666
FXUS65 KPUB 030517
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Diminishing winds and increasing clouds this evening, then
  snow showers develop over the higher terrain, mainly after
  midnight.

- Rain/snow showers across much of the area Thursday, greatest
  chance for accumulations over the mountains and Palmer Divide.

- High confidence (60-80 percent) in high impact weather from heavy
  wet snowfall across the southern mountains into the Raton Mesa
  Friday night and Saturday.

- Warmer and drier weather for the late weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Red Flag Warning verifying along the srn I-25 corridor this
afternoon, as extremely dry mixes to the surface under brisk wly
flow aloft. Still suspect we`re near peak wind now (2pm mdt), as
most models show a brief decrease in low/mid level winds late
afternoon/evening, before flow turns sly ahead of approaching wave
over the Desert SW.  Already seeing cloud cover increase over the
mountains ahead of the wave, though it may take until late evening
for anything more than sprinkles/flurries to develop given dry lower
atmosphere. After midnight, upward motion and moisture increase as
surface low spins up over nern NM and mid level circulation develops
over sern CO. As a result, expect at least some pockets of moderate
snow along the Continental Divide by sunrise Thu, with scattered
snow showers elsewhere across the mountains and valleys.

During the day Thu, wave lifts newd across CO, with rain/snow
showers most locations, though areas along and south of Highway 50
may see only a brief flurry/sprinkle in the morning before activity
lifts quickly northward by afternoon. Snow level starts the day
around 4000 feet, rising to near 6000 feet by afternoon. Snow looks
heavy enough for an advisory in the eastern San Juans (Wolf Creek
Pass area), where 4-8 inches is expected by late evening Thu.
Elsewhere, accums of 2-4 inches look possible over most of the
mountains/Teller County/Palmer Divide, 1-3 inches most mountain
valleys, an inch or 2 around Colorado Springs, a trace to an inch at
most along the remainder of the I-25 corridor and little or no snow
on the plains where temps stay too warm for much. Max temps should
warm to well above freezing over most valleys/along I-25 and across
the plains, limiting road impacts to mainly the mountains, though
some slushy spots will be possible along/near the Palmer
Divide/Monument Hill, especially Thu morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thursday night-Saturday...Latest model data is coming more in line
with each other with a broad upper trough translating across the
northern tier as southern stream energy develops a closed upper low
across southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon, which then continues
to lift out across west central Texas by Saturday afternoon. The
southern shift in the placement of the passing upper low in all model
data brings higher confidence for higher impact weather with heavy, wet
snowfall across the higher terrain south of the Highway 50 Corridor.
Pattern supports widespread showers developing over and near the higher
terrain through the day Friday within modest southerly flow aloft.
The passing northern stream system sends a cold front across eastern
Colorado through the day Friday, with increasing sfc-h7 east to
northeast flow bringing the focus of moderate to heavy snow fall across
the Sangre and Wet Mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor Friday night
through Saturday morning, before precipitation wanes from north to
south through the day Saturday. The north to northeast sfc-h7 flow
may also bring a period of moderate snowfall to the higher terrain
of the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region Friday night, before moisture
and lift wane through the day Saturday. The more cohesive model data
continues to bring higher confidence of up to a foot of snow across
the eastern San Juans through the Sangres and Wets, with 4 to 8 inches
possible across the Raton Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor. Snowfall
of 3 to 6 inches remains possible across the rest of the higher terrain,
the Palmer Dvd and the Wet Mtn Valley, with 1 to 2 inches possible
across the high mountain valleys into the rest of the I-25 Corridor.
Temperatures through the period to remain below seasonal levels, with
highs in the 30s and 40s across the lower elevations and mainly in
the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Wednesday...Latest models continue to bring upper level ridging
across the region, supporting warmer, near seasonal temperatures,
and drier weather for the late weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions will persist into this evening at KALS, KCOS, and
KPUB, with breezy northeast winds and increasing mid-level clouds.

KALS: For KALS, there is a chance for a few showers between 09-12Z,
have included a PROB30 group. Winds increase as clouds drop towards
MVFR, with southwest gusts around or just above 25 knots Thursday
afternoon. Snow showers should mainly stay over the mountains,
though cannot rule out a brief light snow shower at the
terminal entirely.

KCOS and KPUB: At KCOS and KPUB, VCSH will persist Thursday morning,
but no precip is expected at either terminal at this time. Cloud
cigs will drop towards MVFR by about 12Z. Winds will remain breezy
and generally northeasterly through the afternoon-evening hours.
Snow showers are more likely around KCOS Thursday afternoon as well,
but current confidence in coverage of showers over the Palmer Divide
has only warranted a PROB30 group for KCOS at this time. If showers
do hit the terminal, falling snow will result in lowered vis and
MVFR to high-end IFR conditions for a few hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE