SW return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

In moist nely flow around a couple of coastal lows centered at 06Z
off the DelMarVA and nrn SC coast, respectively, ceilings will hover
between 700 and 1500 ft AGL over cntl NC this morning, lowest and
most likely in IFR range at FAY and RWI. Those ceilings will then
gradually lift and scatter to VFR from west to east through the day,
first at INT and GSO and last at RWI and FAY. Nely surface winds
will remain gusty at times through midday, then diminish this
afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A secondary surge of moist, nely flow will overspread nern
NC with renewed MVFR-IFR ceilings and patchy light rain late tonight-
Tue morning, including at RWI and near and especially just northeast
of RDU. Once those ceilings lift and scatter to VFR through early
Tue afternoon, a prolonged period of VFR conditions are likely
throughout cntl NC the rest of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...MWS