584
FXUS65 KPUB 162346
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers this afternoon and again Saturday for high
  elevations, mainly for the Central Mountains.

- A couple of thunderstorms will be possible on the Plains
  Saturday afternoon, and elevated meteorological fire weather
  conditions will be present across the San Luis Valley.

- Meteorologically, critical fire weather conditions return
  Sunday.

- Mountain showers return Sunday, and expand in coverage area
  wide Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread cloud
cover across the Mountains, spreading east into the Plains.
Temperatures are warm, with mostly 70s for the lower elevations, and
60s for the mountain valleys.  Winds have been breezy, with gusts
near 30 to 35 mph for the higher elevations, down into the gap wind
prone areas.

Rest of today and tonight...quick moving upper ridging will spread
across Colorado this evening and overnight, moving east into Kansas
by morning.  Weak energy moving through the flow may generate a
couple of snow showers over the Central Mountains north of
Cottonwood Pass into this evening, with little if any impacts. Any
snow showers should dissipate with sunset.  Winds across the region
should subside this evening, as the gradient eases overhead with the
ridging.  At the surface, a lee cyclone is forecast to develop near
Trinidad, shifting winds northeasterly for most of the Plains.
Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s across the Plains, and
30s over the San Luis Valley by morning.

Saturday...the upper ridging will shift east into the Central
Plains early Saturday, while and upper trough digs across the Great
Basin.  Flow aloft will increase out of the southwest throughout the
day.  A few snow showers will be possible by late morning through
the afternoon from the La Garita Range, north into the Central
Mountains.  Any impacts will remain confined to the higher peaks.

Across the San Luis Valley, drier air will work into the region with
elevated fire weather concerns by afternoon.  Humidity values will
fall lower teens, and wind gusts near 25 to 30  mph are forecast.
These will combine to produce critical fire weather meteorological
conditions through the afternoon.

Southeasterly flow will continue across the Plains throughout the
day.  This will help keep limited moisture in place, with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 30s.  A dryline is likely to form, as the drier
air out west mixes eastward.  Current high-res guidance, has the
boundary from the Palmer Divide, southeast to near Springfield by
mid afternoon.  Given the limited moisture, CAPE values will also be
minimal, at around 500 j/kg, with the highest totals near the Kansas
border.  High-res model guidance is sparking isolated thunderstorms
across the Plains, mainly from Kiowa, south into Baca County after 3
PM.  At this time, given the limited moisture and instability,
thunderstorms look to remain sub-severe, however, small hail to near
half an inch and outflow wind gusts to near 45 mph may be possible.
Any thunderstorms that do develop, will quickly spread east into
Kansas by the evening.

Afternoon highs will be warm, with 70s to lower 80s across the
Plains, and upper 60s to lower 70s for the San Luis Valley.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

Saturday Night: Heading into Saturday night, relatively quiet
weather is anticipated across south central and southeastern
Colorado. Increasing northwesterly flow will be in place over the
area ahead of an approaching trough. Given major forcing will still
remain further to the west, dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail through most of the evening and overnight hours. The
exception to this will be late in the overnight hours into Sunday
morning, as both flow and moisture increase, allowing for isolated
light snow showers to develop along the Continental Divide right
around sunrise. Otherwise, winds will become relatively light
overnight, with pockets of mid to high level clouds streaming across
the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be mild,
with near seasonal lows for much of the area.

Sunday: For the end of the weekend, active weather starts to make a
return to south central and southeastern Colorado. One shortwave
embedded within larger troughing will swing over the region
throughout the day. Given the increased forcing and support from
this wave, along with an uptick in mid level moisture, snow showers
are expected to bloom along the higher terrain during the day. With
the increased flow over the area, a shower being pushed across the
valleys will be possible, though will transition to all rain given
warmer surface temperatures. Elsewhere, dry conditions are
anticipated. Along with that, windy and low humidity values are
expected across the area as the wave pushes over. These factors will
allow for widespread critical fire weather conditions to materialize
throughout the day. With that said though, green-up of grasses,
shrubby, etc. is currently ongoing, and will likely limit extreme
wildfire behavior. Beyond all of that, gusty winds around 35-45 mph
are expected for south central and southeastern Colorado, with
occasional mid to high level clouds racing across the sky. Looking
at temperatures, Sunday will bring a warm and near seasonal day
thanks to downsloping winds.

Monday - Tuesday: For the start of the week, active weather
continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though will
start to decrease through Tuesday. A second shortwave will swing
southward along the western and southern periphery of the larger
troughing, and push over the area Monday, and exit eastward through
Tuesday. While the shortwave is over the area Monday, shower chances
will increase area wide given broader forcing and moisture still in
place. The greatest coverage of showers will remain along the
mountains, where forcing will be maximized. Then for Tuesday, as the
wave ejects to the east, any showers present are expected to
dissipate early in the day as forcing lessens on the backside of the
wave, with dry conditions anticipated by late Tuesday. Outside of
that, breezy conditions are expected, along with increased clouds
Monday, though quickly clearing through Tuesday. Temperatures during
this period will drop to below seasonal values for late May thanks
to a cold front that drops southward during Monday.

Wednesday - Thursday: For part of the midweek period, quieter
weather starts to make a return to south central and southeastern
Colorado. Synoptically, modest ridging to flatter westerly flow will
be in place over the area. Given the lack of major forcing with this
flow pattern, dry conditions are expected to prevail. With that said
though, a highly isolated shower can`t be ruled out along the
mountains given minor orographic forcing. Otherwise, breezy winds
and occasional high level clouds are anticipated. As for
temperatures, a rebound back up to warmer values is expected, with
much of the area returning back to near to above seasonal values by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. A weak front will pass through COS and PUB through
03Z, with brezzy east to northeast 10-20kts expected through
the early evening. Winds relax by 06Z with gusty south to
southeast winds 15-25kts expected to develop between 16Z-18Z
Saturday. Breezy southwest winds relax at ALS through the early
evening, with gusty southwest winds redeveloping by 18Z Sat.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW