952
FXUS65 KPUB 060106
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
706 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front tonight will bring cooler air to the area for
  Sunday.

- Mostly dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures
  expected through the long term period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Dropped Red Flag Warning as humidity values will climb above 15
percent for the remainder of the evening. Cold front racing
westward across the plains will bring a brief period of gusty
(25-35 mph) e-ne winds to areas mainly along and north of the
Arkansas River through about 9-10 pm, then winds subside
overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear
skies across much of southern Colorado, with a few cumulus over the
southern Mountains.  Temperatures are warm across the region, with
80s and 90s across the Plains.  Fire Weather conditions due to low
humidity and gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph will also continue through
this afternoon across the Pikes Peak Region, south across eastern
Fremont, Pueblo and Huerfano Counties.  Humidity values are
currently running less than 10 percent, and will continue through
this afternoon.  Those with outdoor burning activities planned
should postpone them until another day.

Tonight and Sunday...Red Flag conditions will diminish this by this
evening, as a cold front arrives from the north.  This will shift
winds from westerly to northerly across the Plains.  Humidity values
will rise this evening as temperatures cool.  Initial northerly
winds could be breezy this evening, diminishing overnight into
Sunday morning.  Overnight lows will fall into the 40s to near 50
across the Plains, with 30s to near 40 across the San Luis Valley.

Upper level high pressure will build back across the region on
Sunday.  Cooler air behind tonight`s cold front will lead to
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the
Plains.  Temperatures will likely be warmest across the San Luis
Valley, were highs will top out in the upper 70s (once again near
record highs at Alamosa).  No precipitation is forecast at this time
for southern Colorado. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Sunday Night - Friday: Mostly quiet weather is expected for south
central and southeastern Colorado through next week. An anomalously
strong ridge of high pressure will persist over the region, and
given strong and continued agreement between ensemble model
guidance, confidence remains high (80-90%) in this pattern
evolution. With the increased subsidence and modest moisture, dry
conditions are anticipated to prevail over the area. With that said
though, there is low (20%) confidence in isolated shower development
along the mountains during the later half of the week as weak
ripples/waves drift over the region in the broader flow. Beyond all
that though, relatively light winds and afternoon clouds are
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Looking at
temperatures, the October heat persist. Much of the region will
remain above seasonal temperatures with the ridge in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions expected at all three terminals over the next 24
hours.  Winds will settle on a northerly direction at KCOS and
KPUB around 00z before the cold front moves through between
02-03z. Winds may briefly gust out of the northeast at 15-25 kts
at both terminals before weakening and shifting around from the
southeast towards morning. Winds will increase at both terminals
late Sunday morning with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible in the
afternoon.

KALS will see northerly winds around 10 kts this evening weaken
and become variable overnight. The cold front pushing through
the plains appears to be too shallow to funnel through La Veta
Pass. Winds on Sunday will increase out of the southeast
around 10 kts in the mid afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT