


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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666 FXUS65 KPUB 030517 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1117 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing winds and increasing clouds this evening, then snow showers develop over the higher terrain, mainly after midnight. - Rain/snow showers across much of the area Thursday, greatest chance for accumulations over the mountains and Palmer Divide. - High confidence (60-80 percent) in high impact weather from heavy wet snowfall across the southern mountains into the Raton Mesa Friday night and Saturday. - Warmer and drier weather for the late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Red Flag Warning verifying along the srn I-25 corridor this afternoon, as extremely dry mixes to the surface under brisk wly flow aloft. Still suspect we`re near peak wind now (2pm mdt), as most models show a brief decrease in low/mid level winds late afternoon/evening, before flow turns sly ahead of approaching wave over the Desert SW. Already seeing cloud cover increase over the mountains ahead of the wave, though it may take until late evening for anything more than sprinkles/flurries to develop given dry lower atmosphere. After midnight, upward motion and moisture increase as surface low spins up over nern NM and mid level circulation develops over sern CO. As a result, expect at least some pockets of moderate snow along the Continental Divide by sunrise Thu, with scattered snow showers elsewhere across the mountains and valleys. During the day Thu, wave lifts newd across CO, with rain/snow showers most locations, though areas along and south of Highway 50 may see only a brief flurry/sprinkle in the morning before activity lifts quickly northward by afternoon. Snow level starts the day around 4000 feet, rising to near 6000 feet by afternoon. Snow looks heavy enough for an advisory in the eastern San Juans (Wolf Creek Pass area), where 4-8 inches is expected by late evening Thu. Elsewhere, accums of 2-4 inches look possible over most of the mountains/Teller County/Palmer Divide, 1-3 inches most mountain valleys, an inch or 2 around Colorado Springs, a trace to an inch at most along the remainder of the I-25 corridor and little or no snow on the plains where temps stay too warm for much. Max temps should warm to well above freezing over most valleys/along I-25 and across the plains, limiting road impacts to mainly the mountains, though some slushy spots will be possible along/near the Palmer Divide/Monument Hill, especially Thu morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Thursday night-Saturday...Latest model data is coming more in line with each other with a broad upper trough translating across the northern tier as southern stream energy develops a closed upper low across southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon, which then continues to lift out across west central Texas by Saturday afternoon. The southern shift in the placement of the passing upper low in all model data brings higher confidence for higher impact weather with heavy, wet snowfall across the higher terrain south of the Highway 50 Corridor. Pattern supports widespread showers developing over and near the higher terrain through the day Friday within modest southerly flow aloft. The passing northern stream system sends a cold front across eastern Colorado through the day Friday, with increasing sfc-h7 east to northeast flow bringing the focus of moderate to heavy snow fall across the Sangre and Wet Mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor Friday night through Saturday morning, before precipitation wanes from north to south through the day Saturday. The north to northeast sfc-h7 flow may also bring a period of moderate snowfall to the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region Friday night, before moisture and lift wane through the day Saturday. The more cohesive model data continues to bring higher confidence of up to a foot of snow across the eastern San Juans through the Sangres and Wets, with 4 to 8 inches possible across the Raton Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor. Snowfall of 3 to 6 inches remains possible across the rest of the higher terrain, the Palmer Dvd and the Wet Mtn Valley, with 1 to 2 inches possible across the high mountain valleys into the rest of the I-25 Corridor. Temperatures through the period to remain below seasonal levels, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain both Friday and Saturday. Sunday-Wednesday...Latest models continue to bring upper level ridging across the region, supporting warmer, near seasonal temperatures, and drier weather for the late weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will persist into this evening at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB, with breezy northeast winds and increasing mid-level clouds. KALS: For KALS, there is a chance for a few showers between 09-12Z, have included a PROB30 group. Winds increase as clouds drop towards MVFR, with southwest gusts around or just above 25 knots Thursday afternoon. Snow showers should mainly stay over the mountains, though cannot rule out a brief light snow shower at the terminal entirely. KCOS and KPUB: At KCOS and KPUB, VCSH will persist Thursday morning, but no precip is expected at either terminal at this time. Cloud cigs will drop towards MVFR by about 12Z. Winds will remain breezy and generally northeasterly through the afternoon-evening hours. Snow showers are more likely around KCOS Thursday afternoon as well, but current confidence in coverage of showers over the Palmer Divide has only warranted a PROB30 group for KCOS at this time. If showers do hit the terminal, falling snow will result in lowered vis and MVFR to high-end IFR conditions for a few hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ068. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOORE