762
FXUS62 KRAH 180653
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak back-door cold front will slip south into the area Monday
into Tuesday, followed by surface high pressure ridging southward
into the region as Hurricane Erin passes well offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 249 AM Monday...

Regional mosaic radar depicted a convective cluster moving southeast
into the southern Chesapeake and areas of south-central VA this
morning. This convection was largely triggered by weak mid-level
impulses embedded within an exiting short-wave centered over the Mid-
Atlantic Coast. These showers and storms should largely stay
northeast of our area, however can`t fully rule out an isolated
shower over our far northeastern areas through sunrise. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions to persist with isolated patchy fog possible
through sunrise this morning.

For the rest of today, we`ll see sly flow warm temps into the upper
80s/lower 90s this afternoon. By later today, a sfc backdoor cold
front will slide south from VA into central NC. Associated sfc
forcing in conjunction with mid-level impulses should generate
scattered convection this afternoon and evening. The latest CAMs and
HREF mean output suggest highest POPs will generally focus along and
east of US-1. However, convection over the mountains/foothills could
trickle into our western areas as well this afternoon.  Forecast
soundings indicate weak mean cloud layer flow, PWAT > 2 inches, and
tall and skinny CAPE profiles in the featured along and east of US-1
vicinity.  Additionally, the latest 00Z HREF probabilities of
exceeding 1 and 3 hrly FFG values peak in the 25 to 35 % in these
areas (the last few runs of the HREF 6 hrly LPMM also shows a signal
for isolated pockets of 2 to 4 inches somewhere in the Coastal
Plain).  A such, the concern today would be the potential for
isolated flash flooding especially over urban areas from slow-moving
storms.

Convection should largely diminish with loss of heating early
tonight.  Otherwise, stratus is expected to expand across all of
central NC tonight which should contribute to warm overnight lows
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 AM Monday...

Generally weak flow aloft is expected Tuesday out ahead of Hurricane
Erin`s turn north.  At the sfc, Monday evening`s cold front will sag
somewhere close to the NC/SC border.  Sfc flow should largely remain
nnely via the strengthening gradient between the strong high off the
New England coast and Erin off the Carolina coast.  This should
promote periods of cloudiness and perhaps a bit cooler temperatures
with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Guidance is bearish on mid/upper forcing and anomalous moisture over
central NC through Wednesday morning. However, CAMs do generate at
least some convection along sea/sound breezes which may trickle into
our Coastal Plain Tuesday afternoon and evening. Additionally, given
the proximity of the lingering front (and maybe some very weak,
southward sagging mid-level impulses), can`t rule out isolated
convection area-wide Tuesday afternoon and evening. Regardless, as
was previously mentioned, PWAT should be near-normal and as such
don`t think there is much concern for flash flooding compared to
Monday. Convection should largely diminish with loss of heating
early Tuesday night. Warm overnight lows around 70 are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

By Wednesday morning Hurricane Erin will be curving north, not too
far off the Mid-Atlantic coast. For now, no immediate impacts are
expected for Central NC. However, rough surf and strong rip currents
will be present along the entire Mid-Atlantic coast Wed-Thurs, and
beach goers should be aware of the dangerous conditions. Central NC
will be sandwiched in between the incoming frontal boundary to the
NW and the hurricane offshore, thus  kept around 20% PoPs for
Wednesday afternoon across the NW and Coastal Plain as lingering
showers and storms could develop. As the hurricane passes NC and
drifts off to the NE late Thursday into Friday, a weak surface front
will move across the region and eventually washout. PoPs increase
Thursday afternoon into Friday with higher chances in the NW
Piedmont (30-40%) and lower across the Southeast (20%). As high
pressure shifts off the DELMARVA coast Saturday, a frontal boundary
to the south will begin to lift north across the region bringing
continual rain chances Friday through Sun with higher PoPs (40-50%)
in the afternoon/early evening.  Fri-Sun Temperatures will be 5 to 6
degrees below average with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 249 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected for much of the 24 hour TAF period.
However, scattered convection is likely to develop along the I-95
corridor later this afternoon and evening. As such, can`t rule out
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions especially at KRWI/KFAY where
confidence in convection is highest.  Additional convection may
develop over the mountains and foothills and trickle into our
Piedmont later today. However confidence in convection impacting
KINT/KGSO/KRDU is too low to include any mention of thunder and
associated sub-VFR conditions at this time.

Any lingering convection should largely diminish with loss of
heating tonight.

Beyond 06Z Tuesday: There is a good signal that MVFR/IFR stratus
will follow a post-frontal nely surge and expand across central NC
late tonight through early Tuesday afternoon. Unsettled weather and
periods of adverse aviation conditions will continue Wednesday into
the weekend ahead of and along a sfc cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM..CA
AVIATION...Luchetti