177
FXUS62 KRAH 101749
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through
today, then shift offshore tonight and Saturday. Low pressure will
develop near the SE coast today and move north along the NC
coast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 AM Friday...

Increasing clouds with rain chances increasing late tonight (SE).

A large Canadian high pressure (1033+ mb) will continue to extend
down the eastern seaboard into NC today and tonight, even as the
core of the high shifts off the New England coast. Cloudiness will
increase especially this afternoon and tonight as low pressure
develops off the FL coast. There is a chance of rain late tonight,
mainly in the SE. However, rainfall will be very light to start.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows tonight in the 50s to near 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 AM Friday...

Cool and cloudy.

Periods of rain, especially over eastern into central NC Saturday
and Saturday night.

Breezy in the east. NE winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

The latest hi-res models forecast more rainfall westward into central
NC Saturday and Saturday night. This trend has been noted for a
a couple of runs. We have raised POP into the eastern Piedmont, with
periods of rain expected into this region. There is a chance of rain
in the western Piedmont.

QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 can be expected into the eastern Piedmont, with
1-2 inches east of Interstate 95. Due to the very dry conditions and
the fact that rainfall rates are not currently expected to be
high at this time, flooding is not anticipated.

NE winds will be gusty, especially in the east Saturday into
Saturday night. NE winds to 25-30 mph can be expected. Winds
will be 10-20 in the west.

Highs will be cool, aided by the clouds and rain. Expect mainly
60s. Lows will not be much lower than Saturday highs. Expect
mainly upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 212 AM Friday...

* Coastal low lingers Sun with gusty winds and pockets of rainfall.

* No hazardous weather once the low exits Mon

The only noteworthy weather in the extended will be the coastal low
Sun into Mon. Forecast guidance remains mixed on potentially a pair
of offshore lows or a single sub 1000-mb low along the Outer Banks
on Sun. A single and more developed low would favor a more well
developed deformation precipitation band on Sun morning and
afternoon to early evening, along with gusty winds of 15 to 30 mph,
highest in the east. A pair of lows would favor a somewhat
disjointed nature to the precipitation, and weaker gradient winds.
The median additional rainfall Sun ranges from a tenth to two tenths
of an inch along/east of US-1, though could be higher/lower
depending on how the system evolves as mentioned. Highs should be
below normal in the upper 60s to low 70s N to S. Rain chances should
lessen Sun night, but could linger in our NE zones if the single
parent low verifies.

The coastal low will be near or south of Delmarva by Mon as a ~997-
mb low. Some lingering light rain/drizzle may be possible Mon
morning in the northern Coastal Plain. Otherwise, models are
trending that the low will remain off the VA/NC coast perhaps into
midweek, keeping us in a northerly flow pattern. Regardless, ridging
should build east from the MS valley, favoring sunny skies and
warmer weather Mon to Wed in the mid/upper 70s. There appears to be
a trend by late next week for troughing to set up over the Mid-
Atlantic, which could favor a dry cold front for highs closer to
normal in the low/mid 70s come Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 147 PM Friday...

Multi-layered cloudiness continues to spill across central NC
upstream of a developing coastal low.  VFR conditions should prevail
through much of the early 24 hour TAF period. However, a surge of
low-level moisture should drop terminals to MVFR/IFR ceilings as
early as ~09Z at KFAY/KRWI, ~12Z at KRDU, and closer to ~18Z at
KINT/KGSO.  Associated light rain will promote some reduced
visibilities at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI as well. KINT/KGSO should largely
remain dry until after the 24 hr TAF period. Otherwise, expect nely
gusts of 15 to 20 kts to persist this afternoon before dropping off
a bit overnight (although still stay mixed). Winds will pick back up
Saturday morning gusting at times 25 to 30 kts at KFAY/KRWI late
Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Beyond 18Z Saturday: Guidance has come into better agreement pushing
steadier rain into all of central NC Saturday afternoon, evening,
and into the overnight period.  As such, expect periods of LIFR
conditions especially at KFAY/KRWI where heaviest rain appears
possible.  The low will slowly migrate northward Sunday into Monday.
As such, expect periods of rain and sub-VFR conditions to persist
through Monday morning.  Additionally, periods of LLWS may be
possible Saturday night at KFAY/KRWI. Strong nely gusts may
redevelop (30+ kts) at KFAY Sunday morning depending on the eventual
track of the low.  Beyond early Monday, expect high pressure and VFR
conditions to return through the remainder of the extended period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...NTL