064
FXUS62 KRAH 032300
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably strong and warm, sub-tropical high pressure will extend
westward across the South Atlantic states through Sunday. A cold
front moving through Sunday and Monday will then bring below normal
temperatures for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Aloft, central NC remains on the nrn periphery of a sub-tropical
high, which will strengthen as it sits off the Southeast US coast
through tonight. At the surface, as of 18Z what was left of the
wedge has eroded, with sly to sswly flow advecting warm, moist air
into the area. A SW-NE oriented axis of showers is blossoming along
a differential heating boundary, where cloud cover has kept
temperatures lower (low-mid 70s, with low-mid 80s east of there)
between Winston-Salem and Raleigh. Forecast soundings off the HRRR
and RAP, as well as the SPC mesoanalysis, show 1000-1500 J/Kg of
MLCAPE and 30-45 kts effective shear in that same area. Given the
above, have kept the slight chance of thunder through the aft/early
eve. Temperatures may still rise a couple/few degrees, with highs
near 80 degrees over the far nrn and nwrn Piedmont to mid/upper 80s
elsewhere. Lows tonight generally in the mid 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

On Friday morning, a nearly stationary front will extend from New
Jersey into Kentucky and southwest into Texas. The front is expected
to slide from northern Virginia into southern Virginia during the
afternoon, then inch back to the north overnight. Many deterministic
models show isolated precipitation during the day in various places,
but considering a lack of agreement in location, was not willing to
put any precipitation into the forecast during the daytime. However,
the SREF, GEFS, and EPS all show good agreement that precipitation
across southeastern Virginia could dip a bit farther into North
Carolina during the evening, and have increased both the coverage
and probability of precipitation across that area. The sky cover in
the morning will likely be a little greater than previously
forecast, although clouds should be clearing in the afternoon. As a
result, dropped high temperatures by a degree or two from the
inherited forecast, which means record highs have less of a chance
of being reached at GSO and RDU - FAY`s record high always appeared
to be out of reach. See the Climate section for more information.
Low temperatures Friday night should uniformly be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...

* Near-record temperatures this weekend, with temperatures about 15-
  20 degrees above normal.

* Marginal risk of excessive rain Sunday through Monday associated
  with a cold frontal passage.

* Below normal conditions return to begin the work week with
  frost/freeze conditions possible Tuesday night.

Saturday will be warm and dry with southerly flow on the back side
of high pressure located off the Atlantic coast. High temperatures
are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s, while low
temperatures should be in the mid to upper 60s Saturday night. This
should near record high minimum temperatures.

A cold front will approach the region from the west on Sunday. The
GFS, European, and Canadian ensembles have been slowing down the
passage of the front to Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the
front, winds are expected to be gusty, with gusts potentially
reaching a peak of 35-40 mph Sunday afternoon. The fropa will also
bring the next chance of rain from Sunday night into Monday
afternoon. There is a potential for some thunder with the rain, but
instability does not look to be conducive for severe storms, with
ensembles showing CAPE overall less than 500 J/kg. The greater risk
with this system seems to be a flooding threat, with the WPC placing
the region in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall and ensembles
showing the region receiving between 1-2 inches of rain.
Temperatures on Sunday should be about 15-20 degrees above normal
with pre-frontal southerly winds, while temperatures fall to near
normal Monday and Monday night.

A reinforcing, dry cold front will push through the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to fall about 10 to 15
degrees below normal. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid to upper
50s, while lows will dip into the low to mid 30s and maybe even into
the upper 20s in the coldest spots. This should cause freeze/frost
concerns Tuesday night. As the high moves eastward to our north
through the rest of the extended period, temperatures will moderate
some, reaching highs in the mid to upper 60s by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM Thursday...

Occasional showers continue to develop along a differential heating
boundary located roughly along I-85 this evening, although areal
coverage has decreased over the last hour with the gradual loss of
daytime heating. Nearly all guidance keeps the area precip-free
after 01Z, and I will keep the TAFs dry. All TAF sites have
recovered to VFR and should stay as such through at least midnight.
Cloud cover will return once again tonight, first in the form of
cirrus from convection across the TN valley, then low clouds and due
to onshore flow and weak isentropic ascent. Once again, IFR or lower
cigs expected across the western Piedmont, with low MVFR cigs
possible elsewhere. Cigs should mix out to VFR by late morning with
VFR continuing through the afternoon hours.

Winds during the entire 24 hour period will remain somewhat
elevated, with occasional gustiness to around 18-20kts possible for
the remainder of the evening and early overnight hours. Following a
few hours of steady 8-10kt sustained winds overnight, similar
southwesterly gusts should return Friday afternoon.

Toward the tail end of the TAF period, we will watch a backdoor cold
front approach the area, then stall just to our north. Will leave
precip out of the TAFs, as better precip chances will be confined to
the NC/VA border and points north.

Outlook: IFR/MVFR ceilings possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. A
strong cold front will approach the area late Sunday into Monday,
and will be slow to move through NC. This will result in a prolonged
possibility of non-VFR weather. Conditions should improve from
Tuesday onward as cool high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/Green
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Leins
CLIMATE...NWS