Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
405
UXUS97 KPUB 221439
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0739 MST Wednesday, January 22, 2025
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Wednesday, January 22, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 25.2 F/-3.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 372 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13867 ft MSL (6242 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 28.0 F/-2.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8433 ft MSL (808 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 01/23..... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:12:49 / 17:09:11 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 56 min 22 sec (596 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:11:00 MST... 31.48 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 01/22/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 15339 ft MSL (7714 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14797 ft MSL (7172 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +11.5
K index......................... -19.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.2 -67.4 295 31 16 -0.1 -0.1 M M M M M
45000 -55.4 -67.7 290 50 26 -0.1 -0.1 M M M M M
40000 -53.6 -64.5 290 62 32 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
38000 -52.7 -62.9 290 66 34 1.9 1.1 M M M M M
36000 -51.4 -60.5 290 79 41 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
34000 -50.2 -58.4 290 90 46 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
32000 -48.7 -55.7 290 94 48 2.6 1.4 M M M M M
30000 -47.2 -53.0 285 97 50 2.5 1.4 M M M M M
29000 -46.1 -51.0 290 97 50 4.3 2.4 21.2 70.1 18.1 M M
28000 -44.8 -48.6 290 95 49 4.4 2.4 19.0 66.2 16.6 M M
27000 -43.5 -46.3 295 94 48 4.4 2.4 17.0 62.6 15.2 M M
26000 -42.1 -43.8 295 93 48 5.8 3.2 15.2 59.4 14.0 M M
25000 -40.3 -40.5 295 92 47 5.9 3.3 13.7 56.6 12.9 M M
24000 -38.5 -37.3 300 91 47 5.9 3.3 12.3 54.1 11.9 M M
23000 -36.8 -34.2 300 89 46 5.2 2.9 11.0 51.8 11.0 M M
22000 -34.9 -30.8 300 81 42 5.0 2.8 8.8 47.8 9.3 M M
21000 -33.4 -28.1 305 75 38 5.0 2.8 7.2 44.9 8.1 M M
20000 -31.8 -25.2 305 69 35 5.3 2.9 5.6 42.0 6.8 M M
19500 -31.0 -23.8 305 66 34 5.3 2.9 4.8 40.6 6.1 M M
19000 -30.3 -22.5 305 63 33 5.3 2.9 4.0 39.2 5.5 M M
18500 -29.5 -21.1 305 61 31 5.2 2.9 3.3 37.9 4.9 M M
18000 -28.6 -19.5 305 58 30 6.2 3.4 2.6 36.7 4.3 M M
17500 -27.7 -17.9 305 57 30 6.4 3.5 2.0 35.7 3.8 M M
17000 -26.7 -16.1 305 57 29 6.1 3.4 1.5 34.7 3.3 M M
16500 -25.9 -14.6 310 57 29 5.7 3.1 0.8 33.5 2.7 M M
16000 -25.0 -13.0 310 57 29 5.8 3.2 0.2 32.3 2.1 M M
15500 -24.1 -11.4 310 53 27 6.5 3.6 -0.4 31.2 1.6 M M
15000 -23.1 -9.6 310 48 25 6.5 3.6 -1.0 30.3 1.1 M M
14500 -22.2 -8.0 310 46 24 6.6 3.6 -1.5 29.3 0.6 M M
14000 -21.2 -6.2 310 48 25 6.5 3.6 -2.0 28.4 0.1 M M
13500 -20.1 -4.2 310 49 25 7.6 4.2 -2.4 27.7 -0.3 540 2.7
13000 -19.0 -2.2 310 50 26 7.4 4.0 -2.8 27.0 -0.6 491 2.5
12500 -17.8 -0.0 310 51 26 8.6 4.7 -3.0 26.7 -0.8 439 2.2
12000 -16.7 1.9 310 48 25 6.8 3.7 -3.3 26.0 -1.2 392 2.0
11750 -16.2 2.8 310 47 24 8.0 4.4 -3.6 25.6 -1.4 369 1.9
11500 -15.5 4.1 310 45 23 9.3 5.1 -3.6 25.5 -1.5 341 1.7
11250 -14.8 5.4 310 43 22 9.5 5.2 -3.7 25.4 -1.5 313 1.6
11000 -14.1 6.6 310 42 21 9.9 5.4 -3.7 25.4 -1.5 284 1.4
10750 -13.4 7.9 310 40 21 9.6 5.3 -3.7 25.4 -1.5 255 1.3
10500 -12.6 9.3 310 39 20 9.4 5.2 -3.7 25.4 -1.6 226 1.1
10250 -11.9 10.6 310 38 20 9.5 5.2 -3.7 25.3 -1.6 198 1.0
10000 -11.2 11.8 310 37 19 9.5 5.2 -3.7 25.3 -1.6 169 0.9
9750 -10.5 13.1 310 36 19 8.6 4.7 -3.8 25.2 -1.7 141 0.7
9500 -9.9 14.2 310 35 18 8.2 4.5 -3.9 25.0 -1.8 115 0.6
9250 -9.3 15.3 310 33 17 7.9 4.3 -4.0 24.8 -1.9 90 0.5
9000 -8.8 16.2 315 32 16 6.1 3.3 -4.2 24.4 -2.1 66 0.3
8750 -8.4 16.9 315 29 15 5.3 2.9 -4.5 23.8 -2.5 47 0.2
8500 -8.0 17.6 315 27 14 6.4 3.5 -4.8 23.3 -2.8 27 0.1
8250 -7.5 18.5 315 25 13 4.1 2.2 -5.1 22.7 -3.1 6 0.0
8000 -7.6 18.3 315 23 12 -7.3 -4.0 -5.9 21.3 -3.9 1 0.0
7750 -8.6 16.5 315 16 8 -19.4 -10.6 -7.7 18.1 -5.7 25 0.1
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
01/22/2025 at 0800 MST | 01/22/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.0 | CAPE... +18.2 LI... +2.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -11.5 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... -6.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.2 -65.6 305 23 12 -0.0 -0.0 | -53.1 -63.6 290 27 14 1.7 1.0
45000 -54.2 -65.6 300 52 27 -0.0 -0.0 | -50.5 -58.9 300 57 29 1.7 1.0
40000 -50.7 -59.3 285 60 31 2.7 1.5 | -49.9 -57.8 300 60 31 0.1 0.1
38000 -49.2 -56.6 280 63 32 0.7 0.4 | -49.9 -57.8 300 60 31 0.5 0.3
36000 -49.3 -56.7 285 72 37 -0.2 -0.1 | -49.6 -57.3 295 61 31 0.5 0.3
34000 -49.5 -57.1 290 81 42 -0.2 -0.1 | -49.3 -56.7 295 62 32 0.5 0.3
32000 -48.8 -55.8 290 84 43 1.7 0.9 | -48.1 -54.6 295 62 32 2.7 1.5
30000 -47.8 -54.0 290 86 44 1.7 1.0 | -46.5 -51.7 290 62 32 2.7 1.5
29000 -46.9 -52.4 290 85 44 4.2 2.3 | -45.5 -49.9 290 63 32 3.7 2.0
28000 -45.7 -50.3 290 81 42 4.2 2.3 | -44.4 -47.9 290 64 33 3.7 2.0
27000 -44.4 -47.9 295 78 40 4.2 2.3 | -43.3 -45.9 290 64 33 3.7 2.0
26000 -43.2 -45.8 295 74 38 4.0 2.2 | -42.2 -44.0 290 65 34 3.4 1.9
25000 -42.0 -43.6 300 72 37 3.9 2.1 | -41.3 -42.3 290 64 33 3.0 1.7
24000 -40.8 -41.4 300 70 36 3.9 2.1 | -40.2 -40.4 290 61 32 3.0 1.7
23000 -39.7 -39.5 305 68 35 4.1 2.2 | -39.3 -38.7 290 59 30 1.9 1.0
22000 -38.4 -37.1 305 64 33 4.2 2.3 | -38.8 -37.8 295 54 28 1.8 1.0
21000 -36.8 -34.2 310 59 30 4.2 2.3 | -38.2 -36.8 300 49 25 2.0 1.1
20000 -35.3 -31.5 310 55 28 5.9 3.2 | -37.1 -34.8 305 46 24 5.6 3.0
19500 -34.4 -29.9 310 54 28 5.9 3.3 | -36.3 -33.3 305 46 24 5.7 3.1
19000 -33.5 -28.3 310 52 27 5.9 3.3 | -35.4 -31.7 305 46 24 5.7 3.1
18500 -32.6 -26.7 310 51 26 5.9 3.2 | -34.6 -30.3 310 46 24 5.7 3.1
18000 -31.7 -25.1 310 49 25 6.7 3.7 | -33.7 -28.7 310 46 24 5.8 3.2
17500 -30.7 -23.3 310 48 25 6.9 3.8 | -32.8 -27.0 310 47 24 5.9 3.2
17000 -29.6 -21.3 310 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -32.0 -25.6 310 47 24 6.4 3.5
16500 -28.7 -19.7 310 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -30.9 -23.6 310 46 24 7.8 4.3
16000 -27.7 -17.9 310 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -29.7 -21.5 310 45 23 7.8 4.3
15500 -26.8 -16.2 315 47 24 6.3 3.4 | -28.4 -19.1 310 43 22 9.3 5.1
15000 -25.9 -14.6 315 47 24 6.2 3.4 | -27.0 -16.6 310 41 21 9.5 5.2
14500 -24.9 -12.8 315 46 24 7.2 3.9 | -25.8 -14.4 310 39 20 6.7 3.6
14000 -23.8 -10.8 320 45 23 6.9 3.8 | -24.8 -12.6 310 37 19 6.9 3.8
13500 -22.7 -8.9 320 44 23 8.4 4.6 | -23.8 -10.8 315 34 18 6.8 3.7
13000 -21.4 -6.5 320 43 22 8.0 4.4 | -22.8 -9.0 320 31 16 6.5 3.6
12500 -20.0 -4.0 325 43 22 10.8 5.9 | -21.6 -6.9 325 28 14 9.0 4.9
12000 -18.6 -1.5 325 42 21 8.8 4.8 | -20.5 -4.9 330 26 13 6.4 3.5
11750 -17.9 -0.2 325 41 21 9.4 5.1 | -20.0 -4.0 330 25 13 7.9 4.3
11500 -17.2 1.0 325 41 21 10.0 5.5 | -19.3 -2.7 335 25 13 8.8 4.8
11250 -16.5 2.3 325 41 21 9.5 5.2 | -18.7 -1.7 335 24 13 9.4 5.2
11000 -15.8 3.6 325 40 21 9.2 5.0 | -17.9 -0.2 335 24 12 10.4 5.7
10750 -15.1 4.8 325 40 21 8.8 4.8 | -17.2 1.0 340 24 12 8.8 4.8
10500 -14.5 5.9 325 38 20 8.0 4.4 | -16.6 2.1 340 24 12 7.4 4.1
10250 -13.9 7.0 325 37 19 9.4 5.2 | -16.0 3.2 345 24 12 9.3 5.1
10000 -13.1 8.4 320 36 18 10.8 5.9 | -15.2 4.6 345 24 12 11.4 6.2
9750 -12.3 9.9 320 34 18 9.2 5.0 | -14.4 6.1 345 23 12 10.2 5.6
9500 -11.7 10.9 320 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -13.7 7.3 350 23 12 9.0 5.0
9250 -11.1 12.0 320 31 16 8.5 4.7 | -13.0 8.6 350 22 11 10.3 5.7
9000 -10.5 13.1 320 30 15 7.2 4.0 | -12.2 10.0 350 22 11 10.6 5.8
8750 -10.0 14.0 320 28 14 6.2 3.4 | -11.4 11.5 350 21 11 9.8 5.4
8500 -9.5 14.9 320 26 13 7.0 3.8 | -10.7 12.7 350 20 11 9.9 5.5
8250 -9.0 15.8 320 24 12 4.9 2.7 | -9.9 14.2 350 20 10 10.2 5.6
8000 -9.0 15.8 320 22 11 -7.7 -4.2 | -7.8 18.0 355 16 8 20.0 11.0
7750 -10.2 13.6 315 15 8 -22.2 -12.2 | -6.5 20.3 355 14 7 10.3 5.7
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
01/22/2025 at 1400 MST | 01/22/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... +11.1 LI... +0.2 | CAPE... +0.1 LI... +1.1
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -7.3 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... -11.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.5 -64.3 305 34 17 2.1 1.2 | -53.8 -64.8 295 39 20 2.5 1.4
45000 -50.4 -58.7 300 52 27 2.1 1.2 | -50.0 -58.0 305 49 25 2.6 1.4
40000 -49.7 -57.5 300 54 28 0.1 0.1 | -49.6 -57.3 305 53 27 -0.1 -0.1
38000 -49.7 -57.5 300 53 27 0.1 0.1 | -49.7 -57.5 300 54 28 -0.4 -0.2
36000 -49.6 -57.3 300 55 28 0.1 0.1 | -49.9 -57.8 305 52 27 -0.4 -0.2
34000 -49.5 -57.1 300 57 29 0.2 0.1 | -50.1 -58.2 310 51 26 -0.3 -0.2
32000 -47.7 -53.9 295 59 30 4.5 2.4 | -48.8 -55.8 315 48 25 3.4 1.9
30000 -45.0 -49.0 295 60 31 4.4 2.4 | -46.7 -52.1 315 45 23 3.4 1.9
29000 -43.8 -46.8 295 60 31 3.1 1.7 | -45.6 -50.1 315 44 22 4.4 2.4
28000 -42.8 -45.0 295 59 31 3.2 1.7 | -44.2 -47.6 325 42 22 4.4 2.4
27000 -41.9 -43.4 295 58 30 3.2 1.7 | -42.9 -45.2 330 41 21 4.4 2.4
26000 -40.9 -41.6 295 57 29 2.4 1.3 | -41.6 -42.9 335 40 20 3.5 1.9
25000 -41.0 -41.8 295 55 28 -0.8 -0.4 | -41.0 -41.8 340 40 20 1.7 1.0
24000 -41.2 -42.2 300 53 27 -0.8 -0.4 | -40.5 -40.9 345 40 21 1.7 1.0
23000 -41.5 -42.7 305 51 26 -0.6 -0.3 | -40.0 -40.0 355 41 21 1.6 0.9
22000 -41.4 -42.5 305 48 25 0.2 0.1 | -39.5 -39.1 350 39 20 1.3 0.7
21000 -41.4 -42.5 300 45 23 0.4 0.2 | -39.1 -38.4 345 38 19 1.4 0.8
20000 -40.3 -40.5 300 42 22 8.0 4.4 | -38.2 -36.8 335 36 18 4.9 2.7
19500 -39.0 -38.2 300 40 21 8.1 4.4 | -37.4 -35.3 335 35 18 4.9 2.7
19000 -37.8 -36.0 300 39 20 8.1 4.4 | -36.7 -34.1 330 34 17 4.9 2.7
18500 -36.6 -33.9 300 37 19 8.1 4.4 | -36.0 -32.8 325 33 17 4.9 2.7
18000 -35.4 -31.7 300 35 18 9.1 5.0 | -35.2 -31.4 320 32 17 6.8 3.7
17500 -33.9 -29.0 300 34 17 9.7 5.3 | -34.0 -29.2 315 29 15 7.8 4.3
17000 -32.5 -26.5 300 32 17 9.7 5.3 | -32.8 -27.0 305 27 14 7.9 4.3
16500 -31.0 -23.8 300 30 16 9.7 5.3 | -31.6 -24.9 305 27 14 8.1 4.4
16000 -29.6 -21.3 300 28 15 9.7 5.3 | -30.4 -22.7 305 28 15 8.1 4.4
15500 -28.2 -18.8 300 27 14 9.1 5.0 | -29.2 -20.6 310 29 15 8.1 4.4
15000 -26.8 -16.2 300 25 13 9.3 5.1 | -28.0 -18.4 310 30 15 8.0 4.4
14500 -25.6 -14.1 300 24 12 7.5 4.1 | -26.8 -16.2 310 30 16 9.0 4.9
14000 -24.4 -11.9 305 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -25.4 -13.7 315 31 16 8.9 4.9
13500 -23.3 -9.9 310 23 12 6.6 3.6 | -24.1 -11.4 315 31 16 8.4 4.6
13000 -22.3 -8.1 320 23 12 6.6 3.6 | -22.9 -9.2 315 31 16 8.3 4.5
12500 -21.3 -6.3 325 22 11 7.0 3.8 | -21.5 -6.7 320 30 16 9.7 5.3
12000 -20.5 -4.9 330 23 12 5.0 2.7 | -20.3 -4.5 320 29 15 7.2 3.9
11750 -20.1 -4.2 335 23 12 5.3 2.9 | -19.8 -3.6 325 29 15 7.6 4.2
11500 -19.7 -3.5 340 23 12 4.9 2.7 | -19.2 -2.6 325 28 14 7.6 4.2
11250 -19.3 -2.7 340 24 12 6.1 3.3 | -18.6 -1.5 325 28 14 8.0 4.4
11000 -18.8 -1.8 345 24 12 7.6 4.2 | -18.0 -0.4 330 27 14 8.0 4.4
10750 -18.2 -0.8 350 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -17.5 0.5 330 26 14 6.7 3.7
10500 -17.7 0.1 350 24 12 6.5 3.6 | -17.0 1.4 330 26 13 5.8 3.2
10250 -17.2 1.0 350 23 12 7.5 4.1 | -16.6 2.1 330 25 13 6.8 3.7
10000 -16.6 2.1 355 22 11 9.6 5.2 | -16.0 3.2 335 24 13 7.4 4.1
9750 -15.9 3.4 355 22 11 9.6 5.3 | -15.5 4.1 335 24 12 6.3 3.5
9500 -15.2 4.6 355 21 11 8.5 4.6 | -15.1 4.8 335 23 12 6.3 3.4
9250 -14.6 5.7 360 20 10 10.4 5.7 | -14.6 5.7 335 22 11 5.0 2.8
9000 -13.7 7.3 360 19 10 10.9 6.0 | -14.3 6.3 335 22 11 6.4 3.5
8750 -13.0 8.6 360 19 10 9.6 5.3 | -13.7 7.3 340 20 11 8.7 4.8
8500 -12.2 10.0 360 19 10 9.9 5.5 | -13.0 8.6 340 19 10 8.1 4.4
8250 -11.5 11.3 360 18 9 9.9 5.4 | -12.4 9.7 340 18 9 8.4 4.6
8000 -10.7 12.7 360 18 9 14.0 7.7 | -11.9 10.6 340 17 9 6.3 3.5
7750 -9.4 15.1 360 16 8 20.4 11.2 | -11.5 11.3 340 13 7 2.6 1.4
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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