226
FXUS62 KRAH 081840
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east through the area this evening.
Behind the front, Canadian high pressure will yield an
extended period of below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

* Cold front sweeps through the area this evening with clearing
  skies, gusty winds, and a cooler night ahead

An upper level trough sweeping east across the Northeast and New
England tonight will help drive a cold front--currently over the NC
mtns and foothills-- through central NC by this evening.

Limited by poor lapse rates and weak instability, pre-frontal
convection has struggled mightily, with only spotty showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms noted mainly east of the area across the
coastal plain. This sparse convective trend continue, with only
isolated re-development expected until the front clears the region
around 03z.

In it`s wake, Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes will build
southeast into the Eastern US. Increasing sfc pressure rises and low-
level CAA will support post-frontal northerly gustiness of 15-25 mph
late this evening and overnight, with gustiness becoming more
intermittent towards daybreak. Skies will clear from north to south,
with lows ranging from upper 40s north to mid 50s south.


 &&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

*Crisp fall weather with the coldest night since April

Sprawling Canadian high pressure will usher in the coldest air of
the young season. Daytime heating will promote re-newed gustiness
after daybreak, peaking by midday with NELY gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon temperatures will warm into the
mid to upper 60s north to lower 70s south(3-6 degrees below-normal).

Low-level thicknesses Thursday night are forecast to fall into the
1335 m range. While the pressure gradient should remain sufficiently
taut to maintain a slight stirring of winds overnight, limiting
optimal radiational cooling, temperatures are still expected to fall
to their coldest levels since last April. Expect lows from lower/mid
40s north to upper 40s/lower 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

* Below normal high temperatures expected, warming to near normal by
  Wednesday.

* A coastal low is expected to develop this weekend, bringing the
  next chance of rain and gusty winds mainly east of US-1.

The cool, dry high pressure will continue to weaken and move
eastward on Friday. This will allow temperatures to stay below
normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows dropping
into the 50s overnight.

This weekend, the region should return to a period of unsettled
weather as a coastal low is expected to develop from the stalled
front off the southeast coast. The best chance of rain from this
system should start on Saturday and last through Monday morning as
the low moves up the coast and looks to be closest to the Outer
Banks on Sunday. Around 0.5-1 inch of rain is expected over the
weekend around the US-1 corridor and east, with some values up to
1.5 inches possible especially further to the east. However,
expected rainfall totals could change based on the track and
strength of the low. The low will also bring gusty winds to the
eastern portions of the region, with gusts around 30 mph possible
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The progression of the low at the
beginning of the work week is uncertain after it is expected to
interact/merge with a northern low. This means that rain could
continue into the week based on the track of the low. For
temperatures, high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s
to low 70s on Saturday, rising to the 70s to around 80 on Wednesday.
Lows should be in the 50s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 154 PM Wednesday...

Scattered light rain continues to stream east across central NC this
afternoon accompanied by multi-layered cloudiness. Brief periods of
MVFR ceilings may still be possible at KFAY/KRWI, but overall expect
clouds to primarily be mid to high level through the remainder of
the TAF period.  This initial light rain should exit central NC
through early this evening. However, additional showers may develop
along a passing backdoor cold front around 00Z tonight focused
mostly near KRDU/KRWI. These terminals could see brief showers from
along this front.  Lastly, immediately behind frontal passage,
expect a surge of 20 to 30 kt gusts from ~23 to 04Z, and perhaps on
and off again through ~12Z especially at KFAY.  The flow should
generally lax a bit Thursday morning, but still expect 10 to 20 kt
gusts at times through the end of the TAF period.

Beyond 18Z Thursday: Expect VFR conditions to prevail through early
Saturday. However, sub-VFR conditions, rain, and perhaps some gusty
winds appear possible with a developing coastal low later Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...Luchetti