340
FXUS62 KRAH 010652
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
252 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will push through the area very early today. Much drier
and cooler high pressure will then extend into the southeast today
through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and humidity is expected
by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

The cold front was moving south through southern VA into northern
NC. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along
and near the front. As it moves south through central NC through
12z, there will continue to be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. PW values of 2+ inches will continue to support
locally heavy downpours.

A 1027 mb surface high pressure located over WI/MI this morning will
build into NC from the north behind the cold front. Much drier and
cooler air will advect into the region today. There will be a period
of gusty wind from the NE at 10 to 20 mph behind the front for
several hours this morning, before diminishing gusts in the
afternoon. Stratus and stratocumulus will gradually decrease through
late morning and early afternoon in the east. Skies will become
mostly sunny this afternoon with highs only in the lower to mid 80s.

Mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

The high pressure will be located along the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Sunny skies with low relative humidities
can be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Clear and
relatively cool conditions are expected Tuesday night with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the TN Valley/Deep
South Wed/Wed night. A series of northern stream s/w disturbances
will track eastward from the northern Plains through the Great
Lakes/OH Valley from Tue through Sun, with each successive s/w
slowly pushing the high, first southward to over the Southeast and
Deep South Thu and Fri then eastward off the Southeast US and mid-
Atlantic coast Sat and Sun. At the surface, the high will sit off
the mid-Atlantic coast Wed/Wed night, with the ridge axis shifting
eastward out of central NC through early Thu. Once the ridge shifts
east out of the area, a lee trough will set up and remain in place
through Sat night, when a cold front will approach from the west. As
of the latest model solutions, the front appears to wash out along
or west of the Appalachians. Expect swly flow and the advection of
warm, moist air into the area to take over once the ridge moves out
Thu morning. Temperatures may actually be near normal on Wed, but
will then be above to well above normal Thu through Sun. As for
rainfall, Wed/Wed night should be dry, but as the mid-level ridge
gradually gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, some
diurnally driven convection will be possible Thu, but more likely
Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve. Latest forecast heat index values do
creep back to around 105 again in a few spots on Thu, however the
more widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 (across much of
central NC) are expected Fri and Sat. Some lingering heat index
values of 100-105 are possible across the south and east on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue across central
NC early this morning as a cold front moves through between 10z and
13z. The best chance at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI).
Some stratus is also expected to develop after about 07z-08z at FAY
and RWI, with MVFR or IFR ceilings possible. Models differ on how
far west the sub-VFR stratus will reach, but for now have a TEMPO
for MVFR ceilings at RDU. Winds will shift from S/SW to NE behind
the cold front. NE winds may gust to 15-25 kts into early afternoon
before gradually diminishing.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday afternoon through
Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return
flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for
diurnal showers/ storms and early morning fog/stratus from Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco