499
FXUS62 KRAH 011042
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Sat Nov 01 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through most of the weekend, moving
offshore Sunday. A mid/upper low pressure is expected to track from
the mid-Mississippi Valley southeast through the TN Valley Sunday,
then move slowly east across GA and southern SC Sunday night through
Monday. High pressure will then build across the region from the
west early to mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 158 AM Saturday...

Sunny and cool today after the early morning frost threat.

Increasing cloudiness and not as chilly tonight.

High pressure will be over the region today and will move offshore
tonight. Early morning readings in the 30s will warm quickly today
in the dry air. Expect highs today will be mostly in the lower to
mid 60s. Expect increasing cloudiness tonight as low pressure
approaches late tonight from the west. Lows in the mid to upper 30s
east where clouds will be last to increasing, ranging into the upper
30s to lower 40s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 158 AM Saturday...

Increasing rain chances late Sunday into Sunday night.

The approach of the mid/upper level low from the MS Valley is
expected Sunday. As this low pressure tracks ESE across the
southeastern states late Sunday and Sunday night, a surface low will
develop off the SC coast late Sunday, then track NE along the coast
Sunday night. Cloudiness should thicken up Sunday as the system
approaches. There is a chance of rain late in the Piedmont and SE.
Highs generally in the 60s. A chance of rain west and rain is likely
elsewhere Sunday night. This rain chance/likelihood will linger into
early Monday. Lows Monday morning should be in the 40s west and near
50 east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

* Lingering rain chances from a coastal low through Monday
  afternoon, otherwise dry.

* Seasonably cool temperatures, increasing to seasonably warm by the
  end of the week.

The chance for light rain will linger into Monday from the upper low
and potential coastal low. There are still some differences in how
far south the upper level low will dip, however models are coming
into better agreement with the low passing further south,
potentially tracking over the FL/GA border Monday afternoon. At the
surface, a weak coastal low or wave looks to move up the NC coast
Monday morning. This will allow rain chances to linger mainly in the
east Monday morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals Sunday into
Monday look to be less than 0.5 inches for all of central NC, with
the higher amounts to the east and lower amounts in the west. The
system should exit the region by Monday night or Tuesday, leaving
surface high pressure which will dominate the weather through
Friday.

Temperatures are expected to start the long term being seasonably
cool, increasing to seasonably warm by midweek. High temperatures
Monday should be in the low/mid 60s, perhaps staying in the upper
50s in the north. Each afternoon should warm a few degrees, until a
weak and dry cold front on Thursday, which should keep Friday`s
temperatures in the mid 60s north to around 70s in the south. Lows
look to stay in the 40s each night, with the exception of Tuesday
and Thursday nights, which look to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s
as reinforcing highs build into the region and conditions look
favorable for radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours.

Outlook: VFR conditions should continue through Sunday, then there
will be the potential for some IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys with some
rain, mainly in the south and east Sunday night and Monday morning.
A return to VFR is expected late Monday through mid-week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...RAH