316
FXUS62 KRAH 121858
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
256 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track slowly along the coast of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic through tonight and early Monday. High pressure will
bring drier conditions by Monday afternoon through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 128 PM Sunday...

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted two mid-level lows: one
situated over GA/SC and another over PA/NY. At the sfc, the center
of the low was located off the Wilmington/Surf City/Topsail Island
coastline. SB/ML CAPE continues to be confined to the coastal areas,
as central NC remains stable. As such, we continue to just see light
rain and/or drizzle across central NC.  As we progress into the late
afternoon/early night period, expect the sfc low to scoot east-
northeast and further offshore. During this transition, additional
light rain/drizzle is expected to persist through the overnight
period.  Some high-res guidance is suggesting the potential for a
few hours of moderate rain in the far southern Coastal Plain.
However, given how little to no CAPE is expected, think the chances
for higher totals would be limited. There is however deeper moisture
in that vicinity, so it`s worth at least mentioning.

Otherwise, expect nnely gustiness to persist through much of the
rest of today and into the overnight period. Gusts will continue to
be highest in the southern Coastal Plain (already seen a few high 30
mph gusts in this vicinity). Gusts should subside into the mid teens
to lower 20s after ~06Z or so.   Additionally, patchy fog will
likely develop area-wide, perhaps a bit more dense in the Coastal
Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM Sunday...

The area of low pressure over eastern portions of the Carolinas will
drift slowly east away from the coast, while a second low over the
Northeast US dives south through the mid-Atlantic states.

Weakening frontogenetic forcing and continued low-level saturation
may support areas of patchy drizzle across eastern portions of the
forecast area Monday morning. Otherwise, most of the day should
remain dry. Low-level saturation beneath a strong mid-level CAP will
likely be slow to erode , despite the onset of dry air advection on
the back-side of the departing low.

The evolution of low-level cloud cover and it`s associated impacts
on afternoon temperatures will be the forecast challenge of the day.
Expect a sharp west-east gradient in afternoon high temperatures
ranging from lower to mid 70s over the western Piedmont, where some
partial sunshine is possible, to lower 60s northeast where stubborn
stratus is expected to persist. Breezy will perist with NELY gusts
20 to 25 mph.

By Monday night, the aforementioned secondary upper low will move
into the area, bringing renewed saturation and weak lift. This will
mainly result in continued/increasing cloud cover across the area,
though a few light showers cannot be ruled out across the northern
coastal plain late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Lows will
range in the 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

* Dry Tuesday through Saturday.
* Chilly overnight temperatures Thurs/Fri night.
* Chance of precip returns early next week.

As the upper level low off the coast continues to shift east, a
large upper level ridge will build across the Central Plains. By
Saturday, the ridge axis is expected to be over the eastern US.

At the surface, a cold Canadian a high pressure will slowly shift
from Minnesota over the Great Lakes before extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. As the dry cold front passes through
the region Thursday expect breezy conditions Tues-Thurs, especially
eastern portions of central NC. Temperatures will generally be in
the mid to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday then becoming much cooler
Thursday into Friday with highs in the 60s to near 70. After the
cold front passes through, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s
 to low 40s Thursday night then gradually warming overnight lows
into the low/mid 50s as the surface high shifts across and east of
the region late week. Longer range models show another deep surface
trough developing across the MS valley by Sunday which could hold
together and bring the next chance of precip to our region Sunday
into Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 128 PM Sunday...

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities persist across central NC
terminals this afternoon as the coastal low spins off the Wilmington
coastline. Expect conditions to stay socked in through the entire 24
hr TAF period except possibly later Monday morning at KINT/KGSO
which may lift to VFR. Periods of light rain and drizzle will be
possible through the 24 hr TAF period as well. Eastern TAF sites may
drop to LIFR overnight, but otherwise expect IFR conditions to
persist at all terminals.  Otherwise, expect nely sfc gusts to
continue, with 30 to 35 kt gusts possible at KFAY/KRWI through early
this evening. Winds will weaken a bit overnight before picking back
up into the low to mid 20s kts range mid-Monday morning.

Outlook: The low will move offshore through Tuesday morning, behind
which drier air should clear out the sub-VFR cloudiness late Monday
night. VFR conditions will then persist through the rest of the
extended as high pressure settles down the east coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...NTL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...NTL