316
FXUS62 KRAH 221805
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the north today and push southward
through North Carolina tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will
build in from the north Sunday and Monday, then move off the Mid
Atlantic coast Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 156 AM Saturday...

The warm front continues to slowly creep northward into the central
Piedmont/Coastal Plain this morning.  Areas north of the front
continue to see obs with reduced visibilities from fog. Latest
guidance suggests the front should clear the NC/VA border through
sunrise this morning. As such, expecting the fog to largely clear
from south to north the next several hours. Will monitor
observational trends, but the Dense Fog Advisory will likely be
cleared earlier than previously thought.

Aloft, a few weak vorticity perturbations are generating light rain
to our north in VA, and along the NC/SC border this morning. Further
southwest, a bit steadier rain is moving over the north-central
Piedmont of SC. Expect some of this activity to advect east across
the NC/SC border through a bit after sunrise, but generally diminish
with eastward extend this morning.  By mid-morning, swly sfc flow
will pick up a bit with gusts up to 20 mph at times (highest south
and east of Raleigh). High temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s
this afternoon with partial clearing likely.

The main upper short-wave expected to pass over us later today is
currently sliding into the Ohio Valley.  This feature, and
associated weak mid-level height falls will generate isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers and storms for portions of our area
today.  Latest CAMs have backed off on coverage some, but best
chances still appear across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain mid-
afternoon and translating south across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain late afternoon/early evening. Dew points will reach
the lower to mid 60s across the NC/SC border, which should promote
some instability and probably best storm chances in that vicinity.
Shear will be potent, and could lead to some organization. However,
lapse rates aren`t overly impressive and as such think any severe
threat would be low at this point.

Any lingering convection should move south of our area by early
tonight. Wnwly flow will usher in dry air behind the passing cold
front tonight, but the colder air will lag a bit, promoting
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 AM Saturday...

PWAT drops to 50 to 75% of normal under dry nwly flow on Sunday as
mid-level ridging moves into the southeast. Expect dry and cool
weather with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday afternoon.  Clear
and calm conditions with high pressure overhead Sunday night should
promote good radiational cooling potential. Expect lows to dip into
the mid to upper 30s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

* Quiet and seasonable Mon, then unsettled Tue through Wed night,
  although no significant hazards are currently expected.

* Dry and colder Thu through Sat.

Mon/Mon night: Mild continental surface high pressure centered to
our N Mon morning will push E and offshore through Mon evening,
while slowly flattening mid level ridging shifts from the Gulf/Mid
South E into the Southeast US. High clouds will gradually increase
Mon, esp over the NW, as our upper level flow accelerates from the
SW. And with the low level flow becoming more SE and S yielding
increasing moist upglide at around 290-300K over the Piedmont Mon
night, lower level clouds will also increase Mon night, again mainly
over the NW half. Low level thicknesses will be just slightly above
normal Mon with decent insolation early in the day, supporting highs
in the 60s to near 70, followed by lows Mon night in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed night: This period is still likely to be somewhat active,
and models are coming into better agreement on timing of the
incoming mid level trough and surface cold front. The surface high
pushing further out over the NW Atlantic will put NC in a deepening
return flow pattern, with falling heights aloft as the mid level
ridge flattens and pushes off the Southeast coast, in response to a
trough digging over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Looking at the
ensemble cluster analysis, the variation among members can be
explained by differences in both timing and amplitude of this trough
and the upstream ridge, although these differences have decreased
from yesterday`s runs. The most likely time of cold front passage is
Wed evening or early overnight, although there remains a decent
spread of several hours either side of this timing. Will retain
above-climo pops through this period, although it likely won`t be
raining this entire time. It appears that the better pops will be
focused Tue night, highest in the NW where jet-induced upper
divergence is projected to be maximized. There still appears to be
chance for at least isolated prefrontal thunderstorms Wed, with
somewhat low CAPE (mean SBCAPE of just 200-400 J/kg) but high deep-
layer bulk shear with long and generally straight hodographs, so we
could get a storm with strong winds and/or small hail, esp along and
E of Hwy 1 where surface dewpoints and CAPE should be greater.
Expect highs Tue in the lower 60s NW (with greater cloud cover and
the potential for a rain-induced stable pool) ranging to low-mid 70s
elsewhere. Wed highs should be mostly in the 70s.

Thu-Sat: We may see some lingering clouds E Thanksgiving morning,
but otherwise expect increasing sunshine, with fair, dry, and cool
conditions through Sat as the mid level trough shifts over E NOAM.
Despite the abundant sunshine, since the incoming surface high will
be of Canadian/Arctic origin, the CAA will keep temps below normal,
esp Fri through Sat as the surface high settles overhead and just to
our N. Expect highs in the 50s Thanksgiving Day (about 5 degrees
below normal) and upper 40s to mid 50s Fri/Sat (about 6-12 degrees
below normal), with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s Thu night and
in the 20s Fri night. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

TAF period: No restrictions are currently expected at INT/GSO
through the next 24 hours. An outflow boundary moving through this
afternoon will veer the wind to the northwest, but it appears that
any sprinkles that would have occurred have already moved across the
terminals. Cannot rule out a brief low ceiling overnight, but this
appears unlikely.

Farther to the east, the forecast is more complicated. The line of
showers has yet to move through these terminals. At this point it
appears that FAY will likely not have any precipitation from this
line, but have kept the PROB30 group in at RDU (where thunderstorms
appear unlikely) and RWI (where greater instability could result in
a thunderstorm). Again, the winds will veer to the northwest with
the outflow boundary, but models are now showing a greater amount of
low-level moisture overnight. While the previous set of TAFs
mentioned fog restrictions, think that the wind remaining around 5
kt will limit the fog potential, and have instead gone with stratus
in the forecast. This should persist from late this evening past
sunrise on Sunday, with conditions then scattering out.

Outlook: The primary chance of rain in the extended forecast will
come between Tuesday and Wednesday night, with the best chance of
rain and restrictions coming Tuesday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green