611
FXUS62 KRAH 300746
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track east across the region today, then move
just offshore tonight. A moist NE flow will develop tonight and
continue Tuesday. A cold front will finally push east across the
region mid-week, bringing clearing skies and lower humidities.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly
this afternoon and early evening.

The mid/upper low over eastern KY/WVA will slowly drift ENE today
and tonight and gradually weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region
tonight. At the surface, weak low pressure will be over south-
central NC  today, gradually shifting to the east to the coast
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially
this afternoon into the evening, with numerous showers/scattered
thunderstorms over the northern and eastern sections (north of the
track of the weak wave). QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 can be expected, with
locally up to 1 to 1.5 inches especially north and east of Raleigh.
This is supported by the latest CAM`s solutions. Some mostly minor
flooding will be possible, especially in urban and poor drainage
areas. Highs in the 70s northeast ranging into the 80s south today.
The flow will become more NNE overnight as the low pressure shifts
east of the region. Low stratus and fog are expected overnight in
the continued very moist atmosphere. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

Low overcast conditions expected Tuesday with a chance of light rain.

The mid/upper low will become a weakening lingering trough across
the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Low pressure will be along the coast with a continued moist
and more stable NNE flow into central NC. Low stratus and fog will
likely persist well into the day Tuesday. There is a chance of some
light rain and drizzle, but the threat of heavy rain will be along
the coast. Highs should range from the lower 70s north into the
lower 80s south. Expect cloudy skies Tuesday night with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

There continues to be good consensus that nwly flow aloft will
spread across central NC Wednesday as anoamlous moisture slowly
eases offshore through Thursday morning. At the sfc, a weak and dry
cold front will pass through Wednesday night. Dry and near to
slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s; lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s) will result Wednesday and
Thursday.

From Thursday onward, latest ensemble guidance does seem to be in a
bit better agreement in potentially shunting deep moisture
associated with another potential Gulf system to our south. However,
some outliers do still bring a system up into our area late this
weekend (albeit considerably weaker compared to Helene). For now,
will go with consensus and maintain a dry forecast Thursday through
Sunday, but will continue to monitor. Temperatures should remain in
the upper 70s to lower 80s through Saturday, and perhaps a bit
cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: A period of IFR to LIFR cigs and possibly some
LIFR fog appears likely at most sites between 09z and 12z.
Otherwise, expect the cigs to lift to MVFR to VFR this afternoon.
Scattered showers are expected, especially north and east of FAY.

Outlook: Scattered showers may persist across the north Mon
night, with additional showers/storms possible again through Tuesday
aft/eve. Thereafter, the forecast should be dry through the rest of
the extended period. Early morning fog/low stratus will be possible
each morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett/KC