473
FXUS62 KRAH 241800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak coastal low will move north off the NC coast through this
evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west and
move east through the area through Monday. High pressure building
into the area will bring noticeably cooler and less humid conditions
for the rest of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

* Showers and storms will move east into the NC Piedmont this
  afternoon before dissipating during the evening

Rain associated with the weak coastal low lifting north up the NC
coast should remain confined to areas along the immediate coast.

Meanwhile to our west, a fractured band of showers and storms with
the incoming amplifying long wave trough and it`s attendant cold
front will weaken this evening as nocturnal cooling increases BL
CIN. Hi-res guidance suggests a rogue shower could reach as far east
as the Triangle around midnight, otherwise dry conditions are
expected overnight as the front progresses into central and eastern
NC by daybreak. Clouds will scatter out from west to east. Overnight
lows will range from 65 to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

* Isolated shower or storm across far southeastern NC Monday

* Initial installment of noticeably cooler and drier arrives Monday
  night

The surface cold front will stall across the eastern-third of the
forecast area Monday before finally pushing offshore late Monday
evening and into Monday night. This will delay the first installment
of cooler, drier into the area until Monday night. Highs will remain
warm, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs
ranging from lower to middle 80s west to near 90 SE.

Convective rain chances should be limited to the far southern
coastal plain (Sampson County), where moderate instability and deep
layer shear ~ 30 kts could support an isolated strong storm.
Otherwise, much of the area will stay dry.

By Monday night, noticeably cooler and drier air will advect in with
lows in the mid to upper 50s north to lower/mid 60s south.
Increasing mid and high clouds will accompany the settling
upper trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

* A period of well below average temperatures expected.

* A chance of precipitation late Thursday through Friday, otherwise
  dry.

Upper level low centered over Quebec early Tuesday will continue to
shift northeast. As the associated deep trough slowly shifts across
the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon,
another trough will move in right behind in  moving across the
region Thursday evening Friday evening.

As the surface cold front shifts offshore, strong high pressure will
build in to the region with much cooler and drier air. Central NC is
expected to be dry and cool for much of the week. As high pressure
shifts of the coast Thursday afternoon, increased moisture will be
over the area. Precipitation chances increase 15-20% early Friday
morning through late evening as the upper trough moves across the
region. For now, expecting some light on and off showers Friday with
the best chance south of the Triangle region. Over the weekend
expect mostly dry and cool conditions.

Temperatures will feel like fall as highs will generally be in the
mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be refreshing with
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions should prevail over the majority of the TAF period.
This afternoon, scattered showers and potential thunderstorms may
impact the Triad terminals (INT/GSO) ahead of an approaching cold
front. Rain chances look to die off before they approach the other
TAF terminals. However, could result in a few brief sub-VFR
restrictions if a storm directly impacts a terminal. The frontal
passage will bring a wind shift to northwesterly as it passes
through the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across
central NC.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail for much of the extended
period. The best chance for showers/storms should be Friday as the
upper level trough swings through the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Helock