Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
511
UXUS97 KPUB 081224
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0524 MST Wednesday, January 8, 2025
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Wednesday, January 8, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 32.6 F/0.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 417 ft/min (2.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14575 ft MSL (6963 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 38.0 F/3.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11491 ft MSL (3879 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 01/09..... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:18:09 / 16:54:15 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 36 min 6 sec (576 min 6 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:06:12 MST... 28.88 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 01/08/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 16566 ft MSL (8954 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15913 ft MSL (8301 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +10.8
K index......................... -21.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.8 -66.6 325 22 11 1.5 0.8 M M M M M
45000 -52.5 -62.5 320 18 9 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
40000 -51.9 -61.4 355 23 12 0.3 0.2 M M M M M
38000 -51.8 -61.2 015 28 15 0.1 0.1 M M M M M
36000 -51.7 -61.1 035 39 20 0.1 0.1 M M M M M
34000 -51.5 -60.7 045 53 27 3.3 1.8 M M M M M
32000 -48.5 -55.3 050 66 34 5.0 2.7 M M M M M
30000 -45.5 -49.9 050 78 40 6.7 3.7 24.8 76.7 16.4 M M
29000 -43.3 -45.9 050 77 39 7.3 4.0 23.7 74.7 15.8 M M
28000 -41.1 -42.0 050 75 39 7.3 4.0 22.8 73.0 15.2 M M
27000 -38.9 -38.0 050 74 38 7.4 4.0 21.9 71.5 14.8 M M
26000 -37.2 -35.0 050 67 34 5.0 2.7 20.4 68.8 13.8 M M
25000 -35.7 -32.3 050 56 29 5.0 2.7 18.6 65.5 12.4 M M
24000 -34.2 -29.6 050 45 23 4.9 2.7 17.0 62.5 11.2 M M
23000 -32.9 -27.2 045 35 18 3.4 1.9 14.9 58.9 9.7 M M
22000 -31.7 -25.1 030 21 11 3.3 1.8 12.0 53.6 7.4 M M
21000 -30.7 -23.3 360 13 7 4.9 2.7 9.9 49.8 5.6 M M
20000 -28.8 -19.8 340 14 7 6.5 3.5 8.6 47.5 4.6 M M
19500 -27.8 -18.0 330 14 7 6.5 3.6 8.1 46.5 4.1 M M
19000 -26.8 -16.2 325 15 8 6.5 3.6 7.5 45.5 3.7 M M
18500 -25.9 -14.6 315 16 8 6.9 3.8 7.0 44.6 3.2 M M
18000 -24.8 -12.6 315 17 9 7.3 4.0 6.6 43.9 2.9 M M
17500 -23.7 -10.7 315 17 9 7.3 4.0 6.2 43.1 2.5 M M
17000 -22.6 -8.7 315 17 9 7.3 4.0 5.8 42.4 2.2 M M
16500 -21.5 -6.7 320 16 8 7.3 4.0 5.4 41.7 1.8 M M
16000 -20.4 -4.7 320 15 8 6.7 3.6 4.9 40.9 1.4 M M
15500 -19.4 -2.9 320 15 8 6.6 3.6 4.4 39.9 0.9 M M
15000 -18.5 -1.3 315 15 8 6.3 3.5 3.9 39.0 0.5 M M
14500 -17.5 0.5 315 15 8 6.3 3.4 3.3 37.9 -0.1 611 3.1
14000 -16.6 2.1 315 15 8 6.6 3.6 2.7 36.9 -0.6 568 2.9
13500 -15.6 3.9 310 15 8 7.0 3.8 2.3 36.1 -1.1 523 2.7
13000 -14.6 5.7 305 16 8 7.1 3.9 1.9 35.3 -1.5 477 2.4
12500 -13.5 7.7 305 15 8 7.1 3.9 1.4 34.6 -1.9 431 2.2
12000 -12.5 9.5 300 15 8 6.6 3.6 1.0 33.8 -2.4 386 2.0
11750 -12.0 10.4 300 15 7 6.3 3.5 0.7 33.3 -2.7 364 1.9
11500 -11.6 11.1 300 14 7 6.4 3.5 0.5 32.8 -2.9 343 1.7
11250 -11.1 12.0 295 14 7 6.3 3.5 0.2 32.4 -3.2 322 1.6
11000 -10.7 12.7 295 13 7 5.8 3.2 -0.1 31.9 -3.5 301 1.5
10750 -10.2 13.6 290 13 7 5.3 2.9 -0.4 31.2 -3.8 281 1.4
10500 -9.8 14.4 290 12 6 5.7 3.1 -0.8 30.6 -4.2 261 1.3
10250 -9.4 15.1 285 12 6 4.6 2.5 -1.1 30.1 -4.5 242 1.2
10000 -9.1 15.6 285 11 6 4.2 2.3 -1.5 29.3 -4.9 225 1.1
9750 -8.8 16.2 280 11 6 4.9 2.7 -1.9 28.5 -5.3 207 1.1
9500 -8.4 16.9 275 10 5 4.8 2.6 -2.3 27.9 -5.7 189 1.0
9250 -8.1 17.4 270 10 5 4.4 2.4 -2.7 27.2 -6.1 171 0.9
9000 -7.8 18.0 270 10 5 2.9 1.6 -3.1 26.4 -6.6 155 0.8
8750 -7.6 18.3 265 10 5 2.6 1.4 -3.7 25.4 -7.1 142 0.7
8500 -7.4 18.7 260 10 5 1.8 1.0 -4.2 24.4 -7.7 129 0.7
8250 -7.3 18.9 260 10 5 2.0 1.1 -4.9 23.2 -8.4 119 0.6
8000 -7.6 18.3 260 9 5 -17.4 -9.5 -5.9 21.4 -9.4 121 0.6
7750 -10.3 13.5 260 8 4 -52.5 -28.8 -9.4 15.2 -12.9 194 1.0
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
01/08/2025 at 0800 MST | 01/08/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.5
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -43.6 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -51.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.0 -65.2 325 19 10 1.2 0.7 | -54.7 -66.5 325 20 10 1.4 0.7
45000 -52.2 -62.0 320 19 10 1.0 0.6 | -52.7 -62.9 325 18 10 -1.1 -0.6
40000 -53.9 -65.0 010 25 13 -1.1 -0.6 | -56.5 -69.7 015 26 13 -2.5 -1.4
38000 -54.2 -65.6 030 33 17 0.2 0.1 | -56.7 -70.1 030 30 16 2.1 1.2
36000 -54.1 -65.4 050 46 24 0.2 0.1 | -55.4 -67.7 045 35 18 2.1 1.2
34000 -53.6 -64.5 055 61 31 6.7 3.7 | -53.8 -64.8 055 42 22 7.6 4.2
32000 -49.3 -56.7 055 64 33 7.1 3.9 | -48.6 -55.5 055 45 23 7.8 4.3
30000 -45.0 -49.0 050 67 34 7.7 4.2 | -43.8 -46.8 050 46 24 8.0 4.4
29000 -42.7 -44.9 050 65 33 7.6 4.2 | -41.4 -42.5 050 44 23 8.0 4.4
28000 -40.4 -40.7 050 63 32 7.6 4.2 | -39.1 -38.4 050 43 22 8.0 4.4
27000 -38.1 -36.6 045 61 31 7.4 4.1 | -36.7 -34.1 050 41 21 7.7 4.2
26000 -35.5 -31.9 050 60 31 9.0 4.9 | -34.5 -30.1 050 39 20 7.3 4.0
25000 -32.8 -27.0 050 58 30 9.0 4.9 | -32.3 -26.1 055 37 19 7.3 4.0
24000 -30.1 -22.2 055 57 29 9.2 5.1 | -30.1 -22.2 055 35 18 7.3 4.0
23000 -28.0 -18.4 055 50 26 4.1 2.2 | -27.8 -18.0 055 33 17 7.8 4.3
22000 -26.8 -16.2 055 43 22 4.1 2.3 | -25.4 -13.7 055 30 16 7.8 4.3
21000 -25.6 -14.1 055 36 18 4.1 2.2 | -23.1 -9.6 055 28 14 6.1 3.4
20000 -24.3 -11.7 050 29 15 4.0 2.2 | -21.9 -7.4 050 25 13 4.1 2.2
19500 -23.7 -10.7 045 26 13 4.0 2.2 | -21.2 -6.2 050 23 12 4.1 2.2
19000 -23.1 -9.6 040 22 12 4.1 2.2 | -20.6 -5.1 045 22 11 4.1 2.2
18500 -22.5 -8.5 035 19 10 4.3 2.4 | -19.7 -3.5 045 20 10 4.6 2.5
18000 -21.8 -7.2 030 17 9 4.6 2.5 | -19.0 -2.2 040 18 9 4.7 2.6
17500 -21.1 -6.0 020 14 7 4.6 2.5 | -18.3 -0.9 035 16 8 4.8 2.6
17000 -20.4 -4.7 010 13 7 5.4 3.0 | -17.6 0.3 030 15 8 4.9 2.7
16500 -19.6 -3.3 355 13 6 5.3 2.9 | -16.8 1.8 020 13 7 4.9 2.7
16000 -18.7 -1.7 345 13 7 6.0 3.3 | -16.1 3.0 010 12 6 4.7 2.6
15500 -17.8 -0.0 340 13 7 6.1 3.3 | -15.4 4.3 360 12 6 4.7 2.6
15000 -16.9 1.6 330 13 7 6.7 3.6 | -14.6 5.7 350 12 6 5.7 3.1
14500 -15.8 3.6 330 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -13.8 7.2 340 12 6 5.8 3.2
14000 -14.8 5.4 330 14 7 6.6 3.6 | -12.9 8.8 335 12 6 5.9 3.2
13500 -13.8 7.2 330 14 7 6.3 3.4 | -12.0 10.4 330 12 6 6.0 3.3
13000 -12.9 8.8 330 14 7 5.9 3.2 | -11.1 12.0 325 12 6 5.8 3.2
12500 -12.1 10.2 330 13 7 5.5 3.0 | -10.3 13.5 320 12 6 5.6 3.1
12000 -11.3 11.7 325 13 6 5.6 3.1 | -9.4 15.1 315 12 6 5.1 2.8
11750 -10.9 12.4 325 12 6 5.7 3.1 | -9.1 15.6 315 11 6 4.5 2.5
11500 -10.4 13.3 325 12 6 5.5 3.0 | -8.7 16.3 310 11 6 4.9 2.7
11250 -10.0 14.0 325 11 6 7.4 4.0 | -8.3 17.1 310 11 6 7.0 3.8
11000 -9.4 15.1 320 11 6 7.2 4.0 | -7.8 18.0 310 11 5 6.4 3.5
10750 -9.0 15.8 320 11 6 5.8 3.2 | -7.4 18.7 305 10 5 4.9 2.7
10500 -8.5 16.7 320 11 5 5.5 3.0 | -7.0 19.4 305 10 5 4.7 2.6
10250 -8.1 17.4 315 10 5 8.2 4.5 | -6.6 20.1 300 10 5 7.2 4.0
10000 -7.4 18.7 315 10 5 8.2 4.5 | -6.0 21.2 295 10 5 8.4 4.6
9750 -7.0 19.4 310 10 5 5.2 2.8 | -5.5 22.1 295 9 5 6.3 3.4
9500 -6.5 20.3 310 9 5 6.3 3.5 | -5.0 23.0 290 9 5 7.4 4.0
9250 -6.1 21.0 310 9 5 4.7 2.6 | -4.5 23.9 285 9 5 5.2 2.9
9000 -5.8 21.6 305 9 5 3.7 2.0 | -4.2 24.4 285 9 4 5.4 3.0
8750 -5.5 22.1 300 9 5 4.4 2.4 | -3.7 25.3 280 8 4 7.4 4.1
8500 -5.2 22.6 295 9 5 3.9 2.2 | -3.2 26.2 280 8 4 7.2 4.0
8250 -5.0 23.0 295 9 5 1.9 1.0 | -2.7 27.1 275 8 4 6.2 3.4
8000 -5.4 22.3 290 9 5 -21.1 -11.6 | -2.2 28.0 270 7 3 10.5 5.7
7750 -8.4 16.9 280 8 4 -54.7 -30.0 | -1.0 30.2 265 6 3 20.9 11.5
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
01/08/2025 at 1400 MST | 01/08/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.1
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -43.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -29.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.9 -68.6 330 19 10 1.4 0.8 | -55.5 -67.9 335 22 11 1.3 0.7
45000 -53.8 -64.8 315 22 11 0.2 0.1 | -53.5 -64.3 335 22 11 -1.1 -0.6
40000 -57.4 -71.3 010 22 11 -2.4 -1.3 | -56.2 -69.2 340 16 8 -1.8 -1.0
38000 -57.2 -71.0 025 24 12 3.0 1.7 | -56.3 -69.3 345 15 8 2.1 1.2
36000 -55.4 -67.7 030 25 13 3.0 1.7 | -55.0 -67.0 350 15 7 2.1 1.2
34000 -53.0 -63.4 040 26 13 8.6 4.7 | -53.4 -64.1 355 14 7 7.9 4.4
32000 -48.1 -54.6 035 27 14 8.2 4.5 | -48.1 -54.6 360 14 7 7.8 4.3
30000 -43.2 -45.8 035 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -43.4 -46.1 360 14 7 7.7 4.2
29000 -40.8 -41.4 040 26 13 7.8 4.3 | -41.1 -42.0 005 13 7 7.7 4.2
28000 -38.5 -37.3 045 25 13 7.8 4.3 | -38.8 -37.8 005 12 6 7.7 4.2
27000 -36.1 -33.0 050 24 12 7.7 4.2 | -36.5 -33.7 005 11 6 7.9 4.3
26000 -34.0 -29.2 050 23 12 7.1 3.9 | -34.0 -29.2 005 10 5 8.2 4.5
25000 -31.8 -25.2 055 21 11 7.2 3.9 | -31.6 -24.9 010 9 5 8.2 4.5
24000 -29.7 -21.5 055 20 10 7.0 3.9 | -29.1 -20.4 010 8 4 8.2 4.5
23000 -26.7 -16.1 050 18 9 8.1 4.4 | -26.8 -16.2 005 8 4 7.7 4.2
22000 -24.3 -11.7 045 17 9 8.1 4.5 | -24.5 -12.1 360 8 4 7.7 4.2
21000 -22.0 -7.6 040 16 8 5.8 3.2 | -22.2 -8.0 355 8 4 7.3 4.0
20000 -20.3 -4.5 035 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -20.2 -4.4 350 11 5 6.6 3.6
19500 -19.4 -2.9 030 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -18.8 -1.8 350 13 7 6.6 3.6
19000 -18.6 -1.5 025 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -17.8 -0.0 350 14 7 6.6 3.6
18500 -17.8 -0.0 025 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -16.8 1.8 345 15 8 6.5 3.6
18000 -16.9 1.6 020 16 8 5.4 2.9 | -15.8 3.6 345 16 8 6.5 3.6
17500 -16.1 3.0 020 15 8 5.4 2.9 | -14.8 5.4 345 16 8 6.5 3.6
17000 -15.3 4.5 020 14 7 5.3 2.9 | -13.8 7.2 345 16 8 6.4 3.5
16500 -14.5 5.9 015 14 7 5.3 2.9 | -12.9 8.8 345 15 8 6.5 3.6
16000 -13.7 7.3 010 13 7 5.1 2.8 | -12.0 10.4 345 15 8 5.6 3.1
15500 -13.0 8.6 360 13 6 5.1 2.8 | -11.1 12.0 345 15 7 5.6 3.0
15000 -12.2 10.0 355 12 6 4.8 2.6 | -10.3 13.5 340 14 7 5.2 2.9
14500 -11.5 11.3 350 12 6 4.6 2.5 | -9.6 14.7 340 14 7 5.0 2.7
14000 -10.8 12.6 340 12 6 4.7 2.6 | -8.8 16.2 335 13 7 4.7 2.6
13500 -10.1 13.8 335 12 6 5.0 2.7 | -8.2 17.2 335 12 6 4.2 2.3
13000 -9.4 15.1 330 12 6 5.5 3.0 | -7.5 18.5 330 12 6 4.7 2.6
12500 -8.4 16.9 325 11 6 5.9 3.3 | -6.7 19.9 325 11 6 5.6 3.1
12000 -7.6 18.3 310 10 5 5.3 2.9 | -5.9 21.4 310 9 5 5.3 2.9
11750 -7.2 19.0 305 10 5 4.9 2.7 | -5.5 22.1 305 9 5 5.1 2.8
11500 -6.8 19.8 300 10 5 4.8 2.6 | -5.1 22.8 300 9 5 5.0 2.8
11250 -6.5 20.3 300 11 5 5.0 2.8 | -4.8 23.4 300 9 5 5.2 2.8
11000 -6.1 21.0 290 11 6 4.7 2.6 | -4.4 24.1 295 9 5 5.1 2.8
10750 -5.8 21.6 290 12 6 4.4 2.4 | -4.0 24.8 290 10 5 4.6 2.5
10500 -5.5 22.1 285 12 6 3.8 2.1 | -3.7 25.3 290 10 5 5.0 2.7
10250 -5.2 22.6 280 12 6 6.4 3.5 | -3.4 25.9 285 11 6 3.3 1.8
10000 -4.6 23.7 275 13 6 8.4 4.6 | -3.2 26.2 285 12 6 3.3 1.8
9750 -4.0 24.8 275 12 6 7.8 4.3 | -2.9 26.8 280 13 7 6.2 3.4
9500 -3.5 25.7 270 11 6 6.8 3.7 | -2.5 27.5 275 14 7 5.9 3.2
9250 -2.9 26.8 265 10 5 11.3 6.2 | -2.0 28.4 270 16 8 8.1 4.5
9000 -1.9 28.6 260 10 5 11.9 6.5 | -1.3 29.7 270 17 9 9.4 5.2
8750 -1.3 29.7 255 9 4 7.5 4.1 | -0.7 30.7 265 16 8 7.2 4.0
8500 -0.7 30.7 250 8 4 9.1 5.0 | -0.2 31.6 265 16 8 9.1 5.0
8250 -0.0 32.0 245 7 4 7.3 4.0 | 0.4 32.7 260 15 8 3.0 1.6
8000 0.5 32.9 235 6 3 10.0 5.5 | 0.1 32.2 255 14 7 -10.4 -5.7
7750 1.6 34.9 230 6 3 18.3 10.1 | -1.0 30.2 245 9 5 -14.4 -7.9
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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