351
FXUS62 KRAH 011905
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build across the region through tonight.
This high will push offshore on Wednesday, as a warm front lifts
slowly northward through the area. This will start a gradual warmup
that will last into early Sunday. Our next storm system will move
into the area Sunday afternoon, then move slowly through the region
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

High pressure is currently centered over Ontario with ridging
extending south-southeast into the Carolinas. The high is expected
to slide to the southeast this afternoon and tonight, which will
slowly turn the wind from the north to the east by midnight.
Although this will not result in much of a difference with the
surface dewpoint, the easterly flow will bring additional moisture
into central North Carolina, and low clouds should increase in
coverage. While locations to the east such as Roanoke Rapids, Rocky
Mountain, and Clinton should remain partly cloudy overnight, expect
mostly cloudy skies in Wadesboro and Winston-Salem by daybreak.
Overnight lows will range from the low 40s in the northeast to the
low 50s in the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Strong and expansive mid level ridging will continue to build over
and off the Southeast coast Wed, resulting in a closed anticyclone E
of FL Wed night. At the surface, high pressure centered well to our
N over Quebec will extend weakly into central and eastern NC early
Wed, with slowly waning influence through Wed and Wed night as the
high`s center tracks NE over E Canada away from NC. The moist
upglide which ramps up quickly in the predawn hours over the
Sandhills and W Piedmont at 285-300K will persist through Wed,
focused along a sloped frontal zone lifting NNE through the region,
resulting in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies in the NW and partly
cloudy SE. Patchy light rain or drizzle remains possible,
particularly focused along this frontal zone in areas W of Hwy 1.
Hydrometeors will be small given the lack of saturation aloft, so
any precip should be very light, which is supported by HREF
measurable rain chances which are very low and confined to the far
NW. The strengthening SSE/SE flow riding atop the low level stable
pool deposited by the exiting high and resultant clouds and this
light precip potential should help lock in the cooler stable air
through much of the day over the NW Piedmont, with the in situ wedge
regime reinforced through differential thermal advection in the
vertical. As a result, while highs are likely to reach into the 70-
75 range from the Triangle S and E, the far NW Piedmont including
the Triad should see highs in the 60-65 range with reduced
insolation. The surface ridge will be rather transitory, propelled
in part by a polar stream low tracking ENE over the Upper Midwest
and S Ontario, so the lingering stable pool in the NW should
eventually succumb to the elevated/deepening WAA late Wed.
Widespread stratocu is likely to form areawide Wed night, with
strong low level WAA leading to steady or slowly rising temps (the
latter particularly in the NW) overnight. Lows, which may occur in
the evening, will range from around 60 to the mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

A generally low-pop/QPF period with near-record warmth (see climate
section below) is expected through Saturday night, with good rain
chances Sun/Mon followed by dry and more seasonable weather Tue.

Thu-Fri: Subtropical ridging will hold off the Southeast/Mid
Atlantic coast through late week, with southerly low-level flow
persisting over the Gulf states, Southeast, and Carolinas, and a
surface frontal zone situated to our W and N around the periphery of
the ridge. The warm and dry capping in our mid levels will stave off
any deep convection, but shots of moist upglide and shallow
convection will necessitate leaving a small chance of showers over
the NW CWA Thu. Models still show a potent polar stream shortwave
trough crossing SE Canada Thu night/Fri which will nudge the front
southward toward the VA/NC border Fri/Fri night. While large scale
forcing for ascent near this front will be small to absent, a ribbon
of PW near 1.5" in its vicinity along with sufficient heating for a
window of marginal to moderate MUCAPE should support a period of
chance pops Fri aftn/night. Steady WAA will push thicknesses up to
40-50 m above normal, indicating highs in the 80s to around 90 both
days, with mild lows in the 60s.

Sat-Tue: The surface front will head back well to our N early Sat,
keeping us in an anomalously warm regime. A strong and digging polar
stream trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region and Northeast
over the weekend, which along with the ejection of shortwave energy
from the Desert Southwest low into the Southern Plains and Mid Miss
Valley will gradually flatten our anticyclonic flow aloft, with
increasing SW steering flow into the Carolinas. We may see a few
light showers in the N/NW Sat/Sat night, but the best chance for
prefrontal convection still looks to be late Sun afternoon through
Sun night, and will continue focus the highest pops then, peaking at
likely for now until timing and amounts come into better focus.
Polar and southern stream phasing appear likely, culminating in
positively tilted longwave troughing from Quebec to TX Mon, and
having the steering flow likely to be roughly parallel to the cold
front should result in a slow frontal movement through NC, and will
leave in a chance of rain esp E Mon. Cool and dense high pressure
building in from the Midwest should finally push the front to our SE
by Tue, leading to clearing skies. Expect highs once again in the
80s to around 90 Sat/Sun, then back down to near normal Mon, in the
mid 60s to lower 70s, then 60s areawide Tue. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: Depending on the terminal, VFR conditions are forecast
for a majority of, if not the entire period. Some scattered mid
level clouds will continue at FAY/RWI this afternoon, with only
scattered high clouds at the other three terminals. As northerly
flow weakens and turns to the east this evening, additional moisture
should allow for MVFR cigs to develop, although the 18Z TAF package
delays the arrival of these clouds at INT/GSO/FAY compared to the
previous package. In addition, have added IFR ceilings after 12Z at
INT/GSO.

Outlook: MVFR ceilings are expected to spread east Wednesday
afternoon, reaching RDU and RWI, with widespread IFR ceilings in
light rain or drizzle Wednesday night. Another round of restrictions
are possible Thursday night. The next chance for showers at all
terminals will come Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH