560
FXUS62 KRAH 101832
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through
today, then shift offshore tonight and Saturday. Low pressure will
develop near the SE coast today and move north along the NC
coast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 AM Friday...

Increasing clouds with rain chances increasing late tonight (SE).

A large Canadian high pressure (1033+ mb) will continue to extend
down the eastern seaboard into NC today and tonight, even as the
core of the high shifts off the New England coast. Cloudiness will
increase especially this afternoon and tonight as low pressure
develops off the FL coast. There is a chance of rain late tonight,
mainly in the SE. However, rainfall will be very light to start.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows tonight in the 50s to near 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 AM Friday...

Cool and cloudy.

Periods of rain, especially over eastern into central NC Saturday
and Saturday night.

Breezy in the east. NE winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

The latest hi-res models forecast more rainfall westward into central
NC Saturday and Saturday night. This trend has been noted for a
a couple of runs. We have raised POP into the eastern Piedmont, with
periods of rain expected into this region. There is a chance of rain
in the western Piedmont.

QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 can be expected into the eastern Piedmont, with
1-2 inches east of Interstate 95. Due to the very dry conditions and
the fact that rainfall rates are not currently expected to be
high at this time, flooding is not anticipated.

NE winds will be gusty, especially in the east Saturday into
Saturday night. NE winds to 25-30 mph can be expected. Winds
will be 10-20 in the west.

Highs will be cool, aided by the clouds and rain. Expect mainly
60s. Lows will not be much lower than Saturday highs. Expect
mainly upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

* A coastal low will linger over the region Sunday and potentially
  into Monday, bringing continued rain and gusty conditions.

* Continued warming trend until late next week.

Model guidance is showing the coastal low, or potentially a pair of
coastal lows, making the closest approach to the Outer Banks Sunday
into Monday. Although there is still some uncertainty, light rain is
still expected to continue throughout the day and overnight on
Sunday. Some pockets of heavier rain could still be possible on
Sunday depending on the location and strength of the low. Models
differ in how fast the low will exit the region, leaving some
uncertainty with how long into Monday light rain will continue, with
the best chance for continued rain in the northeast. Overall, less
than 0.5 inches of additional rain is expected on Sunday and Monday,
with Saturday having the best potential for the heaviest rainfall
with the system. Sunday into Monday morning also has the potential
to be gusty as the system makes its closest approach to central NC,
with gusts around 25 to 30 mph possible.

After the coastal low moves further northeast out of the region,
ridging should start to spread eastward. This will allow
temperatures to rise to slightly above normal by mid-week. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday
and increase to the 70s by Wednesday before another slight cool down
is possible Thursday and Friday. Lows should be in the 50s to low
60s each night until cooling to the 40s on Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 147 PM Friday...

Multi-layered cloudiness continues to spill across central NC
upstream of a developing coastal low.  VFR conditions should prevail
through much of the early 24 hour TAF period. However, a surge of
low-level moisture should drop terminals to MVFR/IFR ceilings as
early as ~09Z at KFAY/KRWI, ~12Z at KRDU, and closer to ~18Z at
KINT/KGSO.  Associated light rain will promote some reduced
visibilities at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI as well. KINT/KGSO should largely
remain dry until after the 24 hr TAF period. Otherwise, expect nely
gusts of 15 to 20 kts to persist this afternoon before dropping off
a bit overnight (although still stay mixed). Winds will pick back up
Saturday morning gusting at times 25 to 30 kts at KFAY/KRWI late
Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Beyond 18Z Saturday: Guidance has come into better agreement pushing
steadier rain into all of central NC Saturday afternoon, evening,
and into the overnight period.  As such, expect periods of LIFR
conditions especially at KFAY/KRWI where heaviest rain appears
possible.  The low will slowly migrate northward Sunday into Monday.
As such, expect periods of rain and sub-VFR conditions to persist
through Monday morning.  Additionally, periods of LLWS may be
possible Saturday night at KFAY/KRWI. Strong nely gusts may
redevelop (30+ kts) at KFAY Sunday morning depending on the eventual
track of the low.  Beyond early Monday, expect high pressure and VFR
conditions to return through the remainder of the extended period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...NTL