904
FXUS62 KRAH 022315
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
715 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain over northwest North Carolina tonight
through Thursday morning. The front will resume its northward motion
late Thursday, lifting well north of the area and leading to a
strong warm air flow into the region through Sunday. A cold front
will approach from the west Sunday evening, then slowly move through
the region through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...

With high pressure centered off the New England coast, moist
easterly flow allowed for widespread cloud cover this morning except
easternmost counties. However, the stratus has broken up, now
transitioning to more of diurnal cumulus with stratus remaining
across western North Carolina and Virginia. High temperature bust
potential was always possible in the Triad depending on whether the
in-situ CAD persisted or not, and temperatures have risen above the
low 60s forecast for Forsyth County. Something that several
consecutive runs of the HRRR have shown is an area of convection
developing across western counties (Davidson, Stanly, Anson) late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Although more recent
runs of the HRRR have trended this convection slightly later,
primarily after sunset, have switched the character of any
precipitation this afternoon/evening to convective showers instead
of the previously mentioned drizzle/light rain. After midnight,
think that any precipitation would be stratiform in nature, with
widespread cloud cover expected to redevelop overnight. The cloud
cover will result in a very mild night - lows will be mostly in the
60s, with some lower 70s possible around Fayetteville.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

* Thursday will begin a stretch of anomalously warm conditions with
  little overnight relief.

Widespread low overcast, and perhaps some light drizzle, Thur
morning will gradually lift/scatter from southeast to northwest
through the morning into the early afternoon.

Continued strengthening/expanding of the anomalous sub-tropical
ridge over the southwest N. Atlantic, scattering cloud cover, and
12z low-level thicknesses 40m above normal for early April, will
result in the first of several days of abnormal heat for central NC
as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. Warmest
temps will likely be across the Sandhills into the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain where erosion low overcast occurs first.

In the wake of the low overcast, diurnal heating of the already
warm/moist airmass in place will result in moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) mainly over the Piedmont. Proximity to
the strong sub-tropical ridge may prevent much or even any deep
convection, but isolated showers will be possible during the
afternoon into the early evening hours. Among the latest 12z Hi-Res
guidance, only the HRRR develops any deeper convection, likely since
it has surface dew points closer to 70 degrees while mean 12z HREF
dew points are closer to mid 60s during the afternoon. Light
stirring southwesterly flow and potential redevelopment of some low
overcast will result in another unseasonably warm night as
temperatures only dip into the mid 60s.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

High chances for showers and isolated storms late Sun into Mon will
be bookended by near-record warmth on the front end and cool temps
with a freeze potential on the back end.

Fri/Fri night: Generally dry and very warm conditions are expected,
but there remains a chance for a few showers and perhaps a storm in
the far N, near the VA border, associated with a backdoor front.
This frontal approach will be largely driven by a fast polar
shortwave trough crossing E Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes,
allowing a progressive 1030+ mb high to briefly nose down the Mid
Atlantic coast. This cooler air should be fleeting and shallow this
far S, as the strong low-mid level anticyclone just off the
Southeast/FL will persist. The ens output shows a pretty small
spread with this frontal feature, and the output mean takes the
front just to the NC/VA border Fri evening before dissolving or
lifting the surface front back northward by daybreak Sat. The ens
members favor at least isolated convection Fri evening into the
overnight hours, particularly in our far NE over and E of Kerr Lake,
in conjunction with a ribbon of ~1.25" PW near the front. Will
maintain the previous chance pops late afternoon through evening,
with isolated thunder given a short period of 500-1000 J/kg
projected. If we can manage to get any CAPE, given the shallow
strongly veering profile near the surface near and just N of this
boundary on forecast hodographs, a quick spinup of a landspout could
occur, but this potential is very low, given the poor CAPE and lack
of other strong lift. With thicknesses likely to be 50-60 m above
normal with decent sunshine (after a little morning stratus) and
deep mixing, highs in the 80s to around 90 are likely (see climate
section below for record temp info). Lows mostly in the low-mid 60s.

Sat/Sat night: Dry and continued quite warm, with the strong
subtropical ridge holding firm and keeping us stable and capped
aloft, and strong WAA in the low levels. We again may see areas of
stratus early Sat and again late Sat night, with partly cloudy skies
between, and with thicknesses staying anomalously high, temps should
again peak in the mid 80s to around 90, perhaps some lower 90s, with
mild lows in the 60s.

Sun through Mon: Best chance for prefrontal convection still looks
to be Sun evening and night, with chances shifting to along/E of Hwy
1 Mon. The surface cold front is expected to be situated from the
central Gulf up through central and E TN and central PA to New
England early Sun. Strengthening and flattening SW steering flow
from the TX Gulf coast through the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast
will tamp down the subtropical ridge and suppress it SE, and as the
correlated prefrontal ribbon of 1.5-2.0" PW is nudged eastward by
digging troughing in the polar stream with southern stream phasing,
we should see an increase in both thick cloud cover and rain chances
from the west late in the day, with models pointing to Sun evening
and overnight for the peak coverage, and will maintain high pops,
likely to categorical, during this time window. The front should
slow for a time or even stall out briefly into Mon as we await
southern stream sheared energy to help kick the front to our east,
and will slowly decrease and exit rain chances W to E Mon into the
evening. Ens probabilities of more than a couple hundred J/kg of
CAPE is pretty low, so have held onto lower thunder coverage,
isolated to scattered at most, likely embedded within the showers.
Still expect plenty of highs in the 80s to near 90 Sun, then mostly
70s Mon.

Tue/Wed: Dry and much cooler, with a freeze still possible in some
areas Tue night. The secondary/reinforcing cold front is expected to
be over far W NC early Tue, pushing SE through central NC during the
day and settling well S across FL as cool high pressure builds in
from the Ohio Valley and Midwest and mid level polar stream
troughing shifts through the E CONUS, features with which the ens
output shows very good agreement. Thus, confidence is high in dry
conditions with below normal temps, culminating in low level
thicknesses projected to be 50-60 m below normal Wed morning. Freeze
conditions may occur, esp if we can decouple Tue night. Expect highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions across the area at the moment, but conditions
will rapidly deteriorate to IFR or lower between 00Z and 06Z as
onshore flow and weak isentropic ascent support the development of
widespread stratus later tonight. All sites should see several hours
of low ceilings through daybreak, after which time clouds will
gradually break up and return to VFR before noon. Weak ascent should
also support widespread drizzle across the western Piedmont in
particular, although likely not enough to restrict vsbys. The weak
ascent may also result in a few hours of LLWS at INT, but likely not
strong enough to warrant inclusion elsewhere.

Something else worth monitoring tonight is the potential for
isolated shower development across the far western Piedmont,
including near INT. Showers have formed south of the CLT metro and
are making their way northward. Several runs of the HRRR are
insistent that these will maintain themselves as far north as the
NC/VA border, moving through INT in the process. I`ll maintain a few
hours of PROB30 for a brief shower there, but leave the remainder of
the area shower free.

Outlook: IFR ceilings are likely again Thursday night and Friday
night, despite the meager precipitation chances, due to moist/humid
low-level flow. A strong cold front will bring showers and possibly
a thunderstorm along with flight restrictions as early as Sunday
afternoon at INT/GSO and continuing at all sites Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Leins/Green
CLIMATE...RAH