


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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478 FXUS62 KRAH 181701 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night, followed by high pressure settling back into the area Monday and Tuesday. A dry cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, with cool high pressure settling in late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM Saturday... * Quiet weather through tonight High pressure shifts offshore tonight, ahead of a cold front moving into the TN/OH valley early Sun as an area of low pressure tracks into the lower Great Lakes. Southerly winds will remain stirred tonight around 5-10 mph, keeping temperatures mild in the mid to upper 50s, except some lower 50s over the Coastal Plain where winds may decouple. Middle and high clouds will be on the increase overnight, especially across the west, ahead of a vigorous upper trough that will reach the MS/TN valley region Sun morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM Saturday... * A band of showers with embedded isolated thunder will move through during the early to late evening hours, capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts * Gradient winds of 25-25 mph are expected during the day outside of showers * Post cold frontal gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible, diminishing by early Mon morning A vigorous upper trough will track through the region Sunday evening and Sunday night. The center of the shortwave will track from the lower OH/TN valley region into the southern Appalachians and portions of north-central NC and central VA before reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by Mon morning. Impressive height falls of 80- 150 dm will accompany the trough, along with an anomalous upper jet streak of 90-100 kt SW to NE. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to move through from west to east during the late evening to early overnight hours as low pressure tracks into Canada. As we have been advertising for the past several days, a tight pressure gradient coupled to strong winds in the 925-850 mb layer of 30-45 kt will promote gradient winds of 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. These winds should be below wind advisory criteria, but we will have to monitor showers capable of producing strong to locally damaging gusts, as we will discuss next. Highs should top out in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots near 80. The one exception will be over the NW Piedmont, with highs in the low 70s due to cloud cover and some pre-frontal showers. For shower chances along and ahead of the front, nearly all ensemble data, including several CAM members, show measurable precipitation over most of central NC, with highest amounts in the NW Piedmont closer to the shortwave trough and deeper forcing. Amounts range from about a quarter of an inch in the NW, around a tenth of an inch in the Triangle, and a tenth of an inch or less over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. PW values are near 180-percent of normal around 1.5 inches. A weak area of pre-frontal showers may move through over the Piedmont during the late afternoon to early evening hours, but is expected to be weak in nature. The more potentially impactful period will be just immediately ahead of the cold front, when a band of showers with embedded isolated thunder will track east-northeast. Timing for this looks to be during the mid-evening (6-9p) in the Triad to late evening in the Triangle (9p-12a) and early overnight hours in the Coastal Plain, though could be a tad earlier or later given some HREF model spread. SPC has introduced a marginal risk of damaging wind gusts mainly along/north of US-64, in line with several AI severe diagnostics. This appears to be mainly driven by very impressive low to deep-layer shear, with 20 kt of 0-1 km shear, 40 kt of 0-3 km shear, and 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear. Instability remains the limiting factor, with guidance suggesting a stripe of 250-500 J/kg of CAPE along the front. Even in the absence of instability, the strong forcing and increasing LLJ of 50 kt at 850 mb should favor some gusts mixing down to the surface via the showers. This has been suggested by the last few runs of the HRRR, where 35-45+ kts are possible along the frontal line. Scattered showers should exit all of central NC by the early overnight hours, though post-frontal CAA gusts of 30-35 mph will still be possible. Lows will be cooler in the mid 40s NW to low 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... * Another mostly dry front will keep the region seasonably cool. By Monday morning, the cold front will be out over the Atlantic Ocean with high pressure centered over the southeastern United States. The influence of the high will be relatively short-lived as low pressure will race across the United States-Canadian border during the first half of the week, bringing a second cold front through the area Tuesday evening. It`s hard to find a deterministic model showing any precipitation with the Tuesday front - the 00Z European shows rain limited to the North Carolina coastline. Meanwhile, the European ensemble does hint at the possibility of showers primarily north and east of Raleigh. The current forecast have the chance of rain as less than 10 percent. Once the next front pushes offshore, another high pressure system will move across the southeastern US, and this should persist into the weekend. Normal temperatures for late October are low 70s and high 40s. While Tuesday should have highs a few degrees above normal, the rest of the extended forecast should have highs slightly below normal. Similarly, Tuesday night`s lows should be slightly above normal, with the rest of the extended forecast slightly cooler than normal. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... VFR conditions with light southwesterly winds through this evening then becoming southerly overnight into Sunday morning. Winds are expected to pick up ahead of the cold front mid morning Sunday with gutsy winds of 20-30kts through the 18z TAF period. The main weather restrictions will come after 18z Sun, thus did not introduce any flight restrictions with this 18z/Sat TAF. Outlook: Ahead of an approaching cold front, southwesterly winds will increase with gusts to 25-35 kts beginning Sunday afternoon. A band of low VFR to MVFR ceilings and showers will likely accompany the front. VFR conditions will return on Monday and continue through midweek, with breezy conditions again possible Tuesday and Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...CA/BLS