


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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906 FXUS65 KPUB 082330 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 530 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, with a strong storm or two possible near the eastern border. - Hot and generally dry Wednesday and Thursday. - Critical fire weather conditions possible for portions of the area Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure sits over the western US, with the high center located near the Four Corners. Isolated convection has initiated over the higher terrain this afternoon under lighter, more dry northwest flow aloft. Interesting llvl moisture gradient across the area, with 50 dewpoints along the KS border, 40s back towards Pueblo and Trinidad, but then 20s and 30s for those areas where winds have picked up such as Walsenburg and Colorado Springs. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the mid 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Tonight...The ridge starts to flatten slightly overnight as an upper low pushes onshore across northern CA and southern OR. Models indicate that the ongoing convection this evening should quickly shift to the east since the best moisture (1000-1200 CAPE) and shear (~30 kts) will be found along the KS border. SPC has maintained a Marginal area for severe weather across the far eastern plains, so seems reasonable that a stronger storm or two will be possible across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties this eve until 10 or 11 PM. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch in diameter and brief periods of heavy rain. Elsewhere, isolated convection will be possible until sunset. Plan on clearing skies overnight, with minimum temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Wednesday...The upper low will push across southern OR and northern NV tomorrow, while the upper ridge, though flattening, remains across the Rockies. This will provide for a hot day with very isolated high-based convection possible over the higher terrain. Max temps are forecast to warm into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 95-105F for the plains. This would be around 5 degrees above normal for the high valleys, and 5-10 degrees above normal for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Wednesday Night - Thursday: For the later part of the midweek period, active weather is expected for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge in place will start to flatten Wednesday night in response to an approaching wave, with the wave passing over through Thursday. With this flow pattern, forcing will increase over the area, particularly orographic forcing. With that all said, while dry conditions are expected Wednesday night for many, isolated showers are expected along the higher terrain as forcing increase. Then for Thursday, showers and storms will increase in coverage as the waves passes over, first initially along the mountains, and then pushing east as the increased flow helps to push them off the higher terrain. Frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, and brief periods of heavy rain can be expected with any more organized storms. Otherwise, breezy winds and periods of increased mid to high level clouds are anticipated during this timeframe. Looking at temperatures, warm and above seasonal temperatures are anticipated for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. Friday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather is expected each day for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become more westerly to northwesterly over the region in response to a large high pressure building across the far southwestern US. Forcing will remain heightened with this pattern, particularly orographic forcing. With forcing, and moisture, still in place, daily afternoon showers and storms are expected, though with the greatest coverage remaining along the mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond that, breezy winds and increased afternoon cloud cover are anticipated each day. As for temperatures, values Friday will drop to near seasonal values thanks to a cold front passaged late Thursday, with temperatures Saturday dropping to below seasonal values thanks to another cold front passage late Friday. Sunday and Monday however rebound quickly, with near to slightly above seasonal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all three sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Gusty and variable outflow winds due to high based rain showers will be possible over and near KALS for the next few hours, though lightning is not expected on station at this time. Outside of this shower related activity, winds are expected to remain fairly light and diurnally driven throughout the remainder of the forecast for all three terminals. Mostly clear sky conditions are likely through the overnight hours, with the return of scatter mid-level decks for Wednesday afternoon. Chances for showers, thunderstorms, and outflow winds decrease even further for Wednesday as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Given the continued hot and dry conditions anticipated for Thu, along with increasing winds as the ridge starts to break down, decided to go with a Fire Weather Watch for Fire zones 220, 223 and 224 from noon until 9 PM. That may be a bit long, but can be cancelled earlier if conditions warrant. Collaborated with surrounding WFOs, who also hoisted fire weather highlights. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ220-223-224. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR FIRE WEATHER...MOORE