797
FXUS62 KRAH 091942
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
341 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure centers tracking eastward along a stalled
cold front to our south will bring a chance for unsettled weather
through Monday night. Warm high pressure will build in from the
southwest Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Sunday...

A surface low is currently centered just east of New Orleans, along
a stalled front that extends along the northern Gulf Coast into the
FL panhandle and far southern GA. Water vapor imagery depicts an
intense closed mid/upper low centered over the Ark-La-Tex region,
with SW flow ahead of it streaming Gulf moisture into the Southeast
US. Some of this moisture aloft is reaching central NC, and while we
just had a brief period of clearing, satellite shows a return of mid
and high clouds across the area. However, the low levels are quite
dry, due to a ~1020 mb surface high centered over southern NC and
SC. So observed cloud bases have been in the 10-20 kft range across
central NC, while surface dew points have mixed out into the 20s,
with even some teens over the far northern and western Piedmont.
Observed PW values are only 0.25-0.5" according to SPC mesoanalysis.
So while there may be continued periods of light virga through this
evening, don`t expect anything to reach the ground, and don`t have
any mentionable POPs over the area during this period. This
afternoon`s high temperatures will mainly be in the upper-50s to
around 60, which is near to slightly below normal.

Clouds will begin to thicken and lower overnight as the surface low
tracks ENE along the front, reaching coastal GA by early Monday
morning. This will spread low-level moisture and isentropic ascent
into our southern zones, with PW values there increasing to the 0.8-
1" range. Meanwhile the mid/upper low will track east across the
lower MS Valley into MS and AL, so heights over central NC will
begin to fall. Thus POPs begin creeping into our far southern
counties after 09z, but they remain in the slight to low chance
range as there are still some discrepancies in the high res guidance
on how quickly the rain will arrive. Regardless, any rainfall
amounts through 12z will be very light. Due to the cloud cover,
leaned toward the warmer side of guidance for tonight`s lows, which
are forecast to be in the upper-30s to mid-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

On Monday morning, a surface low should be over southeastern
Georgia, slowly moving off the South Carolina coast by Monday
evening, and moving a couple hundred miles off the coastline of the
Carolinas by Tuesday morning. Have slightly increased pops across
southern counties, but still have not extended likely pops any
farther north than US-64. The maximum coverage of rainfall is
expected to occur in the mid/late afternoon. While the SPC forecast
shows general thunderstorms across southern tier counties, model
soundings at Fayetteville are lacking in instability, and have
continued to go with stratiform rain instead of convective showers
and thunderstorms. Storm total precipitation has come down slightly -
 it`s possible locations north of US-64 may not receive any
precipitation, with southern Sampson County the only area forecast
to receive at least half an inch of rain. The high temperature
forecast went up one or two degrees in most locations, with near
normal temperatures still expected for highs and lows, around 60 and
40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Expect above to much-above normal temps this period, with the best
chances for showers and storms over the weekend.

Tue/Tue night: Dry and warm. Eastern areas may be a little breezy
Tue morning, until the deep low pushes further offshore. Otherwise,
in the wake of the exiting low, mid level ridging building over the
Carolinas and a surface high centered over the N Gulf drifting
eastward over the Southeast/FL will result in quiet weather with
more sun than clouds for central NC. Highs 70-75 and lows in the 40s.

Wed/Wed night: Continued dry, and perhaps a bit cooler in the NE.
Flat mid level ridging largely persists over the Southeast and Mid
South, although a weak perturbation passing overhead early Wed
morning may bring a few mid/high clouds. Broad polar troughing over
SE Canada will help push a backdoor cold front southward through the
Mid Atlantic region, most likely dropping through northern or NE NC
Wed, propelled by a cold high centered over the St Lawrence nosing
southward while drifting eastward. As such, Wed may be a bit cooler
with some low cloudiness across our NE and far N, however models
have a tough time resolving this kind of detail at this range. Will
hint at slightly cooler temps Wed in the NE and far N with some
clouds esp along and NE of the frontal zone. Latest models suggest
that as WAA aloft ramps up Wed night ahead of a shortwave trough
moving from TX/OK through the lower Miss Valley, this front will
weaken and lift back N and NW Wed, possible stalling briefly over
the NW Piedmont into Thu morning as a stable wedge establishes over
the Triad region. Highs in the 70s except some upper 60s NE. Lows in
the 40s.

Thu-Fri: Considerable clouds with patchy light precip possible
Thu/Thu night, dry/warm Fri. The shortwave trough over the lower
Miss Valley early Thu is expected to weaken/open as it moves
eastward over the Southeast states and Carolinas through Thu night.
The weakening surface wedge front should finally succumb to the WAA
aloft and dissipate, although mid and high clouds are likely ahead
of and with the dampening shortwave trough, which could help retain
the cooler and more stable air longer on Thu. Fri should have
decreasing clouds as mid-upper ridging builds over and off the East
Coast, resulting in rising heights and thicknesses, and a few
showers can`t be ruled out Fri with the potential for deep mixing.
Overall, though, precip chances look small, and will omit any
mentioned pops for now. Expect highs in the 70s both day, with some
around-80 readings Fri. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s Thu night
and 50s Fri night.

Sat-Sun: Warm with a few showers Sat, followed by a high chance of
storms Sun, some potentially strong. Deep longwave troughing over
the W CONUS Thu will shift E into the Front Range/Plains Fri, with
one embedded deep low swinging N into the Midwest Fri into Sat,
followed by additional energy diving through TX, shifting the trough
into the Miss Valley Sat night. Models and ensemble systems are in
pretty good agreement over E NOAM with the presence and rough
location of this longwave trough, although they differ a bit with
amplitude, timing, and tilt. Sat should be quite warm and blustery
with strong and deep surface-based WAA and increasing PW, supporting
the potential for a few showers, mainly W. The corresponding surface
cold front is expected to arrive Sun, bringing falling heights aloft
and possible showers and strong storms amid strong kinematics
yielding long and curved hodographs, although the threat of
strong/severe convection will largely depend on when the front
arrives and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization (if any).
Expect highs in the 70s to low 80s Sat and 70s Sun, and lows Sat
night in the upper 50s to low 60s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
tonight. Mid and high clouds have briefly thinned out for much of
the region, but they will return later this afternoon and this
evening. While some light radar returns will be possible, no
precipitation is expected to reach the ground due to a dry and deep
sub-cloud layer. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower overnight
tonight as low pressure approaches from the south, with rain and low
VFR ceilings beginning to move into our far southern counties
(including FAY) around 09z-12z Monday. The rain will get steadier
and heavier around FAY by late morning and early afternoon, when
MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected there. IFR can`t be
totally ruled out, but at this time it looks most likely to occur
after the end of the TAF period. Farther north, light rain could
make it to our northern TAF sites by 15z-18z Monday, with a better
chance at RDU and RWI than the Triad sites, but conditions should
stay VFR through 18z. Winds will be light and variable through
tonight, becoming NE and increasing to 5-10 kts tomorrow morning,
highest in the SE.

Looking beyond 18Z Monday: Light to moderate rain will persist on
Monday afternoon from a coastal low. There is still some uncertainty
on how far NW the precip shield and associated sub-VFR ceilings will
make it, but a period of MVFR is possible at RDU and RWI, while INT
and GSO should stay VFR and could stay mainly dry. At FAY there is
high confidence in MVFR, and a period of IFR can`t be totally ruled
out. VFR and dry weather will return on Monday evening from NW to SE
as the coastal low exits. NE winds gusting to 15-25 kts will be
possible Monday afternoon as well especially at KFAY. Dry VFR
conditions will follow from Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Danco