Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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698 FXUS62 KRAH 010152 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 952 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will then extend into the southeast Monday and Tuesday, with a gradual return of heat and humidity by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 951 PM Sunday... Despite multiple rounds of convection over central NC through the afternoon into the evening hours, the area is characterized by a continued moist and unstable environment ahead of an approaching cold front from the north. 00z RAOB data from GSO, MHX, and FFC show PWAT values near or exceeding the moving daily maximum of their local climatology showing values of 2 to 2.25 inches. Surface temperatures in the 80s to upper 70s combined with surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s yield little to non-existent surface stability and nearly uncapped MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Continued outflow boundary collisions and localized ascent from upstream MCVs will support the sustenance of showers and storms through 06z. A cold front is currently observed pushing through northern VA where a northerly wind shift with a notable drop in dew points into the 60s to 50s. A second round of convection is likely as this front sags south into central NC tonight into early Mon morning. Severe threat will likely be limited, but isolated strong to severe wet downbursts may still be possible, especially if any loosely organized multi-cell clusters develop. Additionally, localized flooding will remain possible, especially where training storms occur or heavy rainfall impacts areas that previously saw heavy rain from the first round of storms. Lows tonight will be tied heavily to the cooler air that spills in behind the front ranging from the mid 60s (NE) to mid 70s (S). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Sunday... Overnight showers and storms should be exiting the southern coastal plain by Monday morning as a fairly stout cold front for the season (10-15F temp drop across OH this afternoon), surges into the area from the north. a 40m+ drop in 1000-850mb thicknesses combined with dewpoints dropping into the 50s (some guidance suggests upper 40s with mixing) will result in a much welcomed relief from the heat. highs will top out several degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s. Also behind the front, winds will gust to 15kt to perhaps as high as 20kt. RH values will also dip into the lower 30s across northern areas. This does not met any criteria for fore weather hazards, but given the recent drought development, it is worth noting. Lows Monday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 PM Sunday... A common summertime airmass moderation will occur throughout the week as the sub-tropical ridge, briefly tempered by today`s shortwave and cold front, will build back east across the region, while the Bermuda highs allows moisture to return back across the region with winds turning to southerly by late Wednesday into Thursday. The upper ridge, progged to again reach 596dm+ by Thursday across the southeast US, will also support the return of highs in the mid/upper 90s areawide and potentially 100s in some locations. Dewpoints are also progged to trend back into the lower 70s, particularly in the east on the downshear side of the lee trough. This will may again result in dangerous heat and humidity as has been observed for the past few days. Rain chances will hinge on the lee trough and other diurnally forced circulations Thursday into the weekend, Models to hint at a weak cold front by Sunday Monday with an upper trough over the northern US. Confidence in that remains low at days 7/89. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 810 PM Sunday... Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue across central NC through this evening, with the best chance at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI). A secondary round of showers and isolated storms may accompany the cold front late tonight and early tomorrow morning at the eastern terminals. Low stratus is also expected to develop after about 05z-06z at FAY and RWI, with MVFR or IFR ceilings possible. Models differ on how far west the sub-VFR stratus will reach, but for now have a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings at RDU. Opted not to include mention in the TAFs at INT or GSO, but a brief MVFR ceiling still can`t be entirely ruled out there. Think all the cloud cover and showers should make it difficult for widespread fog to develop, and HREF probabilities for reduced visibilities are rather low, but a few sub-VFR visibilities can`t be totally ruled out. Winds will switch from S/SW this evening to NE by early tomorrow morning as the front moves through. NE winds may gust to 15-20 kts tomorrow morning into early afternoon before gradually diminishing. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday through Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal showers/ storms and early morning fog/stratus from Friday into next weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...bls NEAR TERM...Swiggett SHORT TERM...bls LONG TERM...bls AVIATION...Danco/Luchetti