062
FXUS62 KRAH 100554
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will migrate across the Southeast ahead of a
strong, clipper low pressure system that will swing across the Great
Lakes later tonight and Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front
trailing the clipper low will move across NC Wednesday night.
Another area of high pressure will follow and build across the
Southeast Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

* Unseasonably cold, with refreezing of melting snow cover that will
  lead to a risk of black ice near the VA border

Within a broad trough encompassing ern NOAM, a low amplitude
shortwave perturbation now over the srn Appalachians, and preceding
plume of cirrostratus, will progress ewd and across cntl NC through
early this evening, then offshore. Meanwhile, a more vigorous and
highly amplified shortwave trough will dig from the nrn Plains this
afternoon to the mid MS Valley by 12Z Wed. After a short period of
relatively clear between the two this evening over cntl NC,
additional mid and high-level moisture will be enhanced downstream
of that trough, with a gradual thickening and lowering of associated
ceilings to around 15 thousand ft, through Wed morning.

At the surface, Arctic high pressure now centered at 1023 mb over
the ern Carolinas will continue to weaken while settling across the
South Atlantic states, to the vicinity of nrn FL by 12Z Wed. It will
do so downstream of a now 989-990 mb clipper low that will migrate
from ern ND to MI through the same time. The MSL pressure gradient
and height fields between the two will tighten markedly over cntl NC
overnight, with the development of a swly breeze that may gust at
times into the 20s mph over the srn and nw Piedmont around sunrise,
when an intense, 60-70 kt low-level jet will be in the process of
progressing across the Appalachians. That low-level jet may also
contribute the maintenance of an area of stratocumulus ceilings that
has been slow to disperse today beneath a strong, subsidence
inversion over the wrn Carolinas, as the associated shearing
deformation acts upon a zone of pre-existing 925 mb Fgen and frontal
lift inferred by the strong 925 mb temperature gradient evident
there in 12Z-observed upr air data.

The Arctic airmass overhead, which has supported temperatures this
afternoon only in the mid 30s to lwr 40s, will have an opportunity
to radiationally cool this evening, between the aforementioned areas
of high clouds and prior to the strengthening of the swly breeze.
Quick cooling into the 20s to lwr 30s will probably result, before
temperatures steady or rise after midnight. Lastly, visible
satellite data this afternoon depict a shrinking area of snow cover
confined to the far nrn reaches of the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain, such that refreezing and black ice concerns Wed morning will
be too spatially-limited for any additional Winter Weather Advisory
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 PM Tuesday...

A potent mid-level short wave will dive southeast through the Ohio
Valley early Wednesday before pushing across the Southeast US
Wednesday evening.  While mid-level height falls will accompany this
feature, mid to upper flow should be relatively wly, and as such,
most moisture associated with the feature should ring out on the
western slopes of the southern Appalachians.

At the sfc, pre-frontal swly flow will pick up early to mid
Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal
(highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Forecast soundings from various models continue to depict the
potential for strong momentum transfer if we can mix deep enough.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph may be possible late Wednesday morning through
sunset.  Otherwise, a dry cold front will pass through central NC
Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer though as winds
stay stirred behind the front and we only radiate down into the
upper 20s/lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Wednesday...

* Main story in the extended is much below normal temperatures Sun
  night and Mon, with wind chills early Mon in the single digits to
  teens

On Fri, a clipper system will track across the lower OH valley and
into VA during the afternoon and evening. Pretty good WAA will build
over the region as a warm front lifts north. We would not be
surprised if some virga or light precipitation exists across our far
northern counties. But as the system looks right now, most of the
energy is situated in VA so the main influence we will see is
increasing cloud cover. Highs should top out in the mid 40s N to low
50s S.

More seasonal temperatures arrive on Sat in the wake of the Fri
system with low 50s N to upper 50s in the south.

A strong Arctic cold front is still forecast to advance through the
region Sunday evening, with cold high pressure in its wake on Mon.
This front will largely pass through dry as NW downslope flow favors
the best rain chances on the windward side of the Appalachians.
However, the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF are wetter than most ensemble
members. For now, we kept a dry forecast in line with the model
consensus, but would not be surprised if some isolated showers were
around during the day Sun.

Well below normal temperatures will build behind the Arctic front,
with mid teens to low 20s Mon morning and highs then in the mid 30s
to around 40. Wind chills Mon morning could dip into the single
digits to teens. Temperatures should moderate by Tue with highs back
into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Wednesday...

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period, with
occasional broken to overcast mid/high clouds streaming across the
region.

There remains a low probability that shallow low-level moisture
trapped beneath an inversion could result in brief MVFR ceilings
around the Triad around daybreak, though guidance support has
continued to diminish.

A 35-45 kt SW low-level jet will overspread the area tonight, likely
resulting in low-level wind shear late tonight and mechanical
turbulence after daybreak. This will transition to strong gusty
winds at the surface as momentum mixes down with daytime heating.
Expect sustained SW winds of 15 to 20 kts, gusting  up to 25-35 kts
from mid morning into the afternoon, decreasing after sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the
weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CBL