126
FXUS62 KRAH 040455
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the
north through mid week, although a series of upper level
disturbances moving over the region will bring increasingly wet and
unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

* Another cool night ahead

Central NC will remain under the influence of a cool, dry air sfc
ridge, while an area of low pressure system off the NC coast
continues to drift slowly east, moving further offshore.

Daytime mixing has lowered surface dewpoints into the lower into the
mid to upper 50s across much of the area, bringing very comfortable
humidity levels as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

A persistent broken deck of stratocumulus clouds across the far
western/northwestern Piedmont is expected to scatter out during the
late afternoon and evening. Until then, a stray shower or sprinkle
can`t be completed ruled out. Intermittent NELY gustiness of 15 to
20 mph will diminish as the sun starts to set.

Tonight, mostly clear skies and the dry air will set the stage for
another cool night across central NC. Overnight lows will fall into
the 55-60 range across the north, to 60-65 across the south---about
4-8 degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Ontario will move east
into Quebec on Monday and Monday night, with associated ridging
extending from New England down the lee of the Appalachians, setting
up cool NE flow and a CAD type regime over the southern Mid-
Atlantic. In the mid and upper levels, a trough over the lower MS
Valley will slowly move east, as ridging strengthens off the
Southeast US coast. This will turn the flow from WSW to a more moist
SW direction late Monday, with below-normal PW values giving way to
near and above normal PW values (1.5-2+ inches) across much of
central NC on Monday night.

The above pattern will bring increasing mid and high clouds on
Monday and Monday night, especially across the west. Other than a
slight chance of a shower in the far SW, weather conditions during
the day Monday will be dry and pleasant, with below-normal
temperatures. Highs will be in the lower-to-mid-80s, and the
forecast again lowers dew points below NBM, mixing them out into the
50s in the afternoon everywhere but the far SE, as is already
happening today.

Model guidance depicts a good signal for some rain spreading north
into western and parts of central NC on Monday evening and Monday
night. The deterministic GFS is the one exception as it keeps our
region largely dry, but it is an outlier as all high-res models and
even a good number of its own ensembles have some precipitation.
Meanwhile the deterministic ECMWF is wet for our entire area, an
outlier on the other end. So leaned toward the compromise solution
the high-res models generally depict, with POPs increasing to chance
over the western Piedmont on Monday night, and no POPs in the east.
Given the rain this far north should be primarily isentropic lift
driven with very little if any instability, any amounts through 12z
Tuesday will be light, around a tenth to quarter inch at most based
on the 12z HREF. The cloud cover will keep low temperatures milder
than previous nights and close to normal, ranging from lower-60s in
the far NE (where it will be clearer) to mid-to-upper-60s elsewhere.

&&.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Monday...

The two primary surface features in the extended forecast will
remain nearly steady-state through the middle of the week into the
weekend. The first is the front that moved through North Carolina
Friday which has become a stationary front across northern Florida,
while the second is high pressure over southeastern Canada and the
northeastern United States. An upper trough which will be over the
Appalachian Mountains Wednesday and Thursday will eventually
dissipate, but around that time, the eastern edge of the surface
front will eventually rotate west towards the Carolinas coastline,
with a weak low possibly developing. The result will be diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms, although soundings indicate that
instability for thunderstorms will be minimal during the first part
of the extended forecast.

High temperatures will be below normal through the period as a
result of persistent northeast winds. Wednesday is the coolest day
in the extended forecast, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in
the Triad to the upper 80s in southeastern counties. Depending on
the strength of the high pressure to the north and whether a cold
air damming wedge is able to continue into Wednesday, those forecast
highs could be 3-5 degrees too warm from the Triangle to the west.
Highs should generally be in the 80s through the rest of the period -
 any readings in the 90s would be isolated. Lows will be in the 60s
and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 735 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist through early Mon evening. Sct
clouds based at 3500-7000 ft AGL and sct-bkn mid and high clouds are
expected areawide, esp this evening, and patches of very light rain
have moved into the far W Piedmont S of INT/GSO. But this rain is
falling from high cloud bases, is not producing any vsby
restrictions, and is expected to dwindle and dissipate by 06z.
Surface winds will be under 10 kts mainly from the NE, shifting a
bit to be from the ENE Mon.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, VFR are likely to dominate through at least
Tue. SW areas (mainly S and W of our TAF sites) may see a few sub-
VFR clouds early Tue morning, and a little light rain is possible in
the S amd W, near INT/GSO/FAY, Tue afternoon. Rain chances will rise
for Wed through Fri, mainly mid afternoon through mid evening, but
confidence in the details is not high. Early-morning sub-VFR cigs
are possible early Thu and Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield