089
FXUS62 KRAH 081349
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
945 AM EDT Tue Mon Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will bring the threat for freezing conditions
tonight over much of Central NC. The high pressure will shift
offshore Wednesday allowing for moderation in the temperatures.
Another cold front will approach Thursday, with the next chance of
showers late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...

With the morning update, tweaked hourly temperatures and dewpoints.
In addition, a bit of upstream cumulus clouds appear likely to
advect into the area from Virginia, and have also bumped up the sky
cover - perhaps not enough. Did not make much of a change to high
temperatures during the day, which will be well below normal -
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Previous discussion follows.


As of 630 AM Tuesday...

...Freeze Warning for most of Central NC except the far southern
counties 400 AM through 900 AM Wednesday...

Lows tonight in the upper 20s to lower 30s, except mid 30s SE.

The cold front has exited the coast as of 630 AM. However, there is
a dry line over the western Piedmont. This will bring an increase in
NNW wind and lower dew points in the next few hours as it moves
through.

Expect strong cold dry advection today with a rather brisk northerly
flow. The skies will become mostly sunny after some lingering
morning cloudiness. Highs will be much cooler... in the 50s NW-N
ranging into the mid 60s SE. North winds 10-20 mph this morning will
gradually become lighter late in the day.

Expect clear and cold conditions tonight. High pressure will settle
over VA and northern NC overnight. This will bring calm conditions.
Most guidance continues to point toward lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s in the Freeze Warning area. Luckily, urban centers in the
Triad and Triangle should hold just above freezing for urban gardener
interests. However, the boundary layer is expected to remain more
mixed in the south and southeast as the center of the high will be
to their north. Therefore, even though lows will be in the mid 30s
near the SC line, frost is not likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESdAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

A cold start, then mostly sunny (60-65).

After the cold start, moderating temperatures will occur as the high
pressure shifts offshore. It will still extend back to the SW from
the western Atlantic ensuring dry weather and mostly sunny/clear
skies Wednesday/Wednesday night. Highs will rebound into the lower
to mid 60s. Lows will moderate into the mid 30s NE to mid 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

-Showers and storms expected late Thursday through Friday with
lingering showers possible Saturday.

-Below normal temperatures through the weekend.

Surface high pressure will exit the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday
followed by an incoming cold front. A surface low centered over the
the western OH valley Thursday morning will trek southeast then
becoming centered over the VA-NC region by Friday morning before
finally shifting off the DELMARVA coast Saturday morning. Associated
with the low, a weak warm frontal boundary will lift across the the
region Thursday afternoon increasing warm southerly winds ahead of
the approaching cold front. Thursday temperatures will be near
normal with highs in the mid 60s north to low 70s south. The cold
front and associated surface low will slowly move across the region
late Thursday night through much of Friday bringing a chance of
showers and storms. Good shear and instability could result in a few
isolated severe storms Friday afternoon. As the low exits the region
late Friday most of the precip will exit as well, but a few
lingering showers are possible Saturday morning especially across
the Coastal Plain as some models are showing a coastal low develop
along the exiting cold front. Saturday temperatures will cool off
after the cold front passes with NW winds ushering in cooler air.
Highs Saturday will be in the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. High
pressure over the region Sunday and Monday will result in dry
weather and with highs in the 60s on Sunday and 70s on Monday. Lows
will be in the 40s Sat/Sun night, before moderating into the 50s
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. N winds 10-20 kt
expected to diminish by late afternoon to less than 10 kt.

Looking beyond 12Wed, VFR conditions are likely to dominate until
Thu, when an approaching storm system will bring a risk of sub-VFR
conditions and shower chances from late Thu through Fri. Gusty
winds are expected areawide Thu and Fri as well. VFR conditions
should then return for Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from late tonight through early Wednesday morning for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett