396
FXUS62 KRAH 120058
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
858 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the northeast coast of Florida will intensify as it
tracks slowly northeast along the coast of the Southeast states,
Carolinas, and Mid Atlantic through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Light rain continues to move into our southern areas as the offshore
low develops. Thus far, radar estimates are only highlighting trace
to a few hundreds of an inch in areas that have received rain.
Latest high-res guidance continues the trend of very light
stratiform rain spreading n-nw through this afternoon and evening.
As we progress into the late evening to overnight period, some
steadier (light to moderate) rain will move nw into the Coastal
Plain and portions of the Sandhills/Central Piedmont. The HREF LPMM
QPF continues to highlight perhaps three quarters to an inch of rain
in the Triangle area through 12Z Sunday morning. Those west of US-1
will likely see very little (a few hundreds to a few tenths) through
12Z Sunday, while those along I-95 may see up to an inch and a half
to maybe 2 inches in isolated spots. Given these expected rain
totals and how dry its been in the Coastal Plain, not expecting any
flooding impacts from this system. Otherwise, we`ll continue to see
nnely sfc gusts pick up this afternoon and evening with frequent
gusts of 15 to 25 mph.  Those in the Coastal Plain could see a bit
stronger gusts after 06Z tonight, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible
through mid Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

* Continued breezy with high rain chances, decreasing late.

Models agreed fairly well that the surface low will be near the
southern Outer Banks or southern coast of NC tomorrow morning, with
a likely secondary low further N along the Mid Atlantic coast. The
mid levels will continue to feature a deep E Coast low/trough,
highlighted by 2 embedded closed lows over GA/SC and NY. The surface
low is expected to steadily lift northward, reaching the tip of the
Delmarva by late Sun night. (It is worth noting that the RAP/HRRR
instead favor taking the low slowly SSW over E SC Sun/Sun night, not
an impossible solution given the presence of the slow-moving mid
level trough. But with a high spread among HREF members, will favor
a more progressive low at this time.) Given the expected high
moisture content through the low and mid levels over central NC,
strong and confluent northeasterly low level (925-850 mb) moisture
flux, a stream of 150% of normal PW, and forcing for ascent provided
by moist upglide topped with fading but still-present upper
divergence and weak DPVA, continued high pops in the 50-70% range
are warranted. An area of higher categorical pops may be necessary
over central and eastern sections, depending on where the cold front
aloft sets up as the surface low tracks northward. Additional
rainfall of a quarter to three-quarters of an inch is expected, with
isolated higher amounts possible if any pivoting rainbands form.
Winds just off the surface are projected to be from the NNE around
35-45 kts for much of the day, and with at least some groundward
mixing and modest low-level stability, peak gusts of 25-30 mph are
expected, a bit of an uptick from the previous forecast. With
minimal sunshine, thick clouds, CAA, and areas of rain, temps over
most of the area should move just 5-8 degrees from tonight`s lows,
putting highs in the mid 60s to around 70. Rain should gradually
diminish by evening and particularly overnight, with pops decreasing
to low chances mainly NE late and low amounts as lift wanes and we
lose moisture aloft. Expect a low diurnal range to persist, with
lows in the mid 50s to around 60, as we see a steady breeze last
into the night with continued high moisture in the low levels and
only partial clearing expected in the west late. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

* Lingering light rain possible in the E CWA early Mon morning,
  otherwise dry weather expected through the week.

Gradual drying is expected to continue Mon morning as low level flow
backs to a more NNW to NW direction, yielding a downslope component,
although as noted above, if the recent RAP/HRRR is correct, we may
see light rain chances hold on longer over the E as one last dose of
energy swings through the trough base over E NC Mon. Otherwise, as
the surface low departs to the NE, mild high pressure building in
from the W along with rising heights aloft due to amplified mid
level ridging spreading in from SE TX will result in fair skies and
near to above normal temps into mid week. A renewed digging of a
deep mid level low over the far NW Atlantic off New England late in
the week is still expected to drag a dry backdoor cold front
southward through NC, drawing cooler thicknesses back into the area
and bumping temps back below normal for Thu/Fri. Moist return flow
will be lacking with this front, so aside from perhaps early Mon,
dry weather is likely through Fri.

Expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Mon, coolest NE, followed
by low-upper 70s Tue/Wed, then back to the mid 60s to mid 70s for
Thu and Fri. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 855 PM Saturday...

MVFR to VFR ceilings and light rain continue to spread over the
region as the coastal low continues to develop offshore. Overnight,
MVFR ceilings should spread westward and continue to lower to IFR.
IFR ceilings are expected to last throughout the day on Sunday, with
periods of LIFR ceilings possible Sunday evening in the eastern TAF
sites (RDU/FAY/RWI). Gusty winds should also continue overnight and
through the day on Sunday. Gusts up to 25 kts are most likely, with
gusts up to 30 to 35 kts possible, especially in the east. Gusts
will lessen the chance of LLWS criteria being met, however kept the
mention at RDU/FAY/RWI as a strong jet around 50-55 kts is expected
at around 925mb. Light rain, with periods of moderate rain possible,
is also expected to continue throughout the night and day. This
could reduce visibilities to sub-VFR.

Outlook: Light rain and sub-VFR ceilings may persist into the
overnight period on Sunday. The low will lift north into the
Delmarva area by Monday morning, behind which drier air should clear
out the sub-VFR cloudiness through Monday afternoon. VFR conditions
will then persist through the rest of the extended as high pressure
settles down the east coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...NTL
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...LH/NTL