408
FXUS62 KRAH 071121
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure in the western Atlantic will drift westward to
over Florida through Friday. A cold front will move southward
through the mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night, with high pressure
ridging southward through central North Carolina over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Thursday...

The area of light rain is quickly moving off to the east. Have
updated PoPs to reflect a faster ending of precip.

Previous discussion: A ribbon of upper impulses and associated jet
divergence embedded within a moist PWAT plume of 1.5-2.0"(200-230%
of normal) will continue to support an area of mostly light to
occasionally moderate rain(southern portions of the forecast area)
through mid to late morning. Rainfall amounts are expected to range
from a trace across the north to a quarter of an inch across the
southern Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties.

Conditions will dry out by the afternoon as the the upper impulses
and strongest moisture transport shifts east off the Carolina coast.
However, moisture will remain sufficient amidst continued upper
level divergence and weak diurnal destabilization, to support
isolated/widely scattered shower activity across central NC.

Isolated to widely scattered rain chances will continue into the
evening and overnight hours as a back-door cold front sags slowly
south into the area during the evening and overnight and should
bisect central NC daybreak Friday.

Under partly to most cloudy skies and light W-SWLY winds, highs
today in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows mainly in the
lower/mid 60s, except for some upper 50s possible north of the cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Aloft, a weak s/w disturbance will move through central NC on Fri
and offshore with the parent trough by Fri night. Meanwhile, the sub-
tropical ridge will amplify to the west, blocking the eastward
progression of a cyclone over the Rockies Fri night. At the surface,
a cold front, draped W-E through the mid-Atlantic, will move swd
through central NC late Fri/Fri night as cool high pressure moving
sewd through the Great Lakes ridges into the area. Showers will be
most likely along the NC/VA border Fri morning, possibly holding
together and progressing swd through the area ahead of the front.
There is still some uncertainty wrt the timing of the front moving
through the area, which could impact highs for Fri, but for now
generally expect low 70s NE to upper 70s SW. Lows Fri night should
range from mid/upper 40s north to low 50s south.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Aloft, the amplifying sub-tropical ridge will progress eastward
through the eastern US over the weekend, while the low over the
central Rockies lifts nnewd through the Plains, upper MS Valley and
into the Great Lakes. As the ridge shifts offshore Sun night and the
low moves ewd through the Great Lakes, the attendant trough will
extend swd through the mid-Atlantic, clipping central NC. Once the
trough shifts offshore on Mon, the flow aloft will become briefly
zonal, until another trough moves through the area Tue, followed by
another amplifying sub-tropical ridge on Wed. At the surface, high
pressure will continue ridging through the area Sat/Sat night. As
the high moves out over the Atlantic on Sun the ridge should weaken,
although some ridging may persist over the western Piedmont until
the next cold front moves in from the west Sun night. As the next
cold front approaches from the west on Mon, a pre-frontal trough
will strengthen over the area, eroding what is left of the ridge.
The front should move through the area late Mon/Mon night, with
strong Canadian high pressure ridging swd into the area for Tue and
Wed.

Precipitation: The best chance for rain in the extended forecast
will be ahead of the cold front late Sun through Mon. Initially, the
rain may be more stratiform in nature owing to isentropic lift as
warm moist air overruns the lingering ridge. This could set up a
period of CAD over the northwest Piedmont late Sun/Sun night. As the
wedge erodes early Mon, precipitation should become more showery in
nature, moving through the area ahead of the front. Coverage and
amounts remain a bit uncertain at this time.

As for temperatures, if the CAD scenario plays out, temperatures may
need to be lowered in the NW Sun into Mon, but for now expect highs
Sun ranging from around 60 degrees NW to low 70s SE and lows Sun
night in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Assuming the wedge erodes
Mon, highs should range from low/mid 70s north to mid/upper 70s
south. Temperatures should gradually decrease through mid-week, but
remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 AM Thursday...

The area of light rain is quickly moving east, out of the area.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a mixture of stratus and fog as the rain
moves out. Any restrictions this morning should lift to VFR by 14 to
15z. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this
afternoon and into tonight as a back-door cold fronts sags slowly
south into the area. Additionally, moisture pooling along the front
should result in a high chance of LIFR to IFR restrictions in stratus
and or fog as the front bisects the area tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions should return from north to south as the
aforementioned cold front pushes south of the area through Friday
afternoon. VFR should prevail Sat and Sun, before another frontal
system warrants a chance of showers late Sun into Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 7:
KGSO: 82/2022
KRDU: 84/2022
KFAY: 86/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 7:      November 8:
KGSO: 61/2022    KGSO: 57/1975
KRDU: 65/2022    KRDU: 64/1895
KFAY: 65/2003    KFAY: 65/1946

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/Kren
CLIMATE...RAH