589
FXUS65 KPUB 301405
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
805 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering moisture will lead to showers and storms today.
  Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the mid-week, with
  increased chances in the late afternoon and evening hours.

- Drier conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean
  less thunderstorm coverage for many, but a marginal fire
  danger for some.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Update to allow the Flash Flood Watch for Baca and Las Animas
counties to expire as scheduled. Rain showers are very light
this morning, and are continuing to push out of the area from
southwest to northeast. Flash Flooding is no longer expected,
therefore the Watch has been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Lingering low-level moisture will be present across the area today
beneath the upper ridge. Current radar shows a wide swath of showers
and thunderstorms across our far southeast plains, producing plenty
of rainfall as things slowly move off to the northeast. Will have to
monitor for potential flash flood conditions as we move into the
early morning hours due to training, widespread storms. However,
rainfall rates and flash flood guidance do not suggest the need for
any highlights at this time.

Given lingering surface moisture, high dewpoints, and modest energy
moving across the area via an embedded wave, shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to continue today. However, there is some
decreased forecast confidence as far as coverage and timing are
concerned. Looking at the potential for the formation for stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon, SPC shows a marginal risk for severe
weather across most of our CWA. Moist air advecting in from the
southeast will increase CAPE values to over 1500 J/kg for the
eastern plains. However, overnight convection combined with
widespread cloud cover may actually serve to increase stability and
limit the extent and strength of any storms. Some of the high-res
forecast soundings do show a stable layer inversion setting up later
this morning. However, even in this case some passing showers will
still certainly be possible. The timing of precipitation over the
plains will also depend on the speed of the passing wave aloft. If
the plains see precipitation today, the best chances will be during
the late afternoon into early evening. Meanwhile, the passing wave
and lingering moisture will spark showers and thunderstorms across
portions of our higher terrain today, where the extra topographical
forcing will increase chances for storms becoming strong to severe.
Our main impacts of concern for this afternoon will be
efficient rain producing storms resulting in flash flood risks
for vulnerable areas (burn scars, debris flow areas, etc.).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The forecast period begins with GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble
agreement that a mid-level ridge will be centered over the OK-TX
border with a weak trough to the NW, with its axis centered over
Idaho and Montana. This will put southeastern Colorado in a
southwesterly flow on Monday with models indicating a short wave
will push across the San Luis Valley earlier in the day and
into the I-25 corridor and southeastern Plains late Monday
afternoon into the evening. This mid-level forcing, coupled
with increased moisture in a southwesterly flow will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop initially over
the San Juans, San Luis Valley, and central Mountains, then
later in the day along and east of the I-25 corridor.
Instability appears to be fairly weak (SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg)
with moderate shear (0-6km bulk 30- 40kts) and thus a couple of
strong to possible severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge to the southeast
will shift further east as the broad trough also shifts east of the
area. This will put the area in more of a zonal flow into the mid-
week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms possible each day. An
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out in this period
for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the SE Plains.

For the 4th of July and into the early weekend, a mid-level trough
is anticipated to pass north of the area and put the area in more of
northwesterly mid-level flow. This coupled with high pressure in
place should allow for a mostly dry Thursday across the area. A
marginal fire weather threat will enter the forecast Thursday, as RH
values drop to critical values, but winds may not quite be strong
enough to necessitate fire weather products. A cold front is
progged to push south across the area Thursday night. Thursday night
and into the weekend, ensembles are hinting at more increased
humidity and ultimately shower and thunderstorm activity over the I-
25 corridor and eastward across the SE Plains.

For temperatures, forecast is closest to the National Blend of
Models (NBM). Expect highs to be around 5 degrees above normal
Monday through Thursday. In the wake of the front, highs will be 5-
10 degrees below normal on Friday, returning closer to normal values
for the weekend. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 759 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For KCOS..IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected for the next couple
of hours, with improvement to VFR conditions likely after 16Z.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and this evening, mainly between 21Z and 03Z. Gusty
outflow winds and lightning will be possible near and over
station with storms today.

For KPUB and KALS..MVFR ceilings will be possible off and on for
the next couple of hours, with improvement to VFR conditions
likely after 16Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
this afternoon and this evening, mainly between 22Z and 03Z at
KPUB and between 20Z and 00Z at KALS. Gusty outflow winds and
lightning will be possible near and over both stations with
storms today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...EHR