704
FXUS65 KPUB 210939
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued hot today, with isolated thunderstorms possible across
the higher terrain.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday
  across the higher terrain, spreading into the Plains. Temperatures
  remain hot.

- Cooler and more active weather into early next week. Some
  stronger storms and flash flooding concerns will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Currently...quiet weather conditions have spread across southern
Colorado early this morning, with mostly clear skies and mild
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.  A few degrees of cooling,
down into the the 50s and 60s are expected through daybreak.

Today and tonight...upper level high pressure will continue to spin
across the Four Corners region through tonight.  Weak embedded
energy in northerly flow aloft will move across western Colorado
this afternoon, which may spark a few weak showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain.  The main concerns
out of this isolated activity will be lightning and gusty outflow
winds near 40 mph.  Any thunderstorms that do develop will dissipate
quickly this evening, with dry conditions prevailing overnight.
Temperatures will continue to be hot across the region this
afternoon, with mainly 90s across the Plains, and upper 80s to near
90 across the San Luis Valley.  Mild temperatures are once again
forecast overnight, with 50s and 60s across the lower elevations.

Friday...the upper level high is forecast to shift westward into
Utah through Friday afternoon, with an upper wave dropping south
across Colorado during the afternoon hours.  An uptick in shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected by Friday afternoon, with
thunderstorms development across the higher terrain, into the Pikes
Peak Region.  Moisture will be slightly improved with PWAT values
rising to near 0.8 inches across much of Colorado.  Instability will
be marginal, with most guidance suggesting 500-1000 j/kg over the
Mountains and Pikes Peak Region.  Shear will also be on the increase
with 0-6 km shear values near 20 kts.  This should allow for more
sustained thunderstorm activity, with lightning, wind gusts near 45
mph and small hail all possible.  Temperatures will remain hot
across the Plains with upper 80s to upper 90s, while the San Luis
Valley sees highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Northwest flow will set in aloft as the upper-high continues to
build just west of the Four Corners. Temperatures will cool down for
the weekend thanks to Friday`s front, with mid 70s-80s expected
across our CWA both Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, a decent plume
of monsoon moisture will head spread showers and thunderstorms
across the area both days. There will be a decent shear profile in
place, with easterly winds over the plains and northwest flow aloft,
and with the amount of moisture available we could certainly be
seeing some stronger storms, especially over the Palmer Divide and
portions of the mountains/plains interface. Over the higher terrain,
so far some heavy rain seems more likely than any severe impacts,
with the possibility for flash flooding increasing Saturday and
Sunday.

Looking into early next week, the upper high is pushed a bit further
to the south-southeast, leading to some cooler air moving in.
Current NBM highs for Monday are largely in the 70s across the area,
though a few places will still climb above 80 degrees. Chances for
more widespread precipitation will also increase as we get a better
tap of monsoon moisture into the region. As of now, these cooler and
wetter conditions appear to last towards at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the
next 24 hours.  A few thunderstorms are possible across the San Luis
Valley this afternoon, but at this time, confidence in one hitting
the terminal is low. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY