906
FXUS65 KPUB 082330
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, with a strong
  storm or two possible near the eastern border.

- Hot and generally dry Wednesday and Thursday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible for portions of the
  area Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure sits over the western US,
with the high center located near the Four Corners. Isolated
convection has initiated over the higher terrain this afternoon
under lighter, more dry northwest flow aloft. Interesting llvl
moisture gradient across the area, with 50 dewpoints along the KS
border, 40s back towards Pueblo and Trinidad, but then 20s and 30s
for those areas where winds have picked up such as Walsenburg and
Colorado Springs. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the mid 70s to
mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Tonight...The ridge starts to flatten slightly overnight as an upper
low pushes onshore across northern CA and southern OR. Models
indicate that the ongoing convection this evening should quickly
shift to the east since the best moisture (1000-1200 CAPE) and shear
(~30 kts) will be found along the KS border. SPC has maintained a
Marginal area for severe weather across the far eastern plains, so
seems reasonable that a stronger storm or two will be possible
across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties this eve until 10 or
11 PM. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds to 60 mph, hail up
to 1 inch in diameter and brief periods of heavy rain. Elsewhere,
isolated convection will be possible until sunset. Plan on clearing
skies overnight, with minimum temps in the 40s to around 50F for the
high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Wednesday...The upper low will push across southern OR and northern
NV tomorrow, while the upper ridge, though flattening, remains
across the Rockies. This will provide for a hot day with very
isolated high-based convection possible over the higher terrain. Max
temps are forecast to warm into the 80s to around 90F for the high
valleys, and 95-105F for the plains. This would be around 5 degrees
above normal for the high valleys, and 5-10 degrees above normal for
the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Wednesday Night - Thursday: For the later part of the midweek
period, active weather is expected for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. The ridge in place will start to flatten
Wednesday night in response to an approaching wave, with the wave
passing over through Thursday. With this flow pattern, forcing will
increase over the area, particularly orographic forcing. With that
all said, while dry conditions are expected Wednesday night for
many, isolated showers are expected along the higher terrain as
forcing increase. Then for Thursday, showers and storms will
increase in coverage as the waves passes over, first initially along
the mountains, and then pushing east as the increased flow helps to
push them off the higher terrain. Frequent lightning, gusty outflow
winds, and brief periods of heavy rain can be expected with any more
organized storms. Otherwise, breezy winds and periods of increased
mid to high level clouds are anticipated during this timeframe.
Looking at temperatures, warm and above seasonal temperatures are
anticipated for much of south central and southeastern Colorado.

Friday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, active
weather is expected each day for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Flow will become more westerly to
northwesterly over the region in response to a large high pressure
building across the far southwestern US. Forcing will remain
heightened with this pattern, particularly orographic forcing. With
forcing, and moisture, still in place, daily afternoon showers and
storms are expected, though with the greatest coverage remaining
along the mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond that,
breezy winds and increased afternoon cloud cover are anticipated
each day. As for temperatures, values Friday will drop to near
seasonal values thanks to a cold front passaged late Thursday, with
temperatures Saturday dropping to below seasonal values thanks
to another cold front passage late Friday. Sunday and Monday
however rebound quickly, with near to slightly above seasonal
temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Gusty and variable outflow winds due to
high based rain showers will be possible over and near KALS for the
next few hours, though lightning is not expected on station at this
time. Outside of this shower related activity, winds are expected to
remain fairly light and diurnally driven throughout the remainder of
the forecast for all three terminals. Mostly clear sky conditions
are likely through the overnight hours, with the return of scatter
mid-level decks for Wednesday afternoon. Chances for showers,
thunderstorms, and outflow winds decrease even further for Wednesday
as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Given the continued hot and dry conditions anticipated for Thu,
along with increasing winds as the ridge starts to break down,
decided to go with a Fire Weather Watch for Fire zones 220, 223
and 224 from noon until 9 PM. That may be a bit long, but can be
cancelled earlier if conditions warrant. Collaborated with
surrounding WFOs, who also hoisted fire weather highlights.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ220-223-224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE