686
FXUS62 KRAH 280637
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
237 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered across our region will slip offshore
this afternoon. A weak surface trough will drop south across the
region late tonight and early Friday. A dry cold front will move
south across the mid-Atlantic on Friday night and early Saturday and
then stall across Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

* Considerable high cloudiness this morning will thin during the
  afternoon.
* Highs will range between 3 and 7 degrees below average.

The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure centered
over the central Appalachians with sub 60 degree dew points across
just about all of NC. A general troughing pattern is noted across
the eastern CONUS with a corridor of slightly enhanced mid level
flow at about 35kts extending from the western OH Valley into the
Carolinas. Multiple disturbances are noted in the flow aloft
including one centered near WV and another across WI early this
morning. The airmass across central NC is dry with PW values around
0.6 to 0.9 inches which is about 40-60% of normal.

Fair weather is expected today although the bright sunshine on
Wednesday will be muted by a good deal of mainly high clouds
streaming across the region today. The cirrus clouds may experience
a little orographic enhancement this morning. The result will
be mostly cloudy skies this morning with the thickest clouds
across the west and southwest. The high clouds will mix with mid
clouds at times as well. Expect the mid and high clouds to thin
a bit from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with the
potential for a pretty sunset with some red hues shading the
high clouds. Afternoon dew points will drop into the lower 50s,
not quite as dry as Wednesday but still pleasant. Morning low
level thickness values of 1275 to 1285m should result in highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Patches of mid and high clouds are expected this evening. These
clouds will be driven by a disturbance aloft that will move off
the coast late tonight allow for some clearing in central NC
overnight. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower
60s. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

* Sunnier skies and warmer conditions are expected on
  Friday.

Another fair weather day is expected on Friday as a disturbance
aloft moves offshore and a drier and more subsident pattern
arrives. There should be a lot more sunshine and fewer clouds
during the day compared to Thursday. Highs will range in the
lower to mid 80s, generally within a couple of degrees of
average. Afternoon dew points may mix out a bit more than on
Thursday resulting in RH values dropping into the 30s.

A dry cold front across the mid atlantic will drop south across
WV and VA on Friday night. In addition, another disturbance
aloft will approach from the west and northwest. The result will
be an increase in mainly high clouds on Friday night. With the
front nearby and some stirring of the wind along with a milder
air mass, lows will be a little warmer than previous nights and
range in the lower to mid 60s. -Blaes
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...

* The period of below normal temperatures continues.

Aloft, a longwave trough will sit over the eastern US, with a series
of embedded s/w disturbances moving through it, tracking across the
region through the period. At the surface, high pressure over the OH
Valley on Sat will track ewd across the mid-Atlantic and into the
Northeast US through Mon night/Tue, possibly ridging swd into the
area by Mon. Meanwhile, while model timing and strength varies, an
area of low pressure may develop/track ewd along the nrn Gulf/Gulf
Coast, then continue across FL before lifting newd off the East
Coast through the middle of the week. While the forecast remains
mostly dry, cannot rule out some showers with the passing s/w
disturbances aloft and possibly with the low off the coast depending
how close it gets. The GFS is largely dry, with the exception of
Sun, but the EC is a bit wetter. Highest chances for showers is Sun
aft/eve. As for temperatures, Sat will be the warmest day, with
highs ranging from upper 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging from upper
50s north to mid 60s south. Temperatures should remain below normal
through mid-week, with the coolest period Mon through Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions and fair weather will prevail across central NC
during the 24 hour TAF period as a couple of weak weather systems
bring periods and patches of mainly mid and high clouds. Mid and
high level moisture enhanced by a pair of upper air disturbance will
spread widespread high cirrus clouds across the region for this
morning and early afternoon followed by some clearing late this
afternoon and evening with another area of high clouds late tonight.
A couple of intervals of mid clouds are possible this afternoon and
evening. With any CIGs at or above 6kft, VFR conditions are
expected.

Very light to calm winds this morning will become light northeast to
southeasterly this morning at less than 5kts. Winds will become
light south to southwest at 4 to 7kts this afternoon and then light
and variable at less than 5 kts tonight.

Looking beyond 06Z Friday: Generally fair weather and VFR conditions
are expected through late Saturday. The stalled front to our south
may nudge north with a possible surface wave developing on the front
on Sunday. This will result in an increase in moisture and a small
chance of rain and perhaps some sub-VFR ceilings during Sunday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the south and southeast.
Otherwise, fair weather is expected into early next week. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Blaes