298
FXUS65 KPUB 052333
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
533 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today and tomorrow, with dangerous
  heat expected through the second half of the work week.

- Slight increase in moisture over the high country expected
  for tomorrow, with isolated chances for showers and storms.

- Critical fire weather returns on Thursday over the central
  mountains.

- A cool down arrives this weekend into early next week, along with
  better chances for possible showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery reveals some mid and upper-level cloud cover over
portions of our eastern mountains and plains. This cloud cover is
helping to keep our temperatures just a few degrees cooler than
current forecast daily maximums. Conditions are very dry though,
with no returns on radar and dewpoints sitting in the 20s and 30s
for lower elevations. Leadville`s dewpoint is 4 this hour, meaning
they are 5% relative humidity. Their winds are gusting to 30 mph out
of the northwest as well. Please use extreme caution and take care
not to start a fire today in our central mountains!! Temperatures
are in the upper 80s in the Springs thanks to this cloud cover, with
low 90s in the Pueblo area, and upper 90s further east on the
plains.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist, with continued
critical fire weather conditions over the central mountains.
Overnight low temperatures will be warmer than normal, with most
plains locations staying in the 60s overnight, and upper 40s to 50s
for mountain valleys. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, with the San Luis Valley recovering to around 50% rh by
tomorrow morning, and most other locations all seeing early morning
rh values lesser than that.

Tomorrow..

Tomorrow will start out hot and dry, though some mid-level moisture
looks to stream in from the west with a short wave passing through
tomorrow afternoon. This feature will bump up our rh values briefly,
helping to ward off fire danger for tomorrow afternoon. It will also
help to bring in some chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms over the high country, especially for the La Garitas,
the Sangres, and the northern San Luis Valley. Though moisture
content will not be high with these storms, cloud cover should help
to take the edge off of our near record high temperatures. Depending
on how early cloud cover moves in over the Springs, the daily record
may hit for Wednesday`s date. It currently stands at 91F set in
2023, and our forecast calls for a high of 95. The Pueblo record is
104F, which will be a close call as well, with the forecast calling
for a cloud dependent high tomorrow of 102F. Afternoon relative
humidity values look to remain in the single digits on the plains,
with values in the teens to 20% range over the high country.

Thursday..

Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the period, with westerly
flow increasing over the area as a large upper high sits over New
Mexico. This increase in westerly flow will lead to the return of
critical fire weather conditions over our central mountains, where
west winds gusting to 30 mph and relative humidity values in the low
teens are expected. Increased west winds will also mean increased
downsloping and compressional warming on the plains on Thursday,
which will lead to even warmer temperatures. Cloud cover will also
be less abundant on Thursday. This will likely lead to higher
chances at record breaking and dangerously high temperatures, many
of which will be well into the triple digits through much of the
day. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the urban corridor of El
Paso, Pueblo, and eastern Fremont counties for Thursday, though
other portions of the area may need to be added as confidence
increases closer to the event.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Friday-Tuesday...Latest longer term models are indicating some differences
on strength and amplitude, as well as timing of another embedded wave within
stronger westerly flow across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies
through the day Friday and Saturday. However, NBM data remains consistent
of this stronger wave sending a cold front across Eastern Colorado Friday
night, bringing in cooler temperatures and better available moisture,
especially across eastern Colorado. With that said, current forecast supports
the NBM, with temperatures cooling back to around seasonal levels for the
weekend into early next week, as well as keeping daily chances of afternoon
showers and storms, into early next week, with the best coverage across
the Eastern Mtns and Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Gusty winds will weaken into the evening hours and overnight,
with winds increasing again Wednesday afternoon as mid level cloud
cover increases through the end of this forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Current Records for   Aug 5,       Aug 6,       Aug 7,      Aug 8
             ALS:   92F (2024),  91F (2023),  90F (1977),  88F (2000)
             COS:   93F (1980),  96F (2021),  97F (1980),  96F (1969)
             PUB:  102F (2022), 104F (1969), 104F (1995), 104F (1969)

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLIMATE...MW