477
FXUS65 KPUB 172324
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
424 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain or a rain/snow mix to sweep across the southeast corner
  of the state late tonight through Monday afternoon.

- Chances for snow showers move in for Tuesday across the Continental
  Divide and the Pikes Peak region, though accumulations look
  to be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

Currently...Mostly sunny but cool day across the forecast area, as a
closed upper low was located just south of AZ, pushing enhanced
cloud cover and moisture up into NM. A band of mid and high level
clouds were streaming across the far southeast corner of the state,
but overall abundant sunshine was on tap. Temps as of 1 PM were in
the 40s for most locations, though it had warmed to around 50F near
the Kansas border.

Tonight...The southern low is expected to track up into southeastern
NM through the night, spreading some rain showers and possibly even
a rain/snow mix up across the southeast corner of CO through the
late night hours. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave will push
across the Pacific NW. Overnight low temps will cool into the 10-20
degree range for the high valleys, and 20s to around 30F for the
plains.

Tomorrow...As the southern low ejects across the TX and OK
Panhandles and into the central US through the day, rain showers or
a rain/snow mix will continue across the far eastern plains through
the morning, finally coming to an end soon after midday. Meanwhile,
the next incoming shortwave will start pushing into the Rocky Mt
region, bringing isolated snow showers to the central mts by late
afternoon. Any new snow amounts are expected to be negligible
initially. Plan on highs in the 40s for the high valleys, and upper
40s to upper 50s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

Monday Night and Tuesday..

Our flow aloft transitions through Monday night, as a low ejects to
our northeast, and a trough pushes in from our northwest. This will
spark chances for snow showers along the Continental Divide from
Monday evening into Tuesday as the trough approaches and passes
overhead. Overnight lows will be near normal for most locations,
with lows in the twenties across the plains and teens for high
mountain valleys. A cold front shoots south across our plains early
Tuesday morning, which will help to keep temperatures cooler.
Daytime highs on Tuesday look to top out in the 30s for mountain
valleys, the Raton Mesa, and northern El Paso County, with low 40s
expected elsewhere across the plains. Eventually, snow chances push
into the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak Peak region for Tuesday
morning through early Tuesday afternoon, though accumulations will
likely remain very light at generally 1 inch or less. Since snowfall
is expected during the daytime hours, roads are likely to remain
pretty clear with minimal impacts for the Pikes Peak region on
Tuesday. For the high country, accumulations will also be light,
though gusty winds could lead to degraded visibility in heavier snow
showers at times. Wind gusts to 45 mph will be possible across the
central mountains and the northern Sangres, with gusts to 35 mph
likely across higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Gusty
winds to 25 mph can be expected elsewhere across the forecast area.
This forecast package trended towards stronger winds than what the
NBM had to offer, given that the jet moves right overhead throughout
Tuesday and into Tuesday night.

Wednesday Onwards..

By Wednesday morning, the trough is east of us and we are in strong
north-northwesterly flow aloft. By Wednesday afternoon, stronger jet
support looks to move east, which should help winds to decrease
throughout the day. With continued (though weakening) northwest flow
aloft, daytime highs on Wednesday look to remain below normal. This
will mean highs topping out in the 40s for the plains and 30s for
mountain valleys. Ridging builds in over the area for Thursday
through Saturday, which will help us to gradually warm up throughout
the second half of the week and into the weekend. Rain and snow
chances are not expected from Wednesday through Saturday, though
models are beginning to hint at the possibility of another system by
the end of next weekend, or beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 421 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven through late tomorrow morning. By tomorrow
afternoon, a cold front will be pushing across the region, and
winds will take on a northwesterly component at KCOS and KPUB by
the mid afternoon time period

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH