149
FXUS62 KRAH 091935
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
334 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through
Friday. Low pressure will develop near the SE coast Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

*Crisp and cool

Sprawling Canadian high pressure extending south down the Eastern
Seaboard will yield one of the coolest nights of the season with low-
level thicknesses tonight forecast to fall around 1340 meters.
However, sufficient BL mixing combined with a scattered to broken 4-
5 kft stratus deck spreading into the area from the east, should
limit optimal radiational cooling. Overnight lows ranging from mid
40s north to lower 50s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

* Increasing clouds with rain chances increasing late Friday night

Canadian high pressure will remain wedged south into the Carolinas,
while a shortwave trough over the Southeast begins to close off,
leading to weak surface cyclogenesis near the Florida/SE US Coast
late Friday and Friday night.

As 925-700mb flow becomes increasing easterly, multi-layer
cloudiness will expand, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Combined
with continued NELY sfc flow, highs Friday will be similar to
Thursday---mid/upper 60s north to lower 70s south---with occasional
gusts of 15 to 20 mph.

Cloud cover will continue to thicken and lower Friday evening, with
rain chances increasing late Friday night and during the predawn
hours as strengthening moisture flux convergence spreads
northwestward from the SE coast. Not as cool with lows ranging from
lower 50s NW to lower 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

* A coastal low is expected to develop this weekend, bringing the
  next chance of rain and gusty winds mainly along and east of the
  US-1 corridor.

* Below normal high temperatures expected to warm to above normal by
  the middle of next week.

A coastal low is still expected to form off of a stalled front,
which is located off the southeast coast, and move up the mid-
Atlantic coast this weekend. This will allow the region to return to
a period of unsettled weather. There is still uncertainty in the
models with how far west the low will track, however rain looks to
be possible starting Saturday afternoon through Sunday night,
however could continue into Monday in the northeast. The uncertainty
in the track of the system is also causing large model spread in
rainfall totals over the region. The current rainfall total forecast
is for a few hundredths over the western Piedmont to a half inch to
inch in the Triangle to around an inch to 1.5 inches over the
Coastal Plain. However, depending on the location of the low, these
amounts could be cut in half for a more eastern low or double for a
more western low. A sharp gradient of rainfall totals is likely with
this system. Regardless of exact track, gusty winds are expected
around 25 mph, with locally higher gusts possible Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

After the coastal low moves further northeast out of the region,
ridging should spread across the region. This will allow
temperatures to rise to slightly above normal. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday and increase
to the 70s to around 80 by Tuesday before another slight cool down
is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Lows should be in the 50s to low
60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through 18z/Friday.

NELY gustiness of 17-22 kts will diminish this evening with winds
remaining 5-10 kts overnight.

As 925-850mb flow becomes easterly tonight through Friday, low-end
VFR ceilings (bases 3.5-4 kft) are expected to develop across the
area late tonight and continue into the day on Friday.

Outlook: A developing coastal low along the SE US Coast Friday will
lift northward and track up the NC coast over the weekend. The most
significant aviation impacts are expected across eastern and central
NC, where a prolonged period of widespread sub-VFR restrictions is
likely as rain overspreads the area from the Southeast Saturday
morning and continues into Sunday.  Conditions should start to
improve Sunday night into Monday. In addition, gusty NELY winds of
20 to 30 mph are expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...CBL