956
FXUS62 KRAH 111805
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift toward
Bermuda through mid-week. A weak, backdoor cold front will move
south through NC Friday or Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

While one band of rain developed along the US-64 corridor and moved
north this morning, the next area of rain that appears likely to
impact the region is currently developing across northern South
Carolina and southern North Carolina, moving from south to north
oriented along an east-to-west line. Multiple runs of the HRRR seem
to have a good handle on this, and have heavily blended the forecast
towards the HRRR-time lagged ensemble. This forecast brings the line
into southern counties during the mid afternoon and fading out
around sunset as it approaches US 64. The band is moving slowly to
the north, and with high moisture content in the atmosphere, cannot
rule out the possibility for some isolated flooding. Luckily, it
does not appear that much training of showers should occur, although
the entire area is under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall. Conditions should dry out this evening before
another area of rain develops across the southwest late tonight.
Below normal highs continue, with values ranging from the upper 70s
to the mid 80s. Lows will be similar to last night, in the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Moist flow out of the south will continue on Tuesday as an upper
level low to the east of Florida drifts closer to land. There will
already be some showers across western counties from the overnight
hours with coverage expanding to the east during the day.
Instability looks to be slightly higher than today, although shear
should still be minimal, minimizing any severe weather potential.
However, the area will still remain under a marginal (level 1 of 4)
risk for excessive rainfall. The HREF indicates that the heaviest
rainfall would be likely to occur across southern counties during
the morning hours. Highs will rise a few degrees from today, with
nearly all locations in the 80s. An isolated low temperature in the
upper 60s is possible, but most locations will be in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

*Showers and storms Wednesday, with heat returning Thursday.
*The weekend is expected to be mostly dry with near normal
temperatures.

A few upper level shortwaves will move across the region Wednesday
budging up against a ridge centered over Florida that is building
north. By late week and over the weekend the ridge will expand
across much of the Southeast. At the surface a few frontal
boundaries are expected to  to move over the Midwest and into the
Northeast mid to late week generally staying north of Central NC.
Wednesday is expected to be the best day for showers and storms as
the surface trough moves across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into
Thursday. Thursday through Friday afternoon showers and storms are
still expected to develop as PW values of 2+ inches will stick
around until the surface trough moves off the coast and weak high
pressure builds in. Isolated flash flooding is possible over
portions of Central NC through Friday as vertical wind shear will be
weak, most models are indicating shear values of 10 kts or less
Thursday and Friday (days with higher chance for flash flooding).

As upper level ridging and high pressure builds into the region over
the weekend drier weather along with slightly below normal
temperatures is expected. Saturday a backdoor cold front will try
and push through the region, but expected to wash out before making
it through the region. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are
possible Saturday and Sunday but models seem to be trending dry.
Monday another day of afternoon showers and storms are possible but
limited PoPs to slight chance (< 24%) as confidence is low.

Temperatures will start off below normal on Wednesday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will warm up Thursday (warmest
day in the forecast) with high in the upper 80s to low 90s. Friday
into the weekend temperatures will be near normal with most areas in
the upper 80s and warmer spots reaching the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Onshore flow will maintain a very moist airmass that will favor
redevelopment of LIFR-IFR ceilings tonight-Tue morning, after MVFR
to low VFR ones this afternoon. Generally scattered showers and
storms will concentrate along merged outflow and become briefly
numerous, most likely in the near term at FAY and also GSO/INT this
afternoon.

Outlook: Like Mon, ceilings on Tue will lift through MVFR and
scatter to VFR from mid to late morning through early to mid-
afternoon. The forecast for the rest of the week will be
characterized by mostly afternoon-evening showers/storms and patches
of overnight-early morning fog and/or low stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS