016
FXUS65 KPUB 081742
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1042 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool today and cold tonight, with another system bringing snow
  to the area by Thursday morning.

- Snow will be possible on Thursday, especially over the
  Ramparts/Palmer Divide, and southern Sangres/Raton Mesa.

- Snow will be possible over the central mountains on Saturday
  during the day, then spread southeastward across the area
  Saturday night and Sunday.

- Overall trend in temperatures remain below the seasonal
  average through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Today and Tonight...

A brief period of upper-level ridging will move over our area today,
allowing for sunnier skies and warmer temperatures. Highs will still
be cool, with 30s across the lower areas and teens-20s over the
mountains. Otherwise, conditions will generally be dry as clouds
largely clear by this afternoon. The only forecast challenge for the
today period is exactly how warm our max temperatures will actually
get, with westerly flow at 700 mb and warm air advection into SE
Colorado. Have bumped up highs a few degrees to compensate.

Tonight, breezy north winds will keep cool air in place just ahead
of our next incoming system. Overnight lows will be in the teens
across the plains, and single digits to near-zero over the higher
terrain and mountain valleys. Late tonight into early Thursday, an
upper low will move south through western Colorado, bringing in more
cold air, moisture, and synoptic energy. Snow showers will kick up
across the central mountains, quickly spread to the rest of the
higher terrain and the Palmer Divide by sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Thursday through Friday...

A shortwave embedded within the broad trough over the eastern two-
thirds of the nation will drop down from the north and bring a
chance of snow, beginning initially over the central mountains very
early in the morning and then spreading southeastward throughout the
day. High res guidance is also signifying that snow will begin over
the Palmer Divide by around 4 to 6 AM, along with increasing
northerly winds, which could make for some tricky travels over this
area during the morning commute. These winds will continue to be
strong and gusty, especially over the far eastern plains, through
the evening, and then will weaken thereafter. this will be a quick
shot of precip, although with the snow being quite light and fluffy,
as well as the strong and gusty winds, conditions could periodically
mimic the characteristics of a snow squall over portions of the
Palmer Divide, and occasional whiteout conditions will be possible
for the Monument Hill/Black Forest area and eastward to the El
Paso/Lincoln county line. These gusty winds will also lead to
lower wind chill values, so be sure to bundle up very well if
going outdoors!

Given the orientation of the trough axis at the 500 mb level and 700
mb flow, The Ramparts/Palmer Divide will likely get some of the
highest snowfall totals during the daytime hours, and then the
southern Sangres/Raton Mesa area by later in the evening. For these
locations, there could be an additional 2 to 3 inches, otherwise
snow accumulations will be quite light across the rest of the CWA.
With passage of the trough, and a reinforcement of colder air,
highs will still be quite chilly, running around 10 to 15 degrees
below the seasonal value. Lows for Thursday night will also be some
of the coldest through next week, with many single digits across the
plains, and below the zero degree mark for the higher mountain
valleys.

On Friday, skies will continue to clear as temporary ridging occurs
ahead of the next approaching trough. However, with the cP airmass
still in place and only slightly modified, as well as snowpack in
locations across the plains, highs will still be around 5 to 10
degrees below average.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Increasing downsloping winds out of the southwest on Saturday ahead
of an approaching major shortwave trough to the region will allow
for temperatures to be relatively warmer, although RH values will be
high enough to where critical fire conditions will not be a concern.
There is still some disagreement with this in terms of the
progression of the trough with the deterministic models. The
ensembles continue to keep the colder temperatures locked in over
the region through the mid part of next week, thanks to the broad
longwave trough over the central/eastern CONUS remaining in place.
this major shortwave trough will be dropping southward and over SE
Colorado through the weekend, with snow beginning over the central
mountains by later in the evening. This system continues to display
that it is a little more potent, with higher QPF values. There looks
to be a better chance for snow along the I-25 Corridor, with several
inches possible through Sunday morning. Models had struggled more
from Monday and on, in terms of placement of the low. Whether or not
there is as well as another weak wave moving down, and how much
moisture is available, it is possible that some snow could continue
for some isolated areas going into Monday morning. It all depends on
which model resolves this period in the forecast the best. Slightly
beyond the forecast period, ensembles hint to a warming and drying
trend going towards the later half of next week.    -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

At KALS, VFR today and this evening, then a potential period of
MVFR/brief IFR cigs/vis due to fog after 09z. N-NE winds then
increase 14z-16z, and with increased mixing, visibility should
improve back to VFR. After 16z, VFR cigs with a vcsh as snow
showers begin to develop in the area.

At KCOS VFR today and tonight, with increasing north winds and
lowering VFR cigs after 06z as a cold front drops south through
the terminal. North winds strengthen further 14z-15z Thu, with
some gusts to 35 kts, and introduced a vcsh as well, as snow
showers spill southward over the Palmer Divide.

At KPUB, VFR today and tonight, with increasing north winds and
VFR cigs starting around 10z as cold front passes. North winds
increase further toward 16z Thu, while a low risk of a vcsh
develops as a few snow showers spread southward toward the
terminal.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...PETERSEN