560
FXUS65 KPUB 110908
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding continue to be possible for
  the eastern Juans now through late tonight.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely across the
  high country today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
  possible over the plains today as well.

- Mountain showers expected Sunday through Friday.

- Unsettled weather expected for next week, though uncertainty
  does exist for late week systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Currently..

MRMS shows another slug of moisture making its way into our San
Juans as of 2AM. 24 hour rain totals across fire weather zone 223
(spanning the San Juans and the La Garitas) are ranging from 0.54
inches at the Blue Park RAWS to 1.37 inches at KCPW in Pagosa
Springs. Nighttime rainfall rates have been slow and steady, and
convection has been mostly weak enough to not contain any lightning.
No strikes have been have been observed in the San Juans since 11PM.
Extensive cloud cover is draped across the high country, with
clearer skies over the plains. Temperatures are in the 50s and 60s
on the plains and over the San Luis Valley. Dewpoints are in the 40s
and 50s over the plains, with 40s and 50s also present over the high
country and mountain valleys. Winds are mostly weak, and are either
following normal drainage patterns, or are generally southerly. On
our far eastern plains, southerly winds are beginning to strengthen.

Today and Tonight..

The main forecast concern for today continues to be the heavy rain
and flash flooding risk for our San Juans, where Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect through late tonight/early Sunday morning. 48 hour
rainfall totals of over 3 inches still appear possible, with upwards
of 1.4 inches having already fallen less than halfway through the
expected duration of the event. Heaviest rain rates and longest
duration still looks to remain focused over the San Juans, where
forecast QPF and PWATS are highest, and forecast lapse rates and
CAPE are most favorable for warm rain processes this afternoon.
Though heaviest precip will remain over our southwest, widespread
pops are likely across the high country and the San Luis Valley
today, especially along and west of the Continental Divide.
Scattered rain and thunderstorm chances spread east into the I-25
corridor and the eastern plains through the morning and early
afternoon hours as well. On a positive note, storms will be moving
quickly today, which may help to lessen chances for flash flooding
concerns this afternoon. CAMs continue to show another round of
showers and thunderstorms over our southwest mountains late this
evening and into the overnight hours, with most activity clearing
the area by around 3 to 6 AM or so early Sunday morning at the
latest. Have kept the Flash Flood Watch timing intact through this
timeframe for this reason.

Other than rain, storms, and potential flooding concerns for today,
temperatures are likely to climb to warmer than normal once again on
our plains. This will be especially true the further east you go
towards the Kansas border, where cloud cover will develop later in
the day. Strong southerly winds are also likely for our far eastern
plains this afternoon. Gusts to 45 mph will be possible, with gusty
thunderstorm winds also possible later this afternoon.

Temperatures remain warmer than normal through the overnight hours
tonight as moist southerly flow continues. Most of our plains look
to stay in the 50s again for tonight, with 40s for mountains
valleys. Snow levels drop down to 12,000ft or so by midnight, and
closer to 11,000ft by 6AM Sunday morning, which may allow a dusting
or so of new snow on our highest peaks overnight and as we get into
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Sunday: Active weather is expected early for Sunday, though with
quieter weather prevailing by the evening. Southwesterly flow will
be in place over south central and southeastern Colorado, with an
embedded wave ejecting to the northeast just to the north of the
region. While stronger forcing will remain to the north, orographic
forcing will persist across the higher terrain. As for moisture,
moisture content will be highest early in the day, with dry air
filtering into the region through mid to late day behind the
ejecting wave. With that all said, the forcing and early day
moisture will allow for scattered mountain showers to be ongoing,
though with shower coverage lessening through the day as the dry air
pushes in, with dry conditions by late Sunday afternoon. Snow levels
are expected to drop to around 9,000-10,000ft as cooler air spills
into the area, though with only an inch or less of any new snowfall
expected along the mountains. Beyond all of that, breezy conditions
are anticipated across the area, especially across the mountains,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies early becoming mostly clear to
partly cloudy by the afternoon. Looking at temperatures, a warm and
above seasonal day is expected for the plains as downsloping winds
overspread this region. As for the mountains and valleys, near
seasonal temperatures are expected. In addition, a cold front is
anticipated to push southward late in the day, ushering in colder
air, which will be felt areawide Monday.

Sunday Night - Friday: For the rest of the week, unsettled
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Early in the week, southwesterly flow will prevail as troughing
develops across the western US and high pressure sits across the
Texas region. Then for late week, the troughing to the west
will push eastward and over the area. Confidence is medium to
high (60-70%) in the broader synoptic pattern, though there
remains a large amount of uncertainty in how embedded waves and
troughing late in the week will ultimately evolve, lowering
overall forecast confidence some. Regardless though,
precipitation chances are anticipated to stay elevated across
the mountains, with on and off mountain showers expected, and
periods of spill over across the valleys and plains possible.
Precipitation chances will be most widespread during the Tuesday
timeframe, when a northward surge in moisture is expected.
Outside of all of that, breezy conditions are expected to
continue, especially around midweek, with periods of increased
cloud cover continuing. As for temperatures, Monday will be the
coolest day, with below seasonal temperatures for the entire
region behind the late Sunday cold front. For the rest of the
week, "rollercoaster" temperature trends are expected, with slow
warming heading into Wednesday, and then another cool down in
temperatures by the end of the week as the troughing pattern
pushes over.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Rounds of showers will spread off the mountains and into the
adjacent TAF sites with the best chance for -SHRA at KALS
overnight and again Saturday afternoon. There could be brief
MVFR conditions at KALS overnight...but cigs will likely stay
VFR on Saturday. Although less certain, KPUB and KCOS will carry
PROB30 for -SHRA Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase at all three TAF sites during the late morning with
gustier winds possible with a line of showers during the late
morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be
possible. Showers should clear to the east of the TAF sites
during the evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT