911
FXUS65 KPUB 012336
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will slowly diminish late this afternoon and this evening.

- Still some bursts of wind/snow along the Continental Divide this
  evening, ending by early Wed morning

- High fire danger returns to Fremont County and the southern
  I-25 corridor Wed morning.

- Active weather pattern brings snow and rain across south central
  and southeast Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

- Higher confidence (60-80 percent) in higher impact weather for
  Friday night and Saturday, with heavy, wet snowfall across the
  SE Mtns and Raton Mesa.

- Warmer and drier weather late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Upper level jet over srn Colorado this afternoon will shift south
and east this evening as short wave trough lifts eastward through
the central Rockies. Strong/damaging winds under the jet have
been rather spotty so far, though ALS/TAD/LAA have all gusted over
50 kts as of midday, and many areas have seen 40-50 kt gusts. HRRR
and surface obs (50 mph gusts along I-25 south of PUB) suggest one
more pulse of stronger winds possible 2-4 pm, so reluctant to take
the High Wind Warning down at this point, though suspect an early
cancellation is still likely after 4 pm as jet moves away and winds
drop-off by early evening. Isolated showers have served to moisten
the boundary layer around PUB and COS, keeping min RH above the 15
percent critical fire weather threshold so far, while areas south
and east have dried out enough to verify the Red Flag Warning. Will
keep warning going into early evening, as bulk of the area will see
critical conditions. Wind and snow along the Continental Divide will
continue into the evening, then conditions improve slowly after
sunset as wave moves away, leading to diminishing winds/snowfall.
Dry air mass will lead to near/below freezing mins at most
locations, despite winds staying breezy through the night.

On Wednesday, main concern is return of critical fire weather
conditions along I-25, especially from mid-morning into early
afternoon, as very dry air mass spreads across the region. Winds
will be marginal, but HRRR and a good deal of statistical guidance
suggest 25-30 mph gusts through the Arkansas Valley from Canon
City to Pueblo, and from La Veta Pass east to Walsenburg, mainly in
the 15z-21z time frame. Will hoist a Red Flag Warning for I-25 from
Pueblo south and include Fremont County as well, though won`t spread
anything farther north and east, as winds drop off quickly enough in
the afternoon to keep the 3 hr duration threshold from being met.
wanes. Air mass back toward the Continental Divide moistens slightly
toward late afternoon as next upper wave approaches, and expect a
few showers over mainly the higher peaks by 00z. Looks too dry
farther east for any activity, at least during the daytime hours.
Sun and mixing will tend to offset cooling mid-level temps, leading
to maxes in the seasonably cool 40s/50s/60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Latest model data supports
a broad upper trough digging across the West Coast and into the Great
Basin, with short wave energy lifting out across southwestern Colorado
into northeastern through the day Thursday. Induced lee low across the
southeast plains leads to moderate east to northeast sfc-h7 flow, as
moisture and uvv increase across the region leading to widespread
precipitation developing over and near the higher terrain Wednesday
night, spreading north and east through the day Thursday before
winding down late Thursday afternoon and evening as said wave continues
across to move north and east of the area. Snow levels are likely below
4000 feet into early Thursday morning before rising back to near 6500
feet Thursday afternoon, there is the potential for snowfall of 3 to 6
inches across the Contdvd into the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak
region and SE Mtns, with 1 to 3 inches possible across the Upper Arkansas
River Valley, the San Luis Valley, and the Wet Mtn Valley into the I-25
Corridor, with little or no snow expected across the southeast Plains.
With that said, may need winter weather advisories across portions of
the higher terrain, with the potential for travel impacts for the
Thursday morning commute.

Friday-Saturday...There is increasing confidence of higher impact
weather in the Friday night and Saturday timeframe, especially
across the higher terrain south of the Highway 50 Corridor, and
northern portions of the Pikes Peak region, as the main upper low
digs south across southern New Mexico Friday night before lifting
out across western Texas on Saturday. Pattern supports widespread
precipitation developing across the region within modest southerly
flow aloft Friday night, with the focus of moderate to heavy snow
fall shifting from the southwest mtns into the southeast mtns
through the day Saturday. Developing north to northeast flow aloft
may also bring a period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall
to the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region Friday
night. The amount of cold air associated with this system still needs
to worked out, though current forecast brings up to a foot of snow
across the eastern San Juans through the Sangres and Wets, with 4
to 8 inches across the rest of the higher terrain into the Palmer
Dvd and Raton Mesa through the day Saturday. Those with travel plans
across the higher terrain should stay abreast of weather through
the early weekend.

Sunday-Tuesday...Models support upper level ridging building across
the region, supporting warmer and drier weather in the offing for the
late weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. West winds are likely (80% chance) to
continue to weaken across the area as we get closer to sunset.
Expecting gusts to weaken below 40kt shortly after 00Z at KPUB, with
gusts below 25kt at KCOS and KALS after 02Z. West to northwest winds
remain elevated through the overnight hours, though gusts are likely
(80% chance) to remain under 30kt throughout the rest of the
overnight period and into our Wednesday as well. Winds weaken
further after 21Z Wednesday. Mid-level cloud cover looks to
persist off and on throughout the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-
060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ059-
061-068.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ222-
228>230.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ086>088-
093-094-097>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR