136
FXUS62 KRAH 101024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Milton will pass by well to our south and southeast
through today. Cool high pressure will build overhead from the
northwest today through Friday, then drift southward and settle over
the Southeast states over the weekend. A strong but dry cold front
will push southeastward through the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 313 AM Thursday...

Our weather remains relatively tranquil compared to what FL is
enduring, as tropical cyclone Milton crosses the central portion of
the peninsula. Milton is currently starting to emerge off the
eastern FL coast and is projected to continue pushing further off
the coast on an ENE to E motion as a post-tropical cyclone through
the weekend. For NC, the high level cloud shield acting as a storm
exhaust continues to spread over the central and eastern Carolinas,
but this cloud deck is on track to exit our area W to E through
early this afternoon within dry NW flow aloft. This will leave
generally clear skies over our area for the rest of the day and
through tonight, as surface high pressure now centered over lower MI
builds SSE into our region, and very low PWs analyzed over the
eastern Great Lakes through the central Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic region spreads southward over the Carolinas. Low level
thicknesses are expected to be about 20 m below normal today, and
with the early-day clouds to delay heating, expect highs about 1-2
categories below normal, mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will be a bit
blustery today, esp after the onset of mixing soon after sunrise,
given the tight MSLP gradient between Milton and the incoming
surface high. Periodic gusts to 22-28 mph are expected, highest
across our SE areas, with sustained speeds and gusts from the NNE
and NE gradually decreasing late in the day with a slowly relaxing
gradient. Light winds and clear skies tonight amidst falling
dewpoints favors somewhat chilly lows well below normal, in the 40s
areawide, and a couple of upper 30s in the low-lying locales in the
far N are certainly possible. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Quiet weather will continue. The band of strongest mid level
westerlies will hold to our N, extending from Alberta across the
Great Lakes to New England, as a shortwave trough tracks through
Ontario. Weak flow over the rest of the CONUS, including a weak mid
level low over the S Gulf States and ridging over the Desert
Southwest and N Mexico, will keep us in a fairly light and dry NW
flow, while at the surface, the modifying high will settle over the
Carolinas/GA. Well below normal PWs under a third of an inch will
persist, with dry air and subsidence through a deep layer. Expect
very few clouds and generally light winds. The modifying air mass
should translate into very slightly milder temps Fri, despite the
cool start, with highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
clear/calm night will foster good radiational cooling, favoring lows
in the low-mid 40s, and once again, a few upper 30s are possible in
the typically colder spots. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 352 AM Thursday...

Mostly dry weather will last through at least the early part of next
week, with decent sunshine, esp this weekend. Warmer-than-normal
temps over the weekend will slip back below normal by Tue/Wed.

We`ll stay within a light NW steering flow over the weekend, as the
surface high settles to our S, over the Southeast states, halting
the CAA. The aforementioned polar stream shortwave will track
quickly from S Quebec early Sat morning across the Canadian
Maritimes through Sun, then another strong shortwave trough over
Manitoba will dive into the Upper Midwest and deepen rapidly,
culminating in a deep vortex covering the Great Lakes region and
adjacent Ontario and SW Quebec early next week. This will push a
cold front SSE through NC Mon, a pace fairly well agreed upon by
most models and model suites as well as their previous runs. With a
continued lack of opportunity for any substantial moisture return
into central NC ahead of or along the front, rain chances will be
very low, and will keep a dry forecast. Despite the lack of
moisture, though, the front will be a pretty strong one thermally
speaking, as mild prefrontal thicknesses supporting highs in the mid
70s to around 80 Sat/Sun are expected to drop roughly 50 m by Tue.
Mon highs will be tricky, esp if the cooler air is delayed by the
terrain, but still expect highs from the low 70s NW to upper
70s/near 80 SE. Highs Tue/Wed should be back down in the 60s. Lows
in the upper 40s/low 50s Sat night should be rather warm Sun night,
in the mid 50s to near 60 ahead of the front, then expect lows again
in the 40s to near 50 Mon night and 40s Tue night. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 AM Thursday...

The primary aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be gusty
winds, starting around 12z, and lasting to around 19z NW (including
INT/GSO) to around 23z SE (FAY). Surface winds from the NNE and NE
will be sustained at 10-16 kts with gusts up to 20-28 kts during the
morning through mid to late afternoon. These winds will not be
directly related to what is now Hurricane Milton, but instead due to
the tight surface pressure gradient, a sharp contrast between strong
high pressure centered to our NW and Milton`s circulation as it
pushes off the FL east coast through tonight. Aviation conditions
will otherwise be favorable, as VFR conditions will hold across the
area through tonight. A deck of thick high clouds streaming over
central and eastern NC will exit W to E through the morning into
early afternoon, leaving clear skies through tonight. Fog risk will
be low.

Looking beyond 12z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to dominate
through Mon, although there is a chance of low level wind shear
areawide Sun night ahead of an approaching dry cold front. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield