098
FXUS62 KRAH 101107
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
707 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off southeast Canada will extend down through
central North Carolina through the rest of the weekend. This high
pressure ridge will gradually weaken and move further offshore by
Monday, allowing for a return to more typical summertime weather,
with scattered late-day showers and storms into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

* Rain chances rise from S to N today, although the VA border
  counties should stay mostly dry.

The surface ridge centered off New England will continue to extend
through our area today, albeit with a slow weakening. The latest
models show a northward drift of the higher/above normal PW values
into the Hwy 64 corridor through tonight, in tandem with the
northward push of the 850 mb warm frontal zone, drawing better Gulf-
and Atlantic-source moisture northward. After patchy daybreak fog,
some heating is expected, esp across the N, although projected
SBCAPE values will remain generally modest across the area, under
500 J/kg, and bulk shear will be very poor. But CAMs and large scale
models show remnant MCVs from ongoing convection off the SC and srn
NC coast spreading NNW into our S and SE later today. This energy
should dwindle the further north it gets, as it initially fights the
drier air in place across our N as noted on WV imagery, with weak
flow yielding low DPVA. Will have rain chances spreading into areas
S and E of Raleigh mainly this afternoon, with low chances N ranging
to a period of likely pops in Sampson co. Any storms should be
moving, limiting the threat for heavy rainfall totals in any one
spot, but areas S of line from Albemarle to Wilson could see a third
of an inch to near one inch today given the deepening moisture flux
and advection of 2+ inch PW into this area. Pops should back off to
lower values with loss of heating staring this evening, but will
maintain low chances for showers overnight over all but the far N as
CAMs have lingering spotty precip within the higher PW environment.
Expect highs in the low-mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around
70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

* Rain chances increase, and pockets of locally heavy rainfall are
  possible.

Our steering flow remains weak but becomes more WNW Mon/Mon night, a
function of a deep low out over the NW Atlantic and flat ridging to
its south, extending from south of Bermuda westward into FL/FA/SC.
The surface high will remain centered off the Northeast coast Mon
but continue to weaken with decreasing low level stability over
central NC, as the column continues to steadily moisten,
particularly in the low levels. PW isn`t expected to be extreme but
will be above normal over all but the far NW, with 2+ inch values
penetrating well NW through our area. RAP soundings show a deep warm-
cloud (LCL-0C) layer reaching 4 km or more, favoring warm rain
processes, and the poor bulk shear and weak mid level flow suggest
that any showers and storms may meander and congeal into clusters,
boosting the risk of locally excessive rainfall given the slow and
outflow-driven cell motion. The latest individual CAMs disagree on
exact placement of storm clusters, but all show the potential for
isolated higher totals, as do products like the HREF LPMM which has
a few spots of multi-inch amounts. Expect pops to ramp up in the
morning, esp SE and far S, culminating in likely to categorical pops
Mon afternoon into early evening, highest pops in the Coastal Plain
and Sandhills. SBCAPE is likely to peak near 1000 J/kg, and given
the low shear and likely sub-1k DCAPE, severe weather isn`t
anticipated, although certainly some higher gusts near storms are
possible. Cloud cover and rain chances will hold down the diurnal
temp range, with highs expected to only reach around 80 to the lower
80s. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

Mid-level ridging will extend into the Southeast US on Tuesday,
before getting suppressed to the south on Wednesday and Thursday as
a pair of shortwaves moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast US.
Broad ridging will then set up over the Central and Eastern US on
Friday and Saturday as the subtropical high slowly drifting westward
along the Gulf Coast merges with a ridge originating from the
Southwest US. At the surface, a weak high to our east will move
farther east into the western Atlantic as a stronger high moves east
across southern Canada. A lee trough will set up over the Mid-
Atlantic through at least Thursday. Any fronts and widespread upper
forcing will stay to our north, but there will be moderate
instability and above-normal PW values each day as SW flow aloft
around the subtropical high results in a constant feed of moisture
into the region. So the extended period will feature typical diurnal
summertime convection with POPs mostly in the chance (30-50%) range
each afternoon and evening, highest in the south and east. POPs are
less in the overnight and morning hours due to loss of heating.
Organized severe weather is not expected to be a concern as there
will be weak flow and a lack of shear. While average QPF each day is
not impressive, any spots that receive multiple showers or storms
could have a localized flash flood risk.

High temperatures will increase from slightly below normal (lower-to-
mid-80s) on Tuesday to slightly above normal (upper-80s to lower-
90s) on Thursday. The hottest day of the period looks to be
Thursday, and dew points in the 70s mean heat indices as high as the
low-100s will be possible in the SE, but Heat Advisory criteria is
still not expected to be met. Ridging from the cool high over SE
Canada may extend far enough down the Eastern Seaboard to bring a
slight drop in temperatures back to near normal on Friday and
Saturday. Lows will be in the upper-60s to mid-70s through the
period, warmest on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 705 AM Sunday...

Some IFR/MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities have spread into the
Coastal Plain and far NE Piedmont early this morning, including at
RWI. So prevail MVFR with a TEMPO group for IFR at RWI until late
morning. While MVFR hasn`t reached FAY yet, guidance shows it still
may get just far enough NW to reach there this morning, but it has
been slow to expand up to this point. So have a TEMPO group there
from 12-16z for this potential, but confidence is fairly low. VFR
should prevail elsewhere, and it should largely prevail everywhere
this afternoon. However, scattered showers and storms will be
possible in the south and east (including FAY and RWI). MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities will then move in from SE to NW this
evening and overnight, with restrictions likely to be much more
widespread than this morning. LIFR conditions will even be possible.
Isolated showers also can`t be ruled out overnight especially in the
south.

Outlook: A pattern of diurnally driven showers/storms returns
through the extended period. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible each day. Patchy fog and/or low stratus will
also be possible each morning, especially in areas where rain falls
the day before.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Danco/Helock