


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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599 FXUS62 KRAH 180548 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 148 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will settle off the Southeast coast today. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night, followed by high pressure settling back into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Saturday... * Above normal temperatures today. Mild tonight. Weak shortwave crossing the area this morning. The main impact is a patch of high clouds and limited radiational cooling or even some weak warming from downward longwave radiation the rest of this morning. Otherwise quiet weather with highs in the mid to upper 70s, about 6-10 degree above normal. Southerly flow will begin to increase a bit tonight ahead of a low pressure system in the Midwest. No impacts other than some scattered stratocu in the western Piedmont late. Mild lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM Saturday... * Showers and strong wind gusts with a cold front crossing the area Sunday afternoon and evening. A deep shortwave trough will pivot across the Midwest and TN Valley, then begin to lift across western NC and into VA on Sunday. The associated cold front will cross central NC Sunday evening. The shortwave will result in modest H5 height falls around 90m Sunday afternoon across NW Piedmont. Bulk shear is strong at 50-60kt across the NW but MLCAPE is forecast to be less than 500 J/kg and highest in the south, resulting in poor overlap of shear and CAPE. The overall trend of precip and QPF should be downward as the system crosses the mountains and moves into the Piedmont. Theta-e fields suggest a prefrontal band of showers is possible during the day on Sunday, followed by the cold frontal showers Sunday evening. QPF amounts will be light over all - less than 0.25 on average. Thunderstorm chances appear limited to the stronger upper forcing in the NW Sunday evening. Wind gusts are the main concern with the approach of the front and intensifying pre-frontal LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest 25-30kt in the mixed layer Sunday afternoon, increasing to 30-35kt Sunday evening, with some potential for isolated higher gusts within some of the showers given well mixed sub-layer and inverted-V soundings. Wind gusts will decrease but may be slow to abate behind the front Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 123 AM Saturday... * Another mostly dry front will keep the region seasonably cool. After the cold frontal passage Sunday night, cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build into the region. This will allow for seasonably cool temperatures to return, with highs on Monday in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the low/mid 40s overnight. Monday afternoon dewpoints should dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s, which could bring fire weather concerns if winds are able to remain elevated due to a sharp pressure gradient. Tuesday afternoon will be slightly warmer than Monday as winds will be out of the southwest ahead of another mostly dry cold front that looks to move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday are expected to generally reach the low/mid 70s, with lows overnight dipping into the mid 40s in the northwest to the low 50s in the southeast. Although the front will be moisture starved with PWs less than 1 in, a light shower or two cannot be completely ruled out with the frontal passage, especially in the north. The main story with the cold front will be the reinforcing cool and dry air from the stronger Canadian high pressure moving into the region. Highs Wednesday through Friday are generally expected in the mid 60s to low 70s, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Wednesday night warming to the mid 40s to around 50 by Friday night. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM Saturday... Light and variable surface winds overnight will become southerly around 5-10 kts this afternoon as the high shifts offshore. Outlook: Swly surface winds will strengthen and gust to around 30-35 kts Sunday, ahead of a cold front that. The front will move across cntl NC Sunday evening and Sunday night, accompanied by a band of low VFR to MVFR ceilings and showers. Dry VFR conditions return on Monday. A moisture starved cold front may bring will bring breezy conditions again Tuesday and Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...BLS/CBL