474
FXUS62 KRAH 221959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will remain along the East Coast into Thursday.
A weak low pressure system will develop off the Carolinas Thursday.
Temperatures will slowly moderate over the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...

Behind departing low pressure, high pressure has taken residence
along the East Coast, centered over the mid-Atlantic states. Skies
will remain clear through the afternoon and evening, then clouds
will increase from the south late tonight. Between the wind becoming
calm overnight and the fresh snow cover over much of the area,
tonight will have excellent conditions for radiational cooling
before the clouds arrive late. The Triad is likely to be the warmest
area tonight, and is likely the only area that may remain in the
teens tonight. Otherwise all locations are expected to fall into the
single digits. Considering how light the wind will be, the wind
chill will be negligible and a Cold Weather Advisory will
essentially be based on air temperatures. The Cold Weather Advisory
will not include any counties where the criteria is 5 degrees, as
readings below 5 degrees should be pretty isolated, but will cover
many areas along and east of US-1.

Despite some clearing of snow from area roads today, the hard freeze
that is expected tonight should allow any remaining moisture to
refreeze and make travel difficult on local roads, especially in
shady locations where the sun was not able to make much progress on
evaporating water on roadways. Have issued a winter weather advisory
for black ice primarily along and east of US-1 where the highest
snowfall occurred for the dangerous conditions that are expected to
develop overnight and persist into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM Wednesday...

Swly flow aloft will continue on Thursday as a strengthening jet
moves off the southeast to mid-Atlantic coast. At the sfc, high
pressure will slowly ooze off the east coast, promoting light winds
and another day of chilly temperatures (highs peak in the mid to
upper 30s). Expect some cloudiness to linger through much of the
day, although given considerably dry PWAT, no precipitation is
expected.

As we pivot to the overnight period, a short-wave will dig into the
deep south as a strong sfc high moves across the central US. A dry
cold front will slide through overnight, promoting some stirring of
the winds. As such, expect overnight lows to only dip into the upper
teens to around 20 or so.  Consequently, do not suspect a cold
weather advisory would be needed Thursday night. However, given
continued melting of lingering snow, isolated areas of black of ice
will remain possible through Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

Friday through the weekend, surface high pressure will build over
the Southern Plains and move eastward, passing to our south. This
period should warm from highs in the low to mid 40s on Friday to
around 50 by Sunday. Similarly, lows on Friday night should be in
the upper teens to low 20s, increasing to upper 20s to low 30s by
Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday should be near normal.

The next chance of precipitation comes late Sunday night/early
Monday morning ahead of the next cold frontal passage on Tuesday.
Models are still unclear with how much moisture will be pulled up
from the gulf for this system, leading to high uncertainty in
precipitation chances. The GFS is still the wetter solution, with
the Euro remaining dry over Central NC. If precipitation starts
early enough and occurs far enough north, some isolated pockets of
freezing rain are possible in the Triad where temperatures could be
around freezing before sunrise. Any rain should clear out of the
region Monday night. Highs on Monday should be near normal in the
low 50s, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Tuesday a weak cold front is expected to move through the region,
however the airmass does not appear to change much. Therefore,
temperatures are expected to increase both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs on Tuesday are expected in the low to mid 50s, with lows in
the low 30s Tuesday night. On Wednesday highs may reach the mid to
upper 50s, with 60 degrees possible in the south, and lows are
expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. Wind should be relatively light out of the northeast at
INT/GSO through the next 24 hours, but the wind is a bit stronger
out of the north-northeast at RDU/FAY/RWI because of the departing
low pressure offshore. After sunset, the atmosphere should decouple,
dropping the wind speeds. After midnight, high clouds will move over
all sites, establishing a high ceiling.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected to last into Sunday, then a
chance of rain will return to the forecast for Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970


Record Low Minimum Temperatures:

January 23:
KGSO: 6/1936
KRDU: 8/1977
KFAY: 9/1970


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Thursday for NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-076>078-085-086-088-
089.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
Thursday for NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH