638
FXUS62 KRAH 070126
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
825 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build over the Southeast states through
tonight, then push offshore Friday as a warm front lifts northward
through North Carolina. A weakening surface low will track west to
east over the Mid Atlantic region Saturday, helping push a backdoor
cold front through the area late Saturday. As this front settles to
our south, another low tracking along the front will bring a chance
for unsettled weather Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 825 PM Thursday...

Cold with winds becoming light tonight.

As surface high moves east to GA/FL into NC through late tonight,
the decreasing pressure gradient will lead to a continued
diminishing wind. The skies will remain clear until late tonight
when satellite data indicates high cloudiness will spread in between
09z and 12z from the Mississippi Valley. Lows 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

* Partly to mostly cloudy, dry, and seasonable Fri, then warm Sat,
  and rain chances mainly S Sun...

Fri/Fri night: Flat mid level ridging from E TX across the Gulf
states to the Southeast/Carolinas will flatten even more under the
influence of a deepening polar low over the St Lawrence/S Que as a
weak shear axis streaks eastward into the Ohio Valley and a slow
moving low drifts over NM. The surface high over the Southeast early
Fri will move quickly E and off the GA/FL coast during the day,
allowing a diffuse warm frontal zone to lift NNE through our area
and set up a warm SW flow into NC. The considerable mid level
cloudiness that spreads in late tonight will persist through much of
Fri, pushing gradually to our E Fri evening/night. The Fri night
passage of the mid level shear axis to our NW and N, over the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic region, will transport a corresponding
weakening surface low eastward along the aforementioned frontal
zone, from S IL across VA Fri night, corresponding to the offshore
push of the mid level cloudiness, so expect a decreasing trend in
clouds NW to SE Fri night. Recovering low level thicknesses and 850
mb temps Fri balanced with the partial cloud cover should result in
near normal highs, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Have nudged lows
up slightly to 40-45 with a light but steady SW breeze overnight.

Sat through Sun night: Models and ensemble output agree on the
frontal zone to our north dropping southward late Sat or Sat evening
as a backdoor cold front, propelled in part by the offshore-tracking
sheared vorticity lobe, resulting in a deepening of the mean broad
trough over and off the East Coast. But ahead of the front, WAA
including a downslope westerly component and limited clouds (save
for sct-bkn high-based aftn cu) will help push low level thicknesses
to about 20 m above normal in the warm sector. Will have mild highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With good deep mixing expected and
steepening low level lapse rates, some models including the GEFS and
GEPS favor at least isolated late day convection over our NE
sections and into SE VA; based on the deep dry air within the
inverted V signal, if any precip occurred, it seems like a low
probability and low impact event, perhaps sprinkles or virga, with
dry and warm mid levels above the mixed depth limiting the lightning
potential. Nevertheless, with at least some agreement among ensemble
systems, will include an isolated mention of just showers Sat
afternoon in the far NE for now. The front is expected to drop
through NC late Sat or Sat evening, settling to our S late Sat night
where it will hold through Sun night. The aforementioned NM low will
track eastward, crossing TX/OH Sat/Sat night and the Gulf states
Sun/Sun night with a positive tilt, as a preceding surface low
tracks along the front; model guidance remains varied with the track
(speed and latitude) of the low, but its existence is not in
question. Deepening moisture aloft as the shortwave trough
approaches with increasing Atlantic moisture in the low levels N of
the low track will allow a shield of rain to spread into the
Carolinas, although exactly how far N this shield will get remains
uncertain. Will stay close to the model mean which is in line with
the previous forecast, showing low rain chances spreading into our
SW late Sat night, culminating in chance pops Sun (20-30% N and 30-
45% S), tapering down to low chances far SE Sun night as the surface
low pushes offshore. Expect lows Sat night in the 30s to low 40s,
highs Sun mostly in the 50s, then lows in the 30s Sun night. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...

A surface low will track east and off the coast of the Southeast US
on Monday, with the associated mid/upper low trailing behind it.
Guidance is mostly in good agreement in depicting a compact, closed,
and slower mid/upper low that tracks along the northern Gulf coast
and then east of the GA/northern FL coast by Monday evening, keeping
the rain shield largely south of central NC. The GFS/GEFS is an
outlier with depicting the low tracking faster and farther north,
shearing it out into an open wave as it quickly moves across
SC/southern NC and into the Atlantic. This would result in a wetter
solution with rain lingering into Monday morning across southern
parts of our area. However, the GFS is trending toward the slower
and more compact solution with each run. Given that combined with
the consensus among other models including machine learning
guidance, and the WPC`s decision to completely exclude the GFS from
its forecast for this system, only have slight chance POPs in our
southern tier of counties on Monday morning, with no POPs the rest
of the day. Monday`s high temperatures will mostly be in the mid-
60s, which is slightly above normal.

Skies will clear on Monday night, with decent radiational cooling
bringing lows down into the mid-to-upper-30s (maybe lower-30s in
cooler outlying spots) as surface high pressure builds over the
Southeast US. The high will then move offshore, turning the low-
level flow southwesterly, as mid/upper ridging slides east across
the area. This pattern will bring springlike weather with sunny
skies and well above normal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast highs on Tuesday are in the lower-to-mid-70s with lows
Tuesday night dropping into the lower-to-mid-40s. Wednesday will be
even warmer as highs reach the mid-to-upper-70s, with lower-80s in
the far south not entirely out of the question. This is 15-20
degrees above normal. Wednesday night`s lows will only drop into the
lower-to-mid-50s under increasing clouds.

Meanwhile model guidance is in good agreement that the next southern
stream shortwave will move across the Southern Plains and
Lower/Middle MS Valley on Wednesday and Wednesday night, before
entering the Southeast US on Thursday. It appears it will be
weakening as it moves east, with ensemble means only depicting a
tenth to a quarter inch of QPF across our area. Still, this could
certainly change given how far out it is. Furthermore, the warmth
will continue and models depict enough instability for isolated
storm potential, so added a slight chance of thunder to the wx
grids. Capped POPs in the 40-50% range given it is Day 8 and the
light amounts shown on most guidance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period.
Northwest wind gusts are beginning to gradually relax with the loss
of daytime heating, but a tight pressure gradient still in place
will keep some gusts up to around 15 to 20 kts possible through
roughly 03z. Winds will become light and variable through the
overnight period as high clouds spread into the area from the
southwest. By Fri morning BKN to OVC multi-layered mid/high clouds
and some virga will overspread the area with surface winds veering
to southwesterly and gusts gradually increasing to around 15 kts by
Fri afternoon.

Outlook: Expect predominately VFR conditions through Saturday.
Friday night, LLWS is expected as a 45-50kt jet develops over the
region. A mostly dry cold front will drop south through the area
Saturday. As this front settles to our south, a weak sfc wave of low
pressure tracking through the Southeast could bring some rain and
associated sub-VFR restrictions across the area late Saturday night
and Sunday. VFR conditions should return on Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Swiggett/CBL